Why Europe’s Politics Are Breaking, From France to Spain
EUROPE’S POLITICAL CRISIS · EXPLAINER
Across Europe, voters are deserting the parties that ran their countries for decades, and France and Spain show where that leads.
Europe’s long-governing parties are losing their hold on voters, and France and Spain are this autumn’s sharpest examples. France has a minority government, night curfews after riots and a nationalist front-runner for the 2027 presidency, while Spain votes on 29 November after its parliament rejected the government’s housing plan.
The same strain runs through Germany, Britain and Romania, where insurgent parties have surged, a prime minister has fallen and a court has cancelled an election. For Americans it matters because these are NATO allies and major trading partners, and because unrest and stretched budgets move the euro and the government bonds that US investors hold.
Key Facts
- —The pattern Parties that ran Europe for decades are losing voters to newcomers on the right and left.
- —France Riots, curfews and a minority government; the nationalist Marine Le Pen leads the 2027 race.
- —Spain A snap election on 29 November after parliament voted down the government’s housing decrees.
- —Germany The AfD leads national polls at 27% to 30%; the main parties refuse to govern with it.
- —The money France’s debt reached 115.7% of GDP in 2025; Romania ran the EU’s largest deficit.
- —Prediction markets France: Marine Le Pen 46% on Polymarket, 53% on Kalshi to win in 2027 (21 October, 10:34 a.m. ET) Spain: Polymarket: Feijóo 83% to become prime minister, Sánchez 14.1% (21 October, 10:24 a.m. ET).
In Plain English
- Establishment parties The centre-right, centre-left and liberal parties that have taken turns in power for decades.
- Insurgents Newer or long-marginal parties, mostly nationalist or populist, that promise to break that cycle.
- Cordon sanitaire or firewall A pledge by other parties never to govern with, or rely on, a party they call extremist; Germans call it the Brandmauer.
- Lawfare Critics’ word for using courts and legal procedure to defeat political opponents; courts and governments reject the charge.
- Constitutional court A court that rules on whether laws, elections and candidacies respect the constitution.
- Debt and deficit Debt is what a government owes; the deficit is this year’s overspend. EU rules ask for no more than 60% and 3% of GDP.
- Eurobarometer The European Commission’s regular opinion survey, run in every EU country.
The Big Picture in Plain Words
Since the Second World War, a small club of parties has run most of Western Europe: the centre-right, the centre-left and liberal kingmakers. Voters are now leaving that club, and most of them are moving to nationalist or populist newcomers, with a smaller share going to the radical left.
Three forces drive the shift, and the first is money. Germany’s economy shrank in 2023 and has barely grown since, France grew 0.8% last year, and high debts leave governments little room to ease living costs.
The second force is distrust: in a Pew Research Center survey this spring, 69% of French adults and 68% of Spaniards said they were dissatisfied with how democracy works in their country. The third is a belief among insurgent voters that the game is rigged, because their parties are fenced off by cordons, parliamentary procedure and, in a few cases, court rulings.
Defenders of the old parties see it the other way round. To them the cordons protect democracy from extremists, the courts enforce the same laws on everyone, and the turmoil reflects hard times rather than a blocked system.
This explainer tests both views against the record: court rulings, election results, official statistics and polls. It starts with France and Spain, then turns to Germany, Romania and Britain, and to the countries that do not fit the pattern.
What We Know, What Is Argued, What Is Not Known
- We know Insurgents lead national polls in France and Germany and came first in two German state elections in September.
- We know Courts have ruled on whether leading candidates could run in Romania, France and Brazil.
- It is argued Critics, including senior US officials, say Europe’s establishment uses courts, spies and cordons to keep challengers out.
- It is argued Defenders say judges applied the law to everyone and that shunning extremists is a democratic choice.
- Not known Whether Le Pen will be on the April ballot, and whether the anger outlasts better economic times.
The Argument That Voters Are Being Shut Out
The sharpest version of the argument came from Washington, at the Munich Security Conference on 14 February 2025. US Vice President JD Vance said the threat he worried about most in Europe was “the threat from within”, nine days before Germany voted.
“There is no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don’t.”US Vice President JD Vance, Munich Security Conference, 14 February 2025
On Romania, Vance said the country had “straight up canceled the results of a presidential election based on the flimsy suspicions of an intelligence agency and enormous pressure from its continental neighbors”. When Germany’s domestic intelligence agency labelled the AfD extremist in May 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote “That’s not democracy” and called the move “tyranny in disguise”.
Europe’s insurgents make the same case at home, starting with Marine Le Pen after a Paris court barred her from office with immediate effect on 31 March 2025. She said “the rule of law has been totally violated”, and her party’s president, Jordan Bardella, wrote that “French democracy is being executed”.
In Romania, Călin Georgescu, the outsider who topped the first round of the cancelled 2024 election, called the court’s ruling “practically a formalised coup d’état”. The AfD’s co-leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, called their party’s extremist label “a severe blow against German democracy”.
The Argument in Four Steps, as Its Proponents Make It
- 1 Long-ruling parties of the centre and the old left hold on to power as their voters leave.
- 2 The parties voters turn to are held back by cordons, procedure and court cases.
- 3 Unchanged policies bring deficits, debt and stagnation, which deepen the anger.
- 4 Unrest such as France’s October riots is what the gap looks like on the street.
The Case Against That Argument
Defenders of Europe’s institutions answer that every ruling the critics cite rests on laws passed by elected parliaments and applied by independent judges. Germany’s Foreign Office replied to Rubio the same day: “This is democracy”, adding that independent courts would have the final say.
Courts have also ruled for the insurgents, which gives the defenders some support. In February 2026 a Cologne court stopped the intelligence agency, for now, from calling the AfD confirmed extremist, and in July a Paris court shortened Le Pen’s ban.
Nor are insurgents always kept out of power. Giorgia Meloni, leader of the national-conservative Brothers of Italy, has run Italy since October 2022 and in September became head of the longest-lasting government in the history of the Italian republic.
Long-ruling parties of the right are punished too: in April, Hungarians replaced Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, in power since 2010, with Péter Magyar’s new Tisza party. The same anti-incumbent mood cost Labour power in Wales in May, after it had led every Welsh government since devolution in 1999.
France: A Country Without a Majority
France shows the strain at its most intense. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp lost its parliamentary majority in 2022, and the snap election he called in 2024 split the National Assembly into three rival blocs.
His prime minister since September 2025, Sébastien Lecornu, governs without a majority and must pass a 2027 budget this autumn. On 17 October about 550,000 people marched against school cuts and living costs by official count, 800,000 by the organisers’, and riots led to more than 1,200 arrests.
The money is the fault line. France ran a deficit of 5.1% of GDP in 2025, and its debt of 115.7% was the EU’s third-highest after Greece and Italy, Eurostat said on 21 October.
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally now leads the race to succeed Macron, who cannot run again, and her court case sits at the centre of the lawfare debate. On 7 July 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld her conviction over about €2.8 million (about US$3.1 million) of misused European Parliament funds.
It gave her three years in prison, two suspended, and cut her ban from office to 45 months, 30 of them suspended. She declared herself a candidate that evening, saying the other 15 months had already run.
She has also announced an appeal to the Court of Cassation, which says it could rule by early April 2027. Some jurists argue that this very appeal keeps her ineligible.
The full story, from Macron’s first victory to the riots, is in our narrative why France is in crisis. The latest protests, curfews and strike dates are in why France is protesting, and every story sits in our France in Turmoil dossier.
Spain: A Strong Economy, a Broken Majority
Spain complicates the economic story. Its economy grew 2.6% in 2025, more than twice the euro-area rate, yet Pedro Sánchez, Socialist prime minister since 2018, has called a snap election for 29 November.
The trigger was housing: on 2 October Congress voted down two decrees to extend leases and halt evictions, with the Catalan party Junts joining the conservatives against them. Corruption cases weigh too, since his former transport minister José Luis Ábalos got 24 years and 3 months in prison in June, though no court has named Sánchez a suspect.
Growth has not reached everyone: Spain’s unemployment rate, 10.0% in August, was the highest in the EU. Yet here the main beneficiary is the traditional opposition, the conservative People’s Party, which prediction markets make the clear favourite, while the national-conservative Vox competes for the same angry voters.
That makes Spain a partial counter-example: the anger is real, but voters are mostly turning to the other old party. The cases around Sánchez and the odds are explained in why Pedro Sánchez could lose his job, and the campaign is tracked in our Spain election 2026 dossier.
Germany: The Firewall Under Strain
Germany is where the cordon is most explicit. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a hard-line anti-immigration party founded in 2013, came second in February 2025 with 20.8% and now leads most national polls.
In September the AfD came first in two eastern states, with 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38.2% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but no other major party will form a government with it. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose Christian Democrats govern with the Social Democrats, says the AfD wants to “destroy” his party.
Germany’s Fight Over the AfD, Step by Step
- 18 March 2025 The outgoing parliament loosens the debt brake with more than the two-thirds majority required, before the newly elected one, where the AfD and the Left could have blocked it, meets.
- 2 May 2025 The domestic intelligence agency labels the AfD a confirmed right-wing extremist party, then pauses the label while the AfD sues.
- 29 June 2025 The Social Democrats, Merz’s coalition partner, vote to prepare a ban.
- 26 February 2026 A Cologne court bars the agency, for now, from treating the AfD as confirmed extremist.
- 9 September 2026 Merz calls a ban “a very high hurdle” and doubts it would solve the problem.
- 6 October 2026 Saxony-Anhalt’s parliament elects an AfD speaker in a secret ballot with more votes than the AfD holds.
The debt-brake vote is the critics’ favourite exhibit: in the newly elected parliament, the AfD and the Left together held more than a third of the seats, enough to block it. The outgoing parliament, where a two-thirds majority still existed, passed it instead, exempting most defence spending and creating a €500 billion (about US$560 billion) infrastructure fund.
Supporters reply that the Constitutional Court rejected emergency challenges from AfD, Left, liberal and other lawmakers, so the vote stood. Discontent is broad all the same: in ARD’s DeutschlandTrend poll published on 1 October, only 10% of Germans were satisfied with Merz’s coalition, a record low.
The economy keeps up the pressure, because Germany’s output shrank 1.0% in 2023, stagnated in 2024 and grew just 0.2% in 2025, according to Eurostat. Yet in Pew’s spring survey 60% of Germans were satisfied with how their democracy works, far more than in France, Spain or Italy.
The full story of the firewall, the courts and the ban debate is in our explainer on why Germany’s top party in the polls is kept out of power. It follows the AfD from its 2025 election result to the September state votes.
Romania: The Election a Court Cancelled
Romania is the case critics cite most. On 6 December 2024 its Constitutional Court annulled the presidential election two days before the runoff, after declassified intelligence reports alleged an undeclared online campaign and hidden funding behind one candidate.
That candidate, Călin Georgescu, a little-known nationalist outsider, had won the first round with about 23% of the vote. The ruling did not name him, but in March 2025 the electoral bureau barred him from the rerun for breaching the duty to defend democracy, and the court upheld that.
The rerun went ahead in May 2025, and the centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, beat the nationalist George Simion by 53.6% to 46.4%. The European Court of Human Rights rejected Georgescu’s complaint against the annulment in March 2025, and the Constitutional Court validated Dan’s victory.
The full account, with what the court said and what its critics argue, is in our explainer on why Romania’s court cancelled a presidential election. It also follows the criminal cases against Georgescu, which he denies.
Romania also shows the money side of the story. It ran the EU’s largest budget deficit in 2025, 7.8% of GDP, and its economy was 1.9% smaller in the second quarter of 2026 than a year earlier, according to Eurostat.
Britain: The Party That Changed Its Leader
Britain shows both the revolt and one possible answer to it. Labour won a landslide in July 2024 with 33.7% of the vote, and within a year Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK, which had won 14.3%, led national polls.
By mid-March 2026 YouGov had Labour on 17%, level with the Conservatives and behind Reform on 25% and the Greens on 19%. In May’s elections Labour lost Wales, falling to nine seats as the Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru won 43 and Reform 34.
On 22 June Keir Starmer announced he would quit, accepting his MPs’ verdict “with good grace”, and on 20 July Greater Manchester’s former mayor Andy Burnham became prime minister. In YouGov’s poll of 18 and 19 October Labour led with 27%, ahead of the Conservatives on 23% and Reform on 22%.
Defenders of the old parties read this as proof that they can recover by changing course. Critics note that Burnham is the sixth prime minister to take office since the 2016 Brexit referendum, a churn they see as a symptom of the crisis.
How the revolt and the recovery unfolded is explained in why Britain keeps changing prime ministers. It covers Reform’s surge, the loss of Wales and Labour’s rebound under Burnham.
Where the Pattern Fits, and Where It Does Not
Six More Countries
- Italy: does not fit An insurgent became the establishment: Meloni’s government, in office since 22 October 2022, is now the longest-lasting in the republic’s history.
- Austria: fits The nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) came first in September 2024 with 28.8%, but a three-party centrist coalition took office on 3 March 2025 after its coalition talks failed.
- Netherlands: mixed Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) won in 2023 and governed, then tied the liberal D66 on 26 seats in October 2025 while the other big parties refused to govern with it.
- Poland: a clash, not a cordon Conservative President Karol Nawrocki, elected in June 2025, had vetoed 37 bills by June 2026, a record, against Donald Tusk’s centrist government.
- Portugal: mixed The national-conservative Chega became the second-largest party in May 2025, but the Socialist António José Seguro beat its leader André Ventura for president in February 2026.
- Hungary: contradicts the left-right reading Voters ousted a long-ruling conservative: Péter Magyar’s Tisza party beat Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in April 2026.
The common thread is not left against right but in against out. Where insurgents enter government, as in Italy, they can become the new establishment, and in Germany, where the AfD is kept out, it has moved into first place in the polls.
The Money Behind the Anger
Debt, Deficit and Growth in 2025 (Eurostat, 21 October 2026)
- Italy Debt 136.7% of GDP · deficit 3.1% · growth 0.6%
- France Debt 115.7% · deficit 5.1% · growth 0.8%
- Spain Debt 100.5% · deficit 2.4% · growth 2.6%
- Austria Debt 80.7% · deficit 4.1% · growth 0.7%
- Germany Debt 62.8% · deficit 2.9% · growth 0.2%
- Poland Debt 59.6% · deficit 7.2% · growth 3.8%
- Romania Debt 58.9% · deficit 7.8% · growth 0.8%
- EU average Debt 81.5% · deficit 3.1% · growth 1.4%
The numbers do not line up neatly with the politics. Spain and Poland grew fastest of the countries above and still face bitter political fights, while Italy carries the heaviest debt of the large economies and has its longest-lasting government.
What the numbers do show is a squeeze. With debts this high, every budget becomes a fight over who pays, and in France that fight toppled Michel Barnier in December 2024 and François Bayrou in September 2025.
How Much Europeans Trust Their Leaders
Trust in national politics is low, but not equally low everywhere. In the Commission’s Eurobarometer survey published in May 2025, only 36% of Europeans trusted their national government, while 52% trusted the EU, the highest share since 2007.
Dissatisfied With How Democracy Works (Pew Research Center, Spring 2026)
- Greece 77%
- France 69%
- United States 69%
- Spain 68%
- Italy 62%
- Hungary 61%
- United Kingdom 51%
- Poland 47%
- Netherlands 44%
- Germany 40%
- Sweden 24%
The ranking cuts against any single story. France and Spain sit near the top, but Germans are among the most content even as the AfD leads their polls, and Americans are as unhappy as the French.
When Courts Decide Who Can Run
Court cases against leading candidates are not new, but they now come more often and with more at stake. Brazil, which many of our readers know best, went through the same argument before Europe did.
- France, 2017 Conservative front-runner François Fillon is placed under formal investigation over fake jobs weeks before the vote and finishes third with 20.01%; the courts finally sentenced him in June 2025.
- Brazil, 2023 and 2025 The electoral court bars Jair Bolsonaro from office until 2030 by five votes to two for abusing his power; in September 2025 the Supreme Court sentenced him to 27 years and 3 months for plotting a coup.
- Romania, 2024 and 2025 The Constitutional Court annuls the election Georgescu led, and the electoral bureau then bars him from the rerun.
- France, 2025 and 2026 Le Pen is barred with immediate effect, then cleared to run by the appeal court, with a further appeal pending.
- Germany, 2025 and 2026 The extremist label for the AfD is paused, then blocked for now by a court, while politicians debate a ban.
In each case the courts cited specific laws, and in each the losing side cried persecution. What we can establish is narrower than either camp claims: these rulings changed who could compete, but we found no evidence that any court acted on political orders.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, an online prediction market, give Le Pen about a 47% chance of becoming France’s next president. On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), she trades at about 54%.
In Spain, traders make the conservative Alberto Núñez Feijóo the clear favourite to replace Sánchez, at about 83%. Elsewhere the bets are closer: on Kalshi, Labour and Reform are almost level to win Britain’s next general election, at 38% and 37%.
Polymarket gives Meloni a 53% chance of leading Italy after its next vote. It puts the chance that Germany has no new chancellor before 2028 at 64%.
Prediction markets · France 2027 and the unrest
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who wins France's presidential election in 2027
Polymarket: US$154.5 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), next president: Marine Le Pen 53% · Édouard Philippe 15% · David Lisnard 11% (931,676 contracts traded).
Who reaches the runoff on 2 May 2027
Polymarket: US$403,000 traded. Two candidates go through, so these chances add up to about 200%.
France declares a state of emergency by...
Polymarket: US$208,000 traded. A state of emergency gives the government extra powers such as banning gatherings; it has not been declared.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), state of emergency: before 1 November 2026 11% · before 1 January 2027 22% (28,002 contracts traded).
France passes a national budget by 31 December 2026
Polymarket: US$19,000 traded. The 2027 budget needs a majority the government does not have.
As of 21 October, 10:34 a.m. ET (15:34 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · Spain’s 29 November election
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who becomes Spain's next prime minister
Polymarket: US$2.0 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), prime minister after the next election: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 81% · Pedro Sánchez 17% · Santiago Abascal 7% (19,795 contracts traded).
Which party wins the most seats on 29 November
Polymarket: US$121,000 traded.
Pedro Sánchez out as prime minister by...
Polymarket: US$883,000 traded. The January contracts do not count time as acting prime minister, and a successor can take office only after the new Congress meets on 23 December.
As of 21 October, 10:24 a.m. ET (15:24 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for Americans
For investors, the clearest risk is France, where a budget defeat would raise the cost of financing the third-largest debt ratio in the EU. For Washington, these votes will shape NATO budgets, trade talks and policy on Ukraine, and senior US officials have openly taken up the insurgents’ complaints.
For travellers, the visible effects are protests and strikes, above all in France around 24 October and 5 November. For Latin America, Spain’s vote matters most, because Spanish banks and companies are among the region’s largest foreign investors.
The Rio Times View · Analysis, Not News
We think Europe’s crisis is first a crisis of delivery, and that the old parties have earned much of the anger now aimed at them. Voters who see stagnant growth, dear housing and rising debt watch the same parties trade places in office, so they turn to anyone who promises to break the cycle.
Courts must apply the law to everyone, and the rulings in this piece rest on laws that elected parliaments passed. But when rulings and cordons keep landing on poll leaders, those in power must prove that the rules are neutral, the evidence public and the timing fair.
The best answer to insurgents is to govern better than they promise to, not to keep them off the ballot. Hungary in April and Britain since June show that voters will remove long-ruling parties of any colour, and will reward change when they see it.
What to Watch: Europe’s Calendar to 2027
- Saturday, 24 October 2026 France: a new national protest day called by a Yellow Vest coordination.
- Thursday, 5 November 2026 France: a nationwide strike called by the main unions, with a rail strike.
- Sunday, 29 November 2026 Spain: general election for both houses of parliament.
- By early April 2027 France: the Court of Cassation’s ruling on Le Pen’s appeal.
- Sunday, 18 April and Sunday, 2 May 2027 France: the two rounds of the presidential election.
- By the end of 2027 Italy: general election, with an earlier spring vote under discussion.
- Autumn 2027 Poland: parliamentary election, the next test for Tusk’s government.
What Is Not Known
Nobody knows whether this is a passing cycle or a lasting realignment. Labour’s recovery in Britain suggests voters can return to an old party, while the AfD’s long lead in Germany suggests some will not.
It is also unclear whether Le Pen will be on the April ballot, whether Spain’s next government will need Vox, and whether Germany will ever try to ban the AfD. We will update this explainer as each of these questions is answered.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Europe’s politics in crisis?
Voters are leaving the parties that governed for decades, angered by weak growth, high living costs and distrust of politicians. Many turn to nationalist or populist parties, which their rivals often refuse to govern with.
What does lawfare mean in European politics?
It is a critics’ word for using courts and legal procedure to defeat political opponents. Supporters of Le Pen, Georgescu and the AfD use it, while courts and governments say they are simply applying the law to everyone.
Why was Romania’s presidential election cancelled?
Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled it on 6 December 2024, citing intelligence reports alleging an undeclared online campaign and hidden funding behind one candidate. Călin Georgescu, who had won the first round, was later barred, and Nicușor Dan won the 2025 rerun.
Can Marine Le Pen run for president in 2027?
She says yes, because an appeal court on 7 July 2026 cut her ban to a period that has already run. Some jurists say her own appeal to the Court of Cassation keeps her barred, and that court may rule by early April 2027.
Will Germany ban the AfD?
No ban case is before the courts, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls a ban a very high hurdle. Only the Federal Constitutional Court can ban a party, and Merz’s Social Democrat partners want a case prepared.
Who is Britain’s prime minister now?
Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, became prime minister on 20 July 2026 after Keir Starmer resigned. In YouGov’s poll of 18 and 19 October, Labour led with 27%, ahead of the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 22%.
Which European elections are coming up?
Spain votes on 29 November 2026, and France elects a president on 18 April and 2 May 2027. Italy must vote by the end of 2027, and Poland holds a parliamentary election in autumn 2027.
Sources: Eurostat, government deficit and debt (October 2026 notification, 21 October 2026), GDP (nama_10_gdp, namq_10_gdp) and unemployment (August 2026); Pew Research Center (10 June 2026); European Commission, Standard Eurobarometer (28 May 2025); transcript of JD Vance’s Munich speech (14 February 2025); NBC News and ZDFheute on Rubio and the German Foreign Office (2 and 3 May 2025); Berliner Zeitung on Weidel and Chrupalla (2 May 2025); Public Sénat (31 March 2025) and LCP on Le Pen and Bardella; Public Sénat on the appeal ruling (7 July 2026), on the cassation appeal and on the 2027 election dates; La Libre (7 July 2026); Économie Matin on the 17 October protests; BOE, Royal Decree 806/2026; elDiario.es on the housing decrees (2 October 2026); Spain’s Supreme Court on Ábalos (June 2026).
More sources: Federal Returning Officer, 2025 election; wahlrecht.de poll table (20 October 2026); ARD-DeutschlandTrend (1 October 2026); Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania returning officer; Südostschweiz on Saxony-Anhalt (7 September 2026); Cologne Administrative Court (26 February 2026); ZDFheute on the SPD congress (29 June 2025), Merz (20 October 2025), the Constitutional Court (March 2025) and Saxony-Anhalt (6 October 2026); Stuttgarter Zeitung (9 September 2026); t-online on the debt-brake vote (18 March 2025); Euronews România (6 December 2024); OSW (9 December 2024); Europa Liberă România on the electoral bureau (March 2025); Capital.ro on the final 2025 results; gov.uk; STV News (22 June 2026); YouGov (15–16 March and 18–19 October 2026); Senedd 2026 results; Euronews on Meloni (3 September 2026) and Italy’s election timing (19 October 2026); Austrian Interior Ministry; Kiesraad; Notes from Poland (12 June and 15 October 2026); bne IntelliNews on Hungary; Expresso on Chega (28 May 2025); L’Unione Sarda on Portugal’s runoff (8 February 2026); Le Temps on Fillon; Le Club des juristes; Agência Brasil (30 June 2023); Migalhas (11 September 2025); Polymarket and Kalshi public market data and EODHD exchange rates (21 October 2026). As of 21 October 2026.
More: France in Turmoil and Spain Election 2026, our dossiers with every story, the live odds and the latest developments.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error