Vučić Says His Party Lost Serbia’s Election
Published Sunday, 25 October, 4:50 p.m. ET · Source: Aleksandar Vučić, Republic Electoral Commission (RIK)
Key Facts
- Claim: President Aleksandar Vučić said “we lost the elections”, citing a sample count, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader’s own estimate.
- Seats: He put the Student List, the ticket backed by protesting students, at 130 to 140 of 250 seats and his United Serbia list at about 105.
- Votes: He gave about 2.2 million votes for the Student List and 1.72 million for his own list.
- Status: Not an official result. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Serbia’s election body, has not confirmed any seat count.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US prediction-market platform regulated by the CFTC, prices the Student List at 96% to win, 4:48 p.m. ET (Eastern Time).
This story is part of our coverage of the Serbia Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić said on Sunday evening that his list lost the parliamentary election. He said a stratified sample, an estimate built from a representative set of polling stations, showed the student-backed list winning.
The figures are his own estimate, not an official result. Our Serbia Election 2026 coverage tracks the count, and we reported the ruling list as favoured on Saturday.
What Vučić Said
Speaking from the election headquarters of his list, “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia”, to reporters, he said: “It’s clear that we lost the elections.” He said the sample showed the Student List with between 130 and 140 seats and his own list with about 105.
He indicated that no other party would win seats beyond these two lists. A list needs 3% of the vote to enter the 250-seat National Assembly.
Vučić put his own list at about 1.72 million votes and the student list at about 2.2 million, again from the sample.
An Estimate, Not a Result
The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) runs the vote and publishes the official result. The Rio Times has not seen a RIK seat count or a full projection from CeSID or Ipsos, two Serbian polling and monitoring bodies.
Early partial counts can differ sharply from the final picture, depending on which polling stations report first. Polling stations closed at 20:00 Central European Time (CET), 3:00 p.m. ET.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, the Student List was priced at 96% to win the parliamentary election and the list led by Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party at 4% at 4:48 p.m. ET on 25 October. The market had 137,869 contracts traded.
Kalshi also prices a student-backed candidate at 67% to win the next presidential election. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and its prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you follow European politics from the United States, a defeat for a leader who has dominated Serbia for more than a decade would be a major shift in the Western Balkans. It would also test Serbia’s ties to Russia and China against its bid to join the European Union.
If you travel to Serbia, expect rallies in Belgrade while the count is finished and check your government’s travel advice.
What Is Not Known
The official seat distribution is not known. Vučić’s numbers come from a sample whose details he did not publish, and Serbian and English reports differ on the low end of his seat range.
It is also unclear how coalitions would form, since a list needs a majority of 126 seats.
Sources
Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Kalshi
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Frequently Asked Questions
Did Vučić concede the Serbian election?
He said on Sunday evening that his list lost, based on a sample count. This is his own estimate, not an official result.
How many seats did Vučić say each side won?
He put the Student List at 130 to 140 of 250 seats and his own at about 105, based on a sample. These figures come from his sample, not from an official count.
When will Serbia’s official result be published?
The Republic Electoral Commission publishes it after counting. Polls closed at 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET), and we had not seen a RIK result at the time of writing.
What do prediction markets say?
On Kalshi, the Student List was priced at 96% to win at 4:48 p.m. ET on 25 October. These are bets, not polls.