Cuba Under Pressure From Washington
Washington is squeezing Cuba with an oil blockade, sanctions and murder charges against its former leader, and this page gathers our explainers, the live odds and every Rio Times report in one place.
Key Facts
- —The squeeze Since January Washington has choked Cuba’s fuel imports and sanctioned its president and military-run firms.
- —The charges Former leader Raúl Castro, 95, faces federal and Florida charges over a 1996 shootdown.
- —Force No US attack has taken place; Trump said in September he expects a deal instead.
- —Prediction markets US strike on Cuban soil by 31 December: 8.5% (Polymarket, 21 October, 10:11 a.m. ET)
- —What it means for you Tourism stays banned for Americans, and new US rules ended group tours on 30 September.
Cuba-US tensions have hardened through 2026, as Washington squeezes the island’s oil supplies, sanctions President Miguel Díaz-Canel and pursues murder charges against former leader Raúl Castro. President Donald Trump says he expects a deal with Havana, while Cuba’s government calls the campaign economic warfare and vows to resist.
This dossier gathers our explainers, the live odds and every Rio Times report on the standoff in one place. Start with our guide to what is going on between Cuba and the United States and our answer to whether Americans can still travel to Cuba, then follow the latest developments below.
Prediction markets · Cuba and the United States
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Will the US attack Cuba?
Polymarket: US$5.4 million, US$3.6 million and US$283,000 traded. A strike counts only if a US air, drone or missile attack hits Cuban soil.
Will Cuba’s government fall?
Polymarket: US$1.8 million and US$755,000 traded. The first bet pays out only if the Communist Party loses control of the government.
Raúl Castro and the US charges
Polymarket: US$34,000 and US$41,000 traded. Raúl Castro lives in Cuba, out of reach of US courts.
Will Washington and Havana make a deal?
Polymarket: US$35,000 traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): Trump announces a trade or economic deal with Cuba before 1 January 2027, 13% (68,407 contracts traded, each paying US$1 if right).
As of 21 October, 10:11 a.m. ET (15:11 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
In Plain English
- The embargo: the US ban on most trade with Cuba, in place since the early 1960s; Havana calls it “the blockade”.
- Miguel Díaz-Canel: Cuba’s president and Communist Party leader, under US sanctions since June 2026.
- Raúl Castro: Fidel Castro’s younger brother, 95, who led Cuba until 2018.
- Treasury sanctions office (OFAC): the US agency that blacklists firms and sets the Cuba travel rules.
- Prediction markets: platforms where traders bet real money on events; prices work as probabilities, not polls.
- Sherritt Wins Fuel License for Cuba Oct 20
The US Treasury licensed fuel deliveries to Sherritt's Moa nickel operation in Cuba on 20 October, but restarting the mine needs a second license.
- Cuban Green Card Approvals Fall to 139
USCIS approved 139 Cuban Adjustment Act cases and denied 447 from April to June 2026, an approval share of 23.7%, while 342,360 cases stay pending.
- Florida Issues Warrant for Raúl Castro
Florida's attorney general says a Miami-Dade judge signed a no-bond warrant for Raúl Castro, 95, over the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue planes.
- Cubans Eye Dignity Act and Its US$7,000 Fee
A House bill backed by Miami Republican María Elvira Salazar would let long-settled migrants stay legally and help some Cubans released on an I-220A.
- Germany Unsure on Cuba Embargo Vote Oct 28
A Foreign Office reply dated 7 October says Germany's position on the 28 October UN vote on the Cuba embargo is not yet concluded. No change has been announced.
- Cuba Goods Exports Set to Fall 13%
ECLAC forecasts a 13% fall in Cuba's goods exports in 2026 against a 20% regional rise, and Cuban goods exports already fell 10% in the first half.
- Cuba Power Outages After Santa Cruz Fire: What Next
After the 16 October Santa Cruz del Norte fire, Cuba's grid has almost no spare capacity. Here is what to watch next and what could ease the squeeze.
- Cuba Dollar Rate Hits Record 800 Pesos
Cuba's informal dollar hit a record 800 pesos on 15 October, and the average state wage of 7,354 pesos is now worth about US$9.19 a month.
Our dossier on Cuba and the United States follows the oil squeeze, the sanctions, the charges against Raúl Castro and the risk of military action. The explainers come first, then the story by theme and our newest reports.
Start Here
Explainers
- What Is Going On Between Cuba and the United States?
- Can Americans Still Travel to Cuba in 2026?
- Who Runs Cuba in 2026? Raúl Castro and the US Murder Charge
- Cuba Geopolitics 2026: Who Backs Havana, Who Presses It
- Cuba Energy Crisis Explained: Why the Grid Keeps Failing
- Cuba in Latin America, Its Role, Weight and Alliances
The Story by Theme
US Pressure: Sanctions, Charges and Talks
Washington's sanctions, the fuel seizures, the charges against Raúl Castro, the talks and the military planning.
Blackouts, Fuel and the Economy
Grid failures, fuel shortages, the peso, inflation and the collapse of tourism.
Migration and Cubans in the US
Parole, green cards, deportations and the Cubans waiting in the United States.
Allies, Rivals and the UN
Mexico, Russia, China, Venezuela and the countries that vote on the embargo at the UN.
Latest on Cuba and the US
- Cuban Green Card Approvals Fall to 13920 Oct
- Florida Issues Warrant for Raúl Castro19 Oct
- Cubans Eye Dignity Act and Its US$7,000 Fee19 Oct
- Germany Unsure on Cuba Embargo Vote Oct 2819 Oct
- Cuba Goods Exports Set to Fall 13%19 Oct
- Cuba Power Outages After Santa Cruz Fire: What Next16 Oct
- Cuba Dollar Rate Hits Record 800 Pesos16 Oct
- Cuba Thermoelectric Plant Fire Hits Unit 116 Oct
- US Sanctions Cuban Bank Over Iran Ties16 Oct
- Cuba Inflation Rises to 28.44% in September15 Oct
- Cuba People Daily Life Under the Embargo14 Oct
- Cuba Denies Contract for 90 Fuel Shipments US Seized13 Oct
- Cuba Oil Law Takes Effect 19 October for Foreign Firms12 Oct
- Cuba Airports Lack Jet Fuel Until 1 November12 Oct
- Cuban I-220A Lawsuit Faces Second US Bid to Dismiss11 Oct
- Cuba Grid Splits in East as 1,680 MW Shortfall Looms10 Oct
- US Ships US$75 Million of Fuel to Cuba in August10 Oct
- US Envoy Visits Cuban Influencer Convicted on 1 October8 Oct
- US Seizes 90 Cuba-Bound Fuel Shipments7 Oct
- US Seizes US$2.8 Million of Cuba-Bound Fuel7 Oct
Dates to Watch
- Late October: the UN General Assembly votes on its yearly resolution against the US embargo.
- Friday 30 October: last day for Americans already in Cuba under the old permission for professional meetings.
- Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections decide who controls Congress, which writes the embargo laws.
- Thursday 31 December: the 2026 prediction markets on a US strike, an invasion and the fall of Cuba’s government close.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is happening between Cuba and the United States?
The United States is pressing Cuba’s communist government with an oil squeeze, sanctions on its leaders and criminal charges against former leader Raúl Castro. The two governments have held talks, but no deal has been announced.
Will the US attack Cuba?
No attack has happened and no order has been reported, although US planners have studied military options, according to CBS News. The live card on this page shows how prediction markets price a strike, updated every 20 minutes.
Can Americans still travel to Cuba?
Yes, but not as tourists, because each trip must fit a category authorised by the US Treasury, such as family visits or support for the Cuban people. Group people-to-people tours stopped qualifying on 30 September 2026.
Why does Cuba matter to the United States?
Cuba lies just south of Florida, home to a large Cuban American community, and its crisis shapes US migration, security and sanctions policy. Washington also objects to Cuba’s ties with Russia, China and Iran, which it cited when it declared a national emergency in January.