Published Monday, 26 October, 2:15 p.m. ET · Source: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Ipsos polling firm, CeSID election monitor, Kalshi prediction market
Key Facts
- Count: RIK, Serbia’s election commission, has tallied 97.5% of stations: the student ticket 52.73%, leader Vučić’s ticket 39.15%.
- Gap: The students lead by 583,849 votes; Dačić’s Socialist Party, at 2.17%, misses the 3% seat threshold.
- Not final: RIK’s tally lists votes, not seats, and no final result has been declared.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prices cardiologist Ilija Srdanović at 31% for prime minister.
A protest movement that began with a collapsed station roof is beating the Serbian Progressive Party, which has run the country for 14 years. With almost every polling station counted, the margin is well over half a million votes.
RIK, the Republic Electoral Commission, updated its tally at 2:05 p.m. ET on Monday, 7:05 p.m. in Belgrade. It has now processed 8,181 of 8,392 polling stations, or 97.5%.
Why it matters abroad: Serbia is an EU candidate that buys Russian gas and trades with China under a free-trade deal, so a new government tests all three ties. Our earlier coverage: election day, what happens next and the previous count.
How Big Is the Lead?
The Student List has 2,266,939 votes, or 52.73%. It is the ticket of a movement born in Serbia’s universities, led by Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist from Novi Sad.
“Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” has 1,683,090 votes, or 39.15%. Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia’s long-time leader, resigned the presidency in September to run for prime minister.
That leaves the students 583,849 votes ahead. At the last count, 7,926 stations, the gap was about 514,000 votes and the students stood at 52.19%.
Do the Socialists Miss Parliament?
Third place belongs to “Ivica Dačić – Stability Factor”, the list of the Socialist Party. Ivica Dačić, its leader, has been a partner of the ruling camp for years.
The list has 93,104 votes, or 2.17%. Most lists need 3% to win seats, so on this count the Socialists stay out of parliament, as we reported on Sunday.
Every other list is below 1%.
What Happens Before It Is Official?
RIK’s tally lists votes, not seats, and it has not declared a final result. About 211 stations are still to be processed, and the percentages can still shift a little.
Ipsos, a polling firm, and CeSID, the Center for Free Elections and Democracy, a Serbian election monitor, projected on Sunday night that the students would win about 140 of 250 seats. A majority needs 126.
The official split will come only after the final count. Until then, treat every seat figure as an estimate.
What it means for you: an investor or diplomat should expect a government of newcomers to office, and an untested line on Moscow, Beijing and Brussels. The first signals will come from who the students name as prime minister.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator, puts Srdanović at 31% to become prime minister. Only 37,436 contracts have traded, so the price is thin (read 2:09 p.m. ET, 26 October).
Ivica Dačić, the Socialist leader, trades at 10%. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is winning Serbia’s election?
The Student List, with 52.73% to 39.15% for Vučić’s list, on RIK’s count of 97.5% of polling stations. RIK has not yet declared a final result.
Will the Socialists enter parliament?
Not on this count. They have 2.17%, below the 3% most lists need to win seats.
Sources: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) results page, 26 October, 7:05 p.m. Belgrade time; Ipsos and CeSID projection, 25 October; Kalshi, read 26 October.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief