Spain’s Right Leads Polls With Vote Nearing
Key Facts
- Latest poll. Pollster 40dB for Spain’s El País newspaper: conservative PP 31.5%, Socialist PSOE 29.4%, Vox 18.8%.
- Split verdict. Three of five polls published on 12–13 November put the PP first; the state-run CIS puts the PSOE first.
- Majority. A party needs 176 of 350 seats in Congress, Spain’s lower house; no poll shows anyone there alone.
- Market odds. Polymarket, 12:22 p.m. ET on 13 November: Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, 84.5% to be prime minister; Pedro Sánchez, the PSOE leader, 11.8%.
- Election day. Sunday, 29 November 2026; a debate on Monday, 16 November is not yet confirmed.
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
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Conservative PP Ahead in Most Surveys
Spain's conservative Partido Popular (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leads most polls published on 12 and 13 November ahead of the 29 November general election, as our Spain Election 2026 hub tracks. The latest, from pollster 40dB for the newspaper El País and the radio network Cadena SER, was published on Friday, 13 November and puts the PP at 31.5% and the Socialist Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez at 29.4%.
That survey projects 113–121 seats for the PSOE in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies, where 176 seats make a majority. Seat ranges for the PP differ between reports, so we leave them out.
It gives the conservative party Vox 18.8%, or 61–70 seats, and the left-wing alliance Sumar, a PSOE partner, 5.1%.
Pollsters Disagree on the Winner
Winston, a pollster working for the news site Artículo14, also published on 13 November and found the PP at 31.1% against 26.4% for the PSOE. Sigma Dos, polling for the newspaper El Mundo, published on 12 November and had the PP at 30.8% and the PSOE at 25.3%.
Two pollsters point the other way. SW Demoscopia, a Spanish polling firm, published on 12 November, has the PSOE at 31.5% and the PP at 28.4%, while the CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas), the state pollster, has the PSOE at 33.3% and the PP at 25.5%, with 134–143 seats for the Socialists.
The Rio Times poll tracker’s weighted average of the pollsters’ own seat estimates, as of 13 November, is PP 128, PSOE 112 and Vox 65. That would give the PP and Vox together about 193 seats, 17 above the 176-seat majority.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, Alberto Núñez Feijóo stood at 84.5% to become Spain’s next prime minister at 12:22 p.m. ET on 13 November. Pedro Sánchez was at 11.8% and Santiago Abascal, the Vox leader, at 2.1%, with about US$3.8 million traded.
A separate Polymarket contract on which party wins the most seats had the PP at 81.5%, with about US$523,000 traded. These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Dates That Matter Next
Sánchez called the early election on 5 October, and Spaniards vote on Sunday, 29 November. A successor can take office only after the new Congress meets on 23 December.
The PP proposed a head-to-head debate between Feijóo and Sánchez on Mediaset, a private broadcaster, on Monday, 16 November. Both parties accepted it in principle, but it is not final.
The PSOE ties that debate to a four-way debate on public broadcaster RTVE on 26 November, which the PP has rejected as of 8 November. The PSOE says it will not veto any broadcaster.
What It Means for US Readers
A PP-Vox government would shape Spain’s stance on EU budget rules and migration. Spain’s election result moves European markets, so US investors in European funds follow the polls closely.
A majority in Congress needs 176 of 350 seats. The tracker’s PP and Vox average of about 193 seats still falls short of the 210 seats (three-fifths) needed in Congress, and also in the Senate, for most constitutional reforms.
What Is Not Known
It is not confirmed that the 16 November debate between Feijóo and Sánchez will take place, and its start time was not found. The RTVE debate dispute is also unresolved.
The gap between the CIS and the private pollsters is the main contested point, and the reasons for it were not established. Dates here are publication dates, and fieldwork dates can differ.
The official campaign calendar, polling-station hours and party reactions to the 12–13 November polls were also not found. Some of these polls may overlap with those behind our earlier reports on Spain's polls.
It was not checked which ones.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Spain's general election?
Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, for the 350-seat Congress and the Senate. The new Congress is due to meet on 23 December.
Who is ahead in the polls?
Three of five polls published on 12–13 November put the conservative PP first. SW Demoscopia and the state-run CIS put the Socialist PSOE ahead.
What do prediction markets say?
On Polymarket at 12:22 p.m. ET on 13 November, Feijóo stood at 84.5% to become prime minister and Sánchez at 11.8%. These prices are bets, not polls.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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