Spain’s Election and Pedro Sánchez: What Is Going On?
Spain votes on 29 November, and this page explains in plain English who could win, why Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is under pressure and what traders expect.
Key Facts
- —The vote Spain votes on Sunday 29 November, months early, after parliament rejected the government’s housing decrees.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket: Feijóo 82.5% to become prime minister, Sánchez 14.4% (21 October, 7:04 a.m. ET).
- —The polls Private polls put the conservative People’s Party first; the state pollster puts the Socialists ahead.
- —The scandals His ex-minister got over 24 years in prison; no court has named Sánchez himself a suspect.
- —What it means for you The winner steers a NATO ally at odds with Washington and Latin America’s second-largest foreign investor.
Spain holds a snap general election on Sunday 29 November 2026, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after Congress rejected his housing decrees on 2 October. Private polls put Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s conservative People’s Party first, the state-run CIS puts Sánchez’s Socialists ahead, and prediction markets make Feijóo the favourite to become Spain’s next prime minister.
This dossier gathers our explainers, the live odds and every Rio Times report on the vote in one place. Start with our guides to the Pedro Sánchez scandal and whether he will resign and to Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the favourite to replace him, see how Spain compares with the rest of Europe and follow the latest developments below.
Prediction markets · Spain’s 29 November election
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who becomes Spain's next prime minister
Polymarket: US$2.0 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), prime minister after the next election: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 81% · Pedro Sánchez 17% · Santiago Abascal 7% (19,794 contracts traded).
Which party wins the most seats on 29 November
Polymarket: US$121,000 traded.
Pedro Sánchez out as prime minister by...
Polymarket: US$883,000 traded. The January contracts do not count time as acting prime minister, and a successor can take office only after the new Congress meets on 23 December.
As of 21 October, 7:04 a.m. ET (12:04 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
In Plain English
- Pedro Sánchez: Spain’s centre-left prime minister since 2018, leader of the Socialists (PSOE).
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo: leader of the conservative People’s Party (PP), the main opposition.
- Vox: a national-conservative party led by Santiago Abascal, tough on migration.
- CIS: the state-run polling institute, whose figures differ from private polls.
- 176 seats: the majority a prime minister needs in the 350-seat Congress on a first vote.
- Spain Regularisation Drew 1.17 Million Applications
Spain's migrant regularisation closed on 30 June 2026 with 1,174,978 applications, far above the government's estimate. Here is who qualified.
- Senegalese Migration to Spain: Why Boats Are Back
Canary Islands arrivals are down 33.5% this year but jumped from September. We explain the route shift, Senegal's jobs data and what is still unknown.
- Spain's Snap Election 2026 and the Latin America Stakes
Spain votes on 29 November 2026 after Pedro Sánchez lost a housing vote. The result could reshape Spanish investment, visas and trade with Latin America.
- Spain's Courts Put Venezuela's Delcy Rodríguez in an Awkward Spotlight
Venezuela's acting president has been courting Madrid and Washington.
- Spain’s Sánchez and Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez Agree to Keep Talking
Pedro Sánchez and Delcy Rodríguez agreed to keep talking about Venezuela after a brief UN encounter. What was said and why it matters.
- Ceuta Unaccompanied Minors Number 2,100 in a System Built for 29
A Spanish minister says about 2,100 unaccompanied children remain in Ceuta. The enclave's official capacity for them is twenty-nine places.
Our dossier on Spain's election follows Pedro Sánchez, the court cases around him and the rivals who want his job. The explainers come first, then the story by theme and our newest reports.
Start Here
The Story by Theme
Courts and Scandals
The mask-contracts verdict, the cases around Begoña Gómez and David Sánchez, Zapatero and the Socialist party's finances.
The Election, the Parties and the Odds
The 29 November vote, the polls, Feijóo, Vox, the Catalan and Basque kingmakers and the prediction markets.
Housing, Migration and the Economy
Rents and evictions, Ceuta and the migrant regularisation, growth, jobs and prices.
Spain, the United States and Latin America
Trade threats from Washington, the bases, NATO and Spain's weight as an investor in Latin America.
Latest on Spain
- Why Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez Could Lose His Job21 Oct
- Spain Regularisation Drew 1.17 Million Applications17 Oct
- Morocco King Rejects Spain Pressure in Friday Speech10 Oct
- Spain’s Courts Put Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez in an Awkward Spotlight28 Sep
- Spain’s Sánchez and Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez Agree to Keep Talking22 Sep
- Ceuta Unaccompanied Minors Number 2,100 in a System Built for 2915 Sep
- Spain’s Alejandro Betancourt Case Stalls as Washington Stays Silent14 Sep
- Morocco Tells Spain It Will Not Be the Scapegoat for the Ceuta Border Crossings13 Sep
- Spain Votes to Grant Nationality to Tens of Thousands of Western Saharans11 Sep
- Leaked Report Says Moroccan Police Guided Ceuta Crossing3 Sep
- Ceuta Photos Were Used to Invent a Moroccan Migration Wave in Brazil1 Sep
- Ceuta Protesters Confront Police as Migrant Standoff Deepens29 Aug
- Morocco Security Alert After Calls For New Mass Crossing To Ceuta9 Aug
- Ceuta Migrant Crisis Kills at Least 72 as Europe Turns on Spain6 Aug
- 60,000 Migrants Storm Spain’s Ceuta Enclave in a Day31 Jul
- Spain’s Repsol Bets on New Venezuelan Oil Ground as Majors Return17 Jun
- Spain Closes Express Residency Path for Venezuelans After 240,000 Permits1 Apr
- Spain’s Quiet Empire: How IBEX 35 Companies Conquered Latin America31 Mar
- Spain’s Rental Market Collapses: Supply Down 61%, Prices Up 40% in Five Years30 Mar
- Trump Threatens to Cut All Trade With Spain Over Iran Bases4 Mar
Key Dates Before and After the Vote
- Monday 26 October: deadline for parties to register their candidate lists.
- Wednesday 11 November: general strike over housing and wages called by the CCOO and UGT unions.
- 13 to 27 November: official election campaign.
- Sunday 29 November: election day; polling stations open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time (3 a.m. to 2 p.m. ET in mainland Spain).
- Wednesday 23 December: the new Congress and Senate meet at 10 a.m. Madrid time (4 a.m. ET), before the investiture vote.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Spain election in 2026?
Spain votes on Sunday 29 November 2026. The official campaign runs from 13 to 27 November and the new parliament meets on 23 December.
Who will win the Spain election?
Private polls put the People’s Party first and give it and Vox about 200 of 350 seats together, while the state-run CIS puts the Socialists ahead. On 21 October Polymarket gave the People’s Party an 82.5% chance of winning the most seats.
Who will be Spain’s next prime minister?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the People’s Party is the favourite in the polls and prediction markets. On 21 October Polymarket gave him an 82.5% chance and Pedro Sánchez 14.4%.
Will Pedro Sánchez resign?
He has given no sign of it and leads the Socialist list in Madrid. If he loses, he stays on as acting prime minister until Congress elects a successor after 23 December.
Are Polymarket and Kalshi legal in Spain?
Spain’s gambling regulator ordered both blocked in May 2026, pending a final ruling, because they operate without a Spanish licence. We show their prices as information next to the polls, never as a tip.
Sources: BOE, Royal Decree 806/2026 (6 October 2026); Spanish Constitution, articles 99 and 101; Electoral law (LOREG); Supreme Court, mask-contracts judgment (22 June 2026); Electográfica, CIS October barometer (14 October 2026); Electográfica, 40dB poll (9 October 2026); El Independiente, poll average (9 October 2026); elDiario.es, housing decrees vote (2 October 2026); Euronews, general strike (7 October 2026); Moncloa.com, candidate lists deadline (21 October 2026); COPE, PSOE Madrid list (14 October 2026); Brussels Signal, bases and trade threat (13 May 2026); Bank of Spain, foreign direct investment between Latin America and Spain (Economic Bulletin 2025/Q1, 2023 data); Directorate-General for Gambling Regulation, Polymarket and Kalshi blocked (26 May 2026); Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 21 October 2026). All accessed 21 October 2026.