Latin America Power Map
Updated every morning
Latin America Power Map
Who holds power in Latin America — and which way it is moving. Monday, June 29, 2026.
Power shifts · since yesterday▲ Chile +1▼ Argentina −2▼ Venezuela −1
Friday’s close: Latin America capped the week resilient. As Asia’s tech trade kept cracking — the Nasdaq fell a fifth straight day — and oil dropped about 4%, global money rotated into cheap value: Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 0.76% to a fresh record 173,295 as rate-cut bets broadened and the real firmed to 5.17; Mexico’s IPC eased 0.28% to 67,226 but held its Banxico jump; Argentina’s Merval recovered 0.88% to about 3.12 million as the reform trade steadied; Colombia’s COLCAP rebounded 1.09% to 2,286; and Chile’s IPSA rose 0.53% to 10,763 on firm copper. The S&P 500 finished flat at 7,354 and WTI fell 3.9% to $69. Over the weekend, Argentina’s cabinet chief Adorni resigned over undeclared savings and Venezuela’s quake toll soared past 1,400 with a $6.7bn damage bill.
The Power Board
14 nations · ranked by power · today’s move · the nine powers
1
Brazil
Lula da Silva
82↔ ±0
the Ibovespa caps the week at a record 173,295, up 0.76%, as rate-cut bets broaden and oil falls about 4%
2
Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum
80↔ ±0
exports surge 22.6% to $317bn even as autos slip; the IPC holds its Banxico jump before the July 1 USMCA review
3
Argentina
Javier Milei
65▼ -2
cabinet chief Adorni resigns over undeclared savings even as the ‘Súper RIGI’ heads to the Senate
4
Chile
José A. Kast
60▲ +1
hosts six air forces at the Salitre 2026 war games as Brazil’s Gripen flies abroad for the first time
5
Colombia
Gustavo Petro
55↔ ±0
president-elect de la Espriella names his first minister as a frosty handover from Petro begins
6
Panama
José Raúl Mulino
52↔ ±0
Mulino hosts the OAS assembly and sends rescuers to Venezuela; a Cobre Panamá audit clears 87.7% but the mine stays shut
7
Costa Rica
Laura Fernández
48↔ ±0
the Crucitas illegal-mining crisis and the Gamboa narco scandal test its institutions
8
Uruguay
Yamandú Orsi
46↔ ±0
a quiet magnet for capital as the budget review dominates the agenda
9
Venezuela
Delcy Rodríguez
43▼ -1
a $6.7bn quake bill and a toll past 1,400 land as US warships return with aid and Trump eases some sanctions
10
Paraguay
Santiago Peña
43↔ ±0
low debt, fast growth and a pro-Washington tilt; Asunción hosts the Mercosur summit on June 30
11
Peru
Balcázar (caretaker)
42↔ ±0
Fujimori’s narrow win stands as OAS and EU monitors back a clean vote; a caretaker rules to July 28
12
Ecuador
Daniel Noboa
37↔ ±0
a World Cup win over Germany brings a surprise national holiday even as a 60-day security emergency grips the country
13
Bolivia
Rodrigo Paz
29↔ ±0
ends its decade-old dollar peg, devaluing the boliviano about 30% to back an IMF deal
14
Cuba
Miguel Díaz-Canel
24↔ ±0
a record blackout leaves two-thirds of the island dark as the US presses Havana at the OAS
The nine bars: Market · Companies · Defense · Presidency · Institutions · Cohesion · Soft power · Narrative · Pride (taller = stronger). Power Index 0–100, Rio Times Power Desk read.
Who’s gaining, who’s losing
Power moves · this week
▲ Gaining power
+1Brazilthe Ibovespa caps the week at a fresh record as rate-cut bets broaden and oil falls
+1Colombiaa confirmed result and a conceding rival clear the path to a calmer handover
▼ Losing power
−2Venezuelaa historic quake leaves some 1,430 dead and a $6.7bn bill as the state stays in default
−2Argentinathe cabinet chief resigns over undeclared savings, emptying the key congressional negotiator seat
The friends-and-rivals map
Two camps · and the nations in between
Milei’s world
Washington · Silicon Valley
- ArgentinaMilei
- ChileKast
- ParaguayPeña
- EcuadorNoboa
- Costa RicaFernández
- PanamaMulino
- ColombiaEspriella
- PeruFujimori
- BoliviaPaz
Patrons: Trump · Musk · Bukele · Bolsonaro · Israel
In play
Non-aligned · pragmatic
- MexicoSheinbaum
- UruguayOrsi
Lula’s world
Beijing · BRICS
- BrazilLula
- VenezuelaRodríguez
- CubaDíaz-Canel
Patrons: Xi / China · Russia · BRICS
The data behind the rankings
Thirty international benchmarks · six lenses · each one sourced
Markets & money
| Country | Equity | FX /USD | Policy % | Inflation % | Risk bp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 173,295 | 5.17 | 14.25 | 4.7 | 197 |
| Mexico | 67,226 | 17.60 | 6.50 | 3.6 | 233 |
| Argentina | 3.12M | 1,479 | 29.00 | 32.6 | 616 |
| Chile | 10,763 | 919 | 4.50 | 4.0 | 102 |
| Colombia | 2,286 | 3,434 | 11.25 | 5.7 | 282 |
| Panama | — | 1.00 | — | 0.9 | 159 |
| Costa Rica | — | 455.6 | 3.25 | −1.6 | 165 |
| Uruguay | — | 40.5 | 5.75 | 3.2 | 78 |
| Venezuela | — | 566 | 58.91 | 612† | 6,371 |
| Paraguay | — | 6,138 | 5.50 | 2.3 | 129 |
| Peru | 58,096 | 3.35 | 4.25 | 4.0 | 139 |
| Ecuador | — | 1.00 | 7.02 | 2.3 | 506 |
| Bolivia | — | 9.73 | 6.24 | 14.2 | 561 |
| Cuba | — | n/a | 2.25 | 14.7 | n/a |
Economy
| Country | GDP $bn | Per cap $ | Growth % | Unemp % | Reserves $bn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 2,130 | 10,686 | +1.9 | 6.0 | 367.6 |
| Mexico | 1,864 | 13,741 | +0.6 | 2.6 | 256.3 |
| Argentina | 684 | 14,355 | +3.5 | 7.4 | 32.7 |
| Chile | 344 | 17,735 | +2.4 | 8.5 | 51.5 |
| Colombia | 438 | 8,623 | +2.3 | 8.0 | 66.6 |
| Panama | 92 | 19,814 | — | 10.4 | n/a |
| Costa Rica | 103 | 19,162 | — | 6.3 | 20.9 |
| Uruguay | 80 | 24,549 | — | 7.5 | 18.6 |
| Venezuela | 109† | 3,736† | +4.0† | 35.6 | 13.3 |
| Paraguay | 46 | 7,692 | +4.2 | 5.2 | 9.4 |
| Peru | 323 | 9,911 | +2.8 | 5.9 | 101.0 |
| Ecuador | 126 | 7,199 | +2.5 | 3.1 | 10.5 |
| Bolivia | 56 | 5,107 | −3.3 | 3.3 | 0.15 |
| Cuba | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Public finances & openness
| Country | Debt % | Fiscal % | Curr acct % | S&P | Econ free |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 76.5 | −8.1 | −3.0 | BB | 55.1 |
| Mexico | 49.7 | −4.9 | −0.4 | BBB | 61.3 |
| Argentina | 83.2 | −0.4 | −1.1 | CCC+ | 54.2 |
| Chile | 41.7 | −2.8 | −2.3 | A | 73.2 |
| Colombia | 61.3 | −5.7 | −2.4 | BB− | 59.8 |
| Panama | 56.6 | −3.7 | +0.3 | BBB− | 65.5 |
| Costa Rica | 74.2 | −3.4 | −0.7 | BB | 68.6 |
| Uruguay | 70.3 | −3.4 | −0.5 | BBB+ | 70.2 |
| Venezuela | 164† | −5.8 | +2.6 | n/r | 27.6 |
| Paraguay | 45.2 | −1.7 | −3.5 | BBB− | 65.2 |
| Peru | 30.2 | −2.4 | +3.1 | BBB− | 65.9 |
| Ecuador | 50.6 | −2.9 | +5.8 | B− | 55.8 |
| Bolivia | 95.0 | −11.6 | −1.9 | CCC− | 44.1 |
| Cuba | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/r | 25.4 |
Institutions
| Country | Rule of law | Ctrl corr. | CPI 2024 | V-Dem | Press free. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | −0.45 | −0.41 | 34 | 0.70 | 63.8 |
| Mexico | −1.15 | −0.94 | 26 | 0.22 | 45.6 |
| Argentina | −0.25 | −0.33 | 37 | 0.52 | 56.1 |
| Chile | 0.69 | 1.11 | 63 | 0.78 | 62.3 |
| Colombia | −0.56 | −0.29 | 39 | 0.56 | 49.8 |
| Panama | −0.26 | −0.55 | 33 | 0.58 | 66.8 |
| Costa Rica | 0.62 | 0.68 | 58 | 0.81 | 73.1 |
| Uruguay | 0.95 | 1.53 | 76 | 0.79 | 65.2 |
| Venezuela | −2.20 | −1.59 | 10 | 0.04 | 29.2 |
| Paraguay | −0.58 | −1.02 | 24 | 0.38 | 56.8 |
| Peru | −0.51 | −0.72 | 31 | 0.51 | 42.9 |
| Ecuador | −0.97 | −0.78 | 32 | 0.39 | 53.8 |
| Bolivia | −1.27 | −1.00 | 28 | 0.35 | 54.1 |
| Cuba | −0.62 | −0.23 | 41 | 0.06 | 26.0 |
Society
| Country | Gini | Poverty % | HDI | Pop (m) | Fragile St. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 51.6 | 23.1 | 0.786 | 213.6 | 70.3 |
| Mexico | 43.5 | 29.6 | 0.789 | 133.0 | 69.0 |
| Argentina | 42.4 | 38.1 | 0.865 | 46.0 | 44.2 |
| Chile | 43.0 | 6.5 | 0.878 | 19.9 | 41.1 |
| Colombia | 53.9 | 31.8 | 0.788 | 53.9 | 75.6 |
| Panama | 49.7 | 21.7 | 0.839 | 4.6 | 47.7 |
| Costa Rica | 45.8 | 20.3 | 0.833 | 5.2 | 39.4 |
| Uruguay | 40.9 | 17.3 | 0.862 | 3.4 | 33.7 |
| Venezuela | 44.7† | n/a | 0.709 | 28.6 | 89.0 |
| Paraguay | 44.4 | 20.1 | 0.756 | 7.1 | 61.5 |
| Peru | 40.1 | 27.6 | 0.794 | 34.9 | 72.0 |
| Ecuador | 45.2 | 28.0 | 0.777 | 18.4 | 68.0 |
| Bolivia | 42.1 | 37.7 | 0.733 | 12.7 | 69.4 |
| Cuba | 38.0† | n/a | 0.762 | 10.9 | 59.1 |
Security & defense
| Country | Homicide | Org-crime | Mil % | Firepower | Active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 19.3 | 6.77 | 0.97 | 11 | 376k |
| Mexico | 24.9 | 7.57 | 0.62 | 36 | 387k |
| Argentina | 4.5 | 5.00 | 0.37 | 32 | 108k |
| Chile | 6.3 | 5.18 | 1.58 | 49 | 80k |
| Colombia | 24.9 | 7.75 | 3.36 | 43 | 429k |
| Panama | 11.7 | 6.98 | — | 135 | 16k |
| Costa Rica | 17.7 | 5.53 | — | n/a | n/a |
| Uruguay | 11.2 | 3.22 | 2.31 | 97 | 24k |
| Venezuela | 12.6† | 6.72 | — | 51 | 109k |
| Paraguay | 6.8 | 7.52 | 0.93 | 81 | 16k |
| Peru | 8.6 | 6.40 | 0.91 | 50 | 120k |
| Ecuador | 45.7 | 7.07 | 2.22 | 72 | 41k |
| Bolivia | 4.4 | 4.95 | 1.37 | 82 | 40k |
| Cuba | 4.5† | 3.37 | — | 65 | 50k |
Sources — Markets: Rio Times market feed, central banks, JPMorgan EMBI (latest close Jun 26, 2026). Economy & finances: IMF WEO 2025/26, ECLAC, Trading Economics, S&P Global (Dec 2025), Heritage Foundation 2025. Institutions: World Bank WGI 2024, Transparency International 2024, V-Dem 2025, RSF 2025. Society: World Bank, UNDP 2025, UN WPP 2024, Fund for Peace 2024. Security: UNODC 2023, GI-TOC 2023, SIPRI 2024, Global Firepower 2026. † estimate; — not applicable; n/a not published.
How we read power. The Power Index blends nine facets — market, companies, defense, the presidency, institutions, cohesion, soft power, narrative and pride — scored 1–5 by the Rio Times Power Desk and reviewed daily, anchored by hard data (markets, Global Firepower, S&P ratings) and the structural indices (World Bank Governance, V-Dem, the Fragile States Index, SIPRI). Alliances are mapped from documented ties only. Editorial analysis, not investment advice.