Brazil Runoff Polls 2026: Every Lula vs Flávio Survey
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026 · POLL TRACKER
Updated 2 times · Latest: 14 October 2026
Key Facts
- —The vote Brazil chooses its president in a runoff on Sunday, 25 October, between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, conservative) and President Lula (PT, left).
- —Poll average Flávio 52.2%, Lula 47.8% of valid votes, the latest poll of each of nine pollsters, unweighted.
- —Who leads Flávio in nine of ten runoff polls since 5 October; Vox Brasil is the only one with Lula ahead.
- —The trend PoderData, the only pollster with two runoff waves, saw Flávio’s lead shrink from 6 points to 2 between 8 and 13 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 15% and 15%), as of 14 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula in nine of the ten national runoff polls published since Brazil’s first round on 4 October. Our average of each pollster’s latest survey gives him 52.2% of valid votes to Lula’s 47.8%, a lead of just over four points with eleven days to go.
Flávio, 45, is a Rio de Janeiro senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth term, and this page adds every new runoff poll as it is registered.
Every Runoff Poll Since 5 October
Polls are listed newest first, with each candidate’s share of valid votes, the measure the electoral court (TSE) uses to declare the winner. Valid votes leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, and every poll carries its TSE registration number.
We covered the Datafolha poll, the AtlasIntel poll and the Futura poll in detail. The Ipespe report also asked which candidate comes across better in TV interviews.
The Average and the Trend
Our average is a simple mean of each pollster’s latest poll in valid votes, with no weighting, and it covers nine pollsters. Vox Brasil published only figures for all answers, so we removed its blank, spoiled and undecided answers to compare it with the others.
Flávio leads in nine of the ten polls, by margins between 2 and 10 points, with Gerp showing him highest on 55%. The five polls released from 8 to 10 October averaged 51.9% for him and the five released on 11 and 13 October 52.6%, a shift well inside the margins of error.
PoderData, the only pollster with two runoff waves so far, saw the gap narrow from 6 points to 2, as Lula rose from 47% to 49%. Nexus shows the swing since before the first round, from a 46% to 44% Lula lead on 28 September to a 48% to 45% Flávio lead on 13 October among all answers.
Before the first round, runoff simulations showed a near tie, as our 14 September, 22 September and 28 September reports found. The first round then moved the race toward Flávio, who finished ahead on 4 October.
How the Pollsters Did in the First Round
The TSE’s final count gave Flávio 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, a lead of 1.87 points, with 56,104,503 votes to 53,879,538. Our Brazil election results page has the full count by state.
The four best-known final polls, Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData and CNT/MDA, all put Lula in front and landed within 2.7 points of his result. They placed Flávio two to five points too low, with Datafolha’s 42% the furthest off and Quaest’s 45% the closest.
Gerp’s final poll was the exception, with Flávio ahead 46% to 44%, within 1.2 points of each result. The same pollster now gives Flávio his widest runoff lead, 55% of valid votes.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets let traders buy contracts that pay US$1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 86 cents reads as an 86% chance. Both leading platforms make Flávio a clear favourite, a firmer verdict than the four-point lead in the polls.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.1% · Lula 14.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 15%
As of 14 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian shares, bonds or the real, plan for both outcomes rather than for the leader in the latest poll. The first round showed that polls can miss one candidate by five points while getting the other right.
Read the valid-vote figure first, because a 52% to 48% poll is a four-point race, not a landslide. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027, and our runoff guide explains the rules, the dates and the candidates.
What Is Not Known
The next polls are registered with the TSE: Quaest on Wednesday, 14 October (2,154 interviews, BR-08729/2026), Datafolha on Thursday, 15 October, and PoderData and MDA on Friday, 16 October. We add each one here on the day it is published.
No poll can tell which of the 33.5 million voters who stayed home on 4 October will turn out on 25 October. Abstention reached 21.08% in the first round, and a small shift in turnout could outweigh a two-point lead.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the Brazil runoff polls?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads in nine of the ten national Brazil runoff polls tracked here since 5 October. Our simple average of each pollster’s latest survey gives him 52.2% of valid votes to Lula’s 47.8%.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026, between the two leaders of the 4 October first round. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027, under a 2021 constitutional amendment.
How accurate were the polls in the first round?
Four major final polls all had Lula ahead, while the official count gave Flávio 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%. They were close on Lula but placed Flávio two to five points too low.
Why do Brazilian polls report valid votes?
Brazil’s electoral court declares the winner on valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters also drop undecided answers so their figures match the way the official result is counted.
What do prediction markets say about the Brazil runoff?
On 14 October, Polymarket bettors gave Flávio an 86.1% chance of winning, and Kalshi traders gave him 88%. These are real-money bets, not polls, and their prices can move within minutes.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official first-round result, president, 5 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), open-data registry of 2026 election polls, 13 October 2026; Poder360 / PoderData, runoff poll 10 to 12 October, 13 October 2026; Gerp, national runoff poll report BR-07877/2026, 13 October 2026; BTG Pactual / Nexus, round 17 report, 13 October 2026; Exame, Futura runoff poll, 13 October 2026; Poder360, DataTrends runoff poll, 11 October 2026; Ipespe/Abrapel, campaign tracking round 1 report, 10 October 2026; AtlasIntel, national poll 3 to 8 October, 9 October 2026; Poder360, Vox Brasil runoff poll, 9 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, Datafolha runoff poll, 8 October 2026; Poder360 / PoderData, runoff poll 5 to 7 October, 8 October 2026; Datafolha, final first-round poll, 3 October 2026; Bem Paraná, final first-round polls, 3 October 2026; Presidency of Brazil, Constitutional Amendment 111/2021 (5 January inauguration), 28 September 2021; NC News, first-round polls against the count, 9 October 2026; Exame, Gerp runoff poll and its first-round record, 13 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, the pollster closest to the first-round result, 5 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, Nexus/BTG runoff poll, 13 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief