France in Turmoil, From Street Protests to the 2027 Election
France is living through student protests, riots and night curfews, a government fighting for its budget and a 2027 race that Marine Le Pen leads; this page gathers it all.
Key Facts
- —The unrest Student protests and a cost-of-living revolt led to riots on 17 October and 2,397 arrests.
- —Curfews Night curfews in parts of Paris, Lyon and other cities; no state of emergency so far.
- —The government Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government faces a budget vote on 3 November.
- —Next dates Protests on 22, 24 and 31 October; nationwide and rail strike on 5 November.
- —Prediction markets Marine Le Pen 47% on Polymarket, 54% on Kalshi to win in 2027 (21 October, 8:34 a.m. ET)
High-school protests over crowded classrooms merged on 17 October with a Yellow Vest revolt against the cost of living, and the riots that followed pushed the government into curfews. The crisis hits a minority government six months before the presidential election of 18 April and 2 May 2027, in which President Emmanuel Macron cannot run.
Start with our analysis of why France is in crisis and how Macron lost his grip and our explainer on why France is protesting, then our guides to whether it is safe to travel to France, whether the government could collapse and who will win the 2027 election. The live odds and the latest developments below update themselves.
Prediction markets · France 2027 and the unrest
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who wins France's presidential election in 2027
Polymarket: US$154.5 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), next president: Marine Le Pen 54% · Édouard Philippe 15% · David Lisnard 11% (920,929 contracts traded).
Who reaches the runoff on 2 May 2027
Polymarket: US$403,000 traded. Two candidates go through, so these chances add up to about 200%.
France declares a state of emergency by...
Polymarket: US$207,000 traded. A state of emergency gives the government extra powers such as banning gatherings; it has not been declared.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), state of emergency: before 1 November 2026 11% · before 1 January 2027 24% (27,695 contracts traded).
France passes a national budget by 31 December 2026
Polymarket: US$19,000 traded. The 2027 budget needs a majority the government does not have.
As of 21 October, 8:34 a.m. ET (13:34 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
In Plain English
- Yellow Vests (gilets jaunes) A protest movement born in 2018 over fuel taxes and living costs.
- CGT, CFDT, FO, UNSA, FSU France’s main union confederations, which call the 5 November strike.
- RN (National Rally) Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party, the largest group in the National Assembly.
- LFI (France Unbowed) Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical-left party.
- Prefect The central government’s representative in each département, who can order curfews.
- Will France's Government Collapse Over the 2027 Budget?
France’s government has survived the riots so far, but its 2027 budget faces a hostile parliament and a decisive vote on 3 November. What could bring it down.
- Who Will Win France's 2027 Election? Polls and Odds
Six months before France chooses Emmanuel Macron's successor, Marine Le Pen leads both the polls and the betting markets. The latest polls and odds.
- Is It Safe to Travel to France Right Now? Curfews, Strikes
You can still travel to France, but avoid protest days and the small night-curfew zones in Paris, Lyon and other city centres. Every date and advisory.
- How France Lost the Ability to Pass a Budget
France has not lost a war, a currency or a bank. It has lost something quieter: a parliamentary majority willing to own a budget — and the markets are beginning to price the absence.
Our dossier on France follows the protests and riots, the government's fight to survive and the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron in 2027. The explainers come first, then the story by theme and our newest reports.
Start Here
Start Here
- Why France Is in Crisis, and How Macron Lost His Grip
- Why Is France Protesting? Riots, Curfews and the 2027 Race
- Is It Safe to Travel to France Right Now? Curfews, Strikes
- Who Will Win France’s 2027 Election? Polls and Odds
- Will France’s Government Collapse Over the 2027 Budget?
- How France Lost the Ability to Pass a Budget
The Story by Theme
Key Dates
- Thursday, 22 October Student marches; Prime Minister Lecornu meets the political parties.
- Saturday, 24 October “Act II” of the Yellow Vest cost-of-living protest.
- Sunday, 25 October Pittsburgh Steelers v New Orleans Saints at the Stade de France, the NFL’s first regular-season game in France.
- Tuesday, 3 November Scheduled National Assembly vote on the revenue half of the 2027 budget.
- Thursday, 5 November Nationwide strike and marches; rail strike call at SNCF.
- 18 April and 2 May 2027 The two rounds of the presidential election.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the next protests and strikes in France?
Students march on Thursday, 22 October, and the Yellow Vests call protests for 24 and 31 October. The main unions and the four SNCF rail unions have called strikes for Thursday, 5 November.
What do prediction markets say about France?
Traders make Marine Le Pen the favourite to win the 2027 presidential election, and they rate a state of emergency as unlikely for now. The card on this page shows the live Polymarket and Kalshi prices, which are bets, not polls.
How often is this page updated?
The odds refresh every 20 minutes and the latest developments as soon as we publish a checked story. Our explainers are rewritten whenever a major vote, ruling or protest changes the picture.
Sources: French Interior Ministry figures via franceinfo and ICI (18 October); National Assembly budget calendar; France 24 on the protest calendar (19 October); Toute l’Europe on the election calendar; NFL and ESPN on the Steelers-Saints game; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data. As of 21 October 2026.