Why France Is in Crisis, and How Macron Lost His Grip

FRANCE IN TURMOIL · ANALYSIS

France’s riots are the latest symptom of a decade in which voters kept moving away from the centre that still holds power.

Emmanuel Macron has won two presidential elections by uniting left and right against Marine Le Pen, yet his camp has lost its majority, three prime ministers have been toppled or have quit since December 2024 and the public debt keeps rising. On 17 October 2026 that strain spilled into the streets, with 2,397 arrests that day, followed by night curfews in parts of Paris and other cities.

This explainer traces how France got here, what critics of the establishment argue and what its defenders answer. It matters to Americans because France is a nuclear power, a NATO ally, the euro zone’s second-largest economy and, by the polls, six months from a possible nationalist presidency.

The Short Answer

In our analysis, France is in crisis because the system that has kept Marine Le Pen’s nationalists out of power has outlived the majority that built it. Voters have twice elected Macron against her, but they have not given his centre a stable majority since 2022, and the 2024 snap election left a parliament split three ways.

Add an interest bill that has nearly doubled since 2021, a court case against the front-runner and a cost-of-living revolt, and the result is a state that struggles to pass a budget while its streets burn. Critics call it an establishment that will not let go; its defenders call it a democracy protecting itself.

How Macron Twice Beat Le Pen

Macron, a former investment banker and economy minister, won the presidency in 2017 at 39 without ever having held elected office. In the runoff he beat Le Pen by 66.1% to 33.9%, carried by a republican front of left and right voters who backed him to block her.

The rematch in 2022 was closer: Macron won by 58.55% to 41.45%, and Le Pen gained more than 2.6 million votes on 2017. The front still held, but each election showed more voters willing to cross the line it drew.

Within weeks of the 2022 victory, Macron’s camp lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly, the lower house that makes and unmakes governments. From then on every budget and every big reform needed either opposition votes or Article 49.3.

The Old Parties Collapsed

Macron’s rise came at the expense of the two parties that had run France for decades, the conservatives and the Socialists. Their 2022 candidates finished far behind, leaving three blocs of roughly similar weight and no natural majority among them.

In our analysis, that three-way split is the root of today’s paralysis. The 2024 parliament reproduced it, and the 2027 race now continues it, with Le Pen and Mélenchon each hoping to face a weakened centre in the runoff.

The Pension Reform Passed Without a Vote

The clearest example came in March 2023, when the government used Article 49.3 to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 without a final vote in the Assembly. It survived the no-confidence motion that followed by just nine votes, after months of strikes and marches against the reform.

For many voters the episode became a symbol of power exercised over their heads. The reform was suspended in late 2025 as the price of Socialist support for Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, which made the original showdown look even more costly in hindsight.

The 2024 Gamble That Broke Parliament

On 9 June 2024, after the RN’s list beat his own in the European Parliament election, Macron dissolved the Assembly and called a snap vote. In the first round on 30 June the RN and its allies took 33.2%, ahead of the New Popular Front at about 28% and Ensemble, the alliance of Macron’s Renaissance and its centrist partners, at 21.3%.

Before the runoff, 216 left-wing and centrist candidates who had qualified withdrew to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote. On 7 July the RN and its allies won the most runoff votes, 37.1%, yet finished third in seats with 142, behind the left alliance with 180 and Macron’s camp with 159, according to the Interior Ministry’s count.

The left argued that as the largest bloc it should govern, but in late August 2024 Macron refused to appoint its candidate for prime minister, Lucie Castets, arguing that a government built on the left’s programme alone would be voted down at once. He turned instead to the conservative Michel Barnier, and that choice opened two years of revolving doors.

Barnier’s fall was the first successful no-confidence vote in France since 1962. Lecornu now runs a minority government that pushed the 2026 budget through with Article 49.3 and faces a vote on the 2027 budget’s revenue half on 3 November; we track the arithmetic in will France’s government collapse.

Le Pen in the Dock

On 31 March 2025 a Paris criminal court convicted Le Pen of embezzling European Parliament money by paying assistants who in fact worked for her party. It sentenced her to four years in prison, two of them to be served with an electronic tag and two suspended, a fine of €100,000 (about US$112,000) and five years’ ineligibility with immediate effect, which would have kept her out of the 2027 race.

Le Pen called it a “political decision”, and party president Jordan Bardella said French democracy itself had been “executed”. Abroad, US President Donald Trump wrote “Free Marine Le Pen”, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán posted “Je suis Marine”, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said more and more European capitals were violating democratic norms.

“Free Marine Le Pen!”US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social network, April 2025

The court said it was applying the law, and the presiding judge was put under police protection after threats, while the judiciary’s oversight council voiced concern at the attacks on magistrates. Macron stressed on 2 April 2025 that the judiciary is independent and that every defendant can appeal, although his then prime minister, François Bayrou, said he was troubled by the ban’s immediate effect.

Defenders of the ruling point out that the ban follows a 2016 anti-corruption law that makes ineligibility the standard penalty for such offences. The appeal court upheld her conviction on 7 July 2026 but cut the ban to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, without making it immediately enforceable, and gave her three years in prison, one to be served with an electronic tag; she says she will run, and her final appeal to the Court of Cassation, France’s top court for criminal cases, is pending.

The Money Problem

France ran the largest budget deficit of the four big euro-zone economies in 2025, at 5.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office, published on 21 October 2026. Its interest bill nearly doubled in four years to €65.7 billion (about US$74 billion), about 2.2% of GDP, as rates rose and the debt grew.

The ratings agencies have taken note: Fitch cut France to A+ in September 2025 and S&P Global followed in October 2025, while Moody’s keeps it at Aa3 with a negative outlook. The European Union put France under its excessive deficit procedure in July 2024, which weakens Paris in EU debates on budget rules.

On 20 October 2026, three days after the riots, France paid about 1.53 percentage points more than Germany to borrow for ten years, according to figures from the Dutch bank ING reported by the business channel BFM Bourse. Economy Minister Roland Lescure told parliament on 13 October that the 2026 deficit will reach 5.4%, above the 5% target, and that he aims for 5% in 2027.

A Shrinking Voice Abroad

France’s military footprint in Africa, once the backbone of its global role, has largely gone. Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger expelled French troops between 2022 and 2023, and Chad and Senegal ended the French presence on their soil in 2025.

In Europe, Macron’s calls for “strategic autonomy” sit awkwardly with a deficit that breaks EU rules and a government that struggles to pass a budget. With Le Pen leading the 2027 polls, France’s partners also face the prospect of a nationalist president in Paris.

Voters Who Feel Unheard

The warning signs are old. The Yellow Vest revolt that began on 17 November 2018 over a fuel tax rise forced Macron to drop the tax and promise measures for low earners, and Yellow Vest groups are marching again in 2026.

Polls show how far trust has fallen. Only 17% of French voters said they were satisfied with Macron in the polling firm Ifop’s monthly survey for L’Opinion in mid-October, and Ifop’s separate barometer of 14 to 16 October found favourable opinions of him down eight points to 25%, before the riots began.

At the same time Le Pen leads the 2027 polls, with 34% to 38% of first-round intentions in Ifop’s survey of 17 to 19 October and wins in all its runoff tests. The anger now has two outlets, the ballot box that favours her and the street, where students and a revived Yellow Vest movement march against living costs.

October 2026, When the Gap Broke Into the Street

The riots of 17 October grew out of high-school protests over overcrowded classes and a cost-of-living day called online and relayed by a revived Yellow Vest coordination, whose website now says “Macron must go”. Looting in Paris and Lyon and the burning of Limoges city hall turned the day into a night of riots; the full story is in our explainer on why France is protesting.

Each camp reads the riots its own way. Le Pen told franceinfo on 21 October that France faces “a state that is collapsing”, while Macron blamed “factious” members of “ultra-left” groups joined by many delinquents, and Lecornu, according to La Libre Belgique, accused the ultra-left of an agenda of chaos until the election.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the radical left blamed the government’s policing strategy instead. What unites the readings is the sense that the people in charge no longer command the country they govern.

The Argument Over Democracy

Critics on the nationalist right, and allies abroad such as Orbán, make a blunt case: the old establishment will not leave, and the newcomers voters want are kept out by courts and procedure. They cite the RN’s runoff vote lead in 2024 that produced no government, the 2025 ban on Le Pen and the repeated use of Article 49.3.

Defenders of the institutions answer point by point. The 2024 seat count reflected voters’ own tactical choices in the runoffs, Le Pen’s conviction came from judges applying an existing law to documented spending, the appeal court has since restored her chance to run, and the Barnier and Bayrou governments fell to parliament’s own votes.

A European Pattern?

Critics place France in a wider European story. In Romania the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the 2024 presidential election, which the nationalist Călin Georgescu had won with 22.9%, after declassified intelligence reports pointed to a Russian-backed influence campaign, which he denies; he was later barred from the rerun, and US Vice President JD Vance attacked the annulment in a speech in Munich in February 2025.

In Germany the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second with 20.8% in the February 2025 election, and the domestic intelligence agency’s move to label it extremist, put on hold pending a court case, has fed a debate on banning the party. In Spain, a snap election follows on 29 November after Congress rejected the government’s housing plans, as our Spain election dossier shows.

Supporters of these decisions say courts and agencies were enforcing election and constitutional law, not choosing winners. Whether that holds is one of the central political arguments in Europe today, and France’s 2027 vote will test it.

What Prediction Markets Say

Traders on Polymarket, an online prediction-market exchange, make Le Pen the favourite to succeed Macron at about 46%, with more than US$154 million bet on the outcome. On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), her price rose from 44% at the close of 13 October to 53% to 54% on 21 October; the full poll and price picture is in our France 2027 election polls and odds page.

What Is Not Known

Nobody knows whether the Court of Cassation, France’s top court for criminal cases, will rule on Le Pen’s appeal before the April 2027 vote, or whether Lecornu’s government will survive the budget. It is also unclear whether the unrest will fade with the curfews or grow into a wider movement before the election.

What is clear is that the next president will inherit a divided parliament, a deficit above EU limits and a public that trusts few of its leaders. We update this analysis as the story moves; follow it in our France in Turmoil dossier.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is France in a political crisis?

Since the 2024 snap election no camp has a majority in the National Assembly, so governments keep falling and budgets stall. Add rising interest costs, a court case against the 2027 front-runner and street protests over living costs.

Why did Macron call the 2024 snap election?

He dissolved the National Assembly on 9 June 2024, after Le Pen’s party beat his list in the European Parliament election. The gamble backfired, leaving a parliament split between the left, his centrists and the RN.

Who won the 2024 French election?

The RN and its allies won the most runoff votes, 37.1%, but the left alliance won the most seats, 180 of 577. Macron’s camp came second in seats with 159 and the RN third with 142.

Why was Marine Le Pen convicted?

A Paris court found in March 2025 that her party used European Parliament funds to pay assistants who worked for the party. An appeal court upheld the conviction in July 2026 but cut her ban from office and did not make it immediately enforceable.

How big is France’s debt?

Public debt reached 115.7% of GDP in 2025 and the deficit 5.1%, according to Eurostat. France paid €65.7 billion (about US$74 billion) in interest that year, nearly twice the 2021 amount.

Sources: Conseil constitutionnel, official results of the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections; French Interior Ministry, 2024 legislative election results; Eurostat government deficit and debt and real GDP growth (both updated 21 October 2026); Paris criminal court ruling of 31 March 2025 and Paris appeal court ruling of 7 July 2026 as reported by Public Sénat; Élysée statement on the prime minister (26 August 2024); National Assembly record of 13 October 2026 (Roland Lescure); BFM Bourse (20 October 2026); franceinfo interview with Marine Le Pen (21 October 2026); LCP on Macron’s address (18 October 2026); La Libre Belgique on Lecornu (20 October 2026); Ifop surveys for L’Opinion, Paris Match and Sud Radio (October 2026); France 24 on the appeal ruling (7 July 2026); Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio (20 October 2026); Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (21 October 2026). As of 21 October 2026.

More: France in Turmoil: the dossier, with every story, the live odds and the latest developments.