Published Monday, 26 October, 3:30 a.m. ET · Source: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Ipsos polling firm, CeSID election monitor, Kalshi prediction market
Key Facts
- Count: RIK, Serbia’s electoral commission, has counted 7,926 stations: protest-born Student List 52.19%, ex-president Aleksandar Vučić’s list 39.52%.
- Gap: The students lead by about 514,000 votes; Ivica Dačić’s Socialists, at 2.21%, miss the 3% needed for seats.
- Not final: This is a partial count; RIK has not yet published its final result or the seat split.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, last traded cardiologist Ilija Srdanović at 35% for prime minister.
Serbia went to bed on Sunday expecting its ruling list to lose, and woke up to official numbers that say so. A protest movement born in Serbia’s universities is ahead of Aleksandar Vučić, the strongman who quit the presidency to run for prime minister, by more than half a million votes.
RIK, the Republic Electoral Commission, has now counted 7,926 polling stations. The Student List has 2,116,719 votes, or 52.19%.
Why it matters abroad: Serbia is an EU candidate that buys Russian gas and trades under a free-trade deal with China, so a change of government tests all three relationships. Our earlier coverage: election day, Vučić’s concession and what happens next.
How Wide Is the Gap?
Vučić’s list, “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia”, has 1,602,913 votes, or 39.52%. That puts the students ahead by about 514,000 votes.
Third comes “Ivica Dačić – Stability Factor”, the list of the Socialist Party, a long-time partner of the ruling camp. It has 89,441 votes, or 2.21%.
A list needs 3% to win seats, so on this count the Socialists stay out of parliament, as our earlier report anticipated. Every other list is below 1%.
Does the Official Count Match the Projections?
Closely. On Sunday night Ipsos, a polling firm, and CeSID, an election monitor, projected about 52% for the students and about 39% for Vučić’s list, with about 138 to 140 of 250 seats for the students.
A projection is an estimate from a sample of stations. The RIK numbers are real ballots, but still only part of the total.
Vučić said on Sunday night that his list had lost, citing a sample count. The count now under way is the first official test of that claim.
What Is Still Unknown?
RIK has not published its final result, and the remaining stations could still move the percentages. It has not published how the 250 seats in the National Assembly, Serbia’s parliament, will be split.
A majority needs 126 seats. Ipsos and CeSID projected about 138 to 140 for the Student List.
Who would become prime minister is also open, and the Kalshi market below shows how undecided traders are. That uncertainty is the real story of the next few days.
What it means for you: investors and diplomats should expect a government with no track record, and an untested line on Moscow, Beijing and Brussels. Until RIK finishes, every figure above is provisional.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator, last traded Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist at the top of the student ticket, at 35% to become prime minister. Trading is thin: the current buy offers sit well below that last price, and 37,006 contracts have changed hands across all candidates (read 3:09 a.m. ET, 26 October).
In Kalshi’s separate market on the next presidential election, a candidate backed by the students last traded at 94%. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Serbia published its final election result?
No. RIK has counted 7,926 polling stations so far, and the figures here come from that partial count.
Has the Student List won a majority of seats?
RIK has not published a seat split. A majority needs 126 of 250 seats, and Ipsos and CeSID projected about 138 to 140 for the students.
Sources: Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) partial results, 26 October; Ipsos and CeSID projections, 25 October; Kalshi markets, read 26 October.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief