Spain Conservatives Lead Poll by 2.3 Points
Key Facts
- Election: Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, for both houses of parliament; Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called it on 5 October.
- Latest poll: pollster Sondaxe, published 1 November: conservative PP 29.2%, governing Socialists (PSOE) 26.9%, Vox 19.2%.
- Prediction markets: prediction market Polymarket prices PP leader Feijóo at 84% to be next prime minister, Sánchez 11.2% (6:22 p.m. ET, 1 November 2026).
- Next: Sánchez and Feijóo debate on Monday, 16 November; the official campaign opens on 13 November.
A new poll gives Spain’s main conservative opposition party a small lead four weeks before the Spain Election 2026 vote. The Sondaxe survey, a poll by a Spanish polling firm for La Voz de Galicia, a Galician daily, published on 1 November, put the Popular Party (PP) at 29.2%, 2.3 points ahead of the governing Socialist Party (PSOE) at 26.9%.
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English: Spaniards choose a new parliament on 29 November, made up of the Congress of Deputies (lower house) and the Senate, and parliament then picks the prime minister. The PP is the main conservative party, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) the main centre-left one, and Vox a conservative party that could help the PP govern.
Poll Puts the Popular Party Narrowly Ahead
Vox, a conservative party and the poll’s third-largest, stood at 19.2%, and Frente Amplio, a left-wing alliance, at 7.2%. Podemos, a party on the left, polled 2.0%.
The PP and Vox together reach 48.4%, according to the poll. The PSOE and Frente Amplio together reach 34.1%.
Vox keeps 85.4% of its 2023 voters, against 77% for the PP and 69.4% for the PSOE. Sondaxe interviewed voters from 26 to 28 October, and says its fieldwork preceded the impact of the 28 October train collision near Urda, a town in the province of Toledo.
What Prediction Markets Say
As of 6:22 p.m. ET on 1 November 2026, Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, priced Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, at 84% to become the next prime minister. It put Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist prime minister, at 11.2% and Santiago Abascal, the Vox leader, at 2.5%.
A separate Polymarket market group, with US$283,000 traded, gave the PP 85.5% to win the most seats, and another gave 92% to a combined PP and Vox majority, with US$23,000 traded. Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), also priced Feijóo at 84%.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of news. They are far more confident about Feijóo than a 2.3-point poll lead alone would suggest.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Debate and Campaign Calendar
Sánchez called the election on 5 October, three days after Congress rejected two housing decrees. The official campaign starts on 13 November, though the time zone has not been confirmed.
Sánchez and Feijóo are due to meet face to face on Monday, 16 November, in a debate hosted by Mediaset, a private broadcaster. Feijóo accepted on 9 October, proposing 16 November, and the PSOE accepted the debate on 22 October.
The parties disagree over a four-way debate that would also include the Vox and Frente Amplio leaders. The PSOE has accepted an invitation from RTVE, Spain’s public broadcaster, for Thursday, 26 November, but the PP rejects RTVE and wants that debate held at private group Atresmedia.
Our Spain election polls page tracks the average of the latest surveys. The new Congress and Senate are due to hold their first sessions on 23 December.
What It Means for US Readers
The result will decide who forms the next Spanish government, and Sánchez’s government stays in office in a caretaker capacity until a new government takes office. US traders can follow the outcome live on Kalshi, which is open to US customers.
A narrow poll lead and a large market lead are not the same thing. Readers should watch whether new polls taken after the train collision move the PP’s number.
What Is Not Known
No poll fielded after the Urda train collision has been confirmed. The effect of the collision on voting intentions is therefore not known.
The dates of other recent polls that show different PP and PSOE gaps have not been confirmed. Whether the 26 November four-way debate will go ahead as planned is also unconfirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Spanish general election?
Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, for both houses of parliament, the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. The new parliament is due to meet on 23 December 2026.
Who leads the latest poll?
A Sondaxe poll for La Voz de Galicia, published on 1 November 2026, puts the PP at 29.2% and the PSOE at 26.9%. Its fieldwork, 26 to 28 October, preceded the impact of the Urda train collision.
Sources: Sondaxe poll of 1 November 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi market pages (6:22 p.m. ET, 1 November 2026); Spain’s Official State Gazette (BOE), royal decree 806/2026 dissolving parliament; The Rio Times Spain Election 2026 hub.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error