Published Monday, 9 November, 2:30 a.m. ET (8:30 a.m. Madrid) · Source: SocioMétrica, Spain’s official gazette (BOE), PolymarketSpain’s conservative opposition is the clear favourite three weeks before voters go to the polls, according to a new poll.
Our Spain Election 2026 hub follows the race to the vote on Sunday, 29 November.Key Facts
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
- Who: SocioMétrica, a Spanish polling firm in the Insight Analytics market-research group, directed by Gonzalo Adán.
- What: The People’s Party (PP), Spain’s main centre-right opposition, is projected at 127 to 142 seats; the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) at 107 to 123.
- Majority: 176 of the 350 seats in Congress, the lower house, are needed for an absolute majority; Vox, a right-wing populist party, is at 58 to 69.
- When: Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November; the campaign opens at 6:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, 12 November.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a US prediction-market platform, prices a PP win at 84.5% and a PP and Vox majority at 95.5% (9 November, 2:29 a.m. ET).
In plain English
The PP is Spain’s main centre-right party, and the PSOE is the Socialist party of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Spaniards elect 350 members of Congress, the lower house of parliament, and the party blocs need 176 seats to govern without deals.
What the New Poll Shows
The SocioMétrica poll, published on 9 November 2026, gives the People’s Party between 127 and 142 seats in the 29 November election. It puts the Socialist Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez at 107 to 123 seats and Vox, a right-wing populist party led by Santiago Abascal, at 58 to 69, against 33 for Vox in 2023.
The poll surveyed 4,893 people online, with data pooled since 1 September, and exact fieldwork dates are not given. SocioMétrica found the PP the most-voted party in 93 of every 100 simulated outcomes, and the Socialists matched or beat the PP in seats in 13 of them.
Who Could Govern After 29 November
The PP, Vox and the Navarrese People’s Union (UPN), a small regional conservative party, reached the 176-seat majority in all 100 simulations. The bloc that backed Sánchez’s government after the 2023 election reached 176 in none.
Two weeks earlier the same series gave the PP an 88% chance of finishing first and the right-wing bloc a 99% chance of a majority. The PP stays far ahead in the new numbers, with no sign of a Socialist recovery.
What Voters Think of the Leaders
Asked who will be the next prime minister, 48.7% of respondents named Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, and 28% named Sánchez. Voters therefore expect a change of government.
The Campaign Calendar
The official campaign begins at 00:00 on Friday, 13 November, Spanish time, which is 6:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, 12 November. It ends at 24:00 on Friday, 27 November, or 6:00 p.m. ET that day.
Saturday, 28 November, is a reflection day with no campaigning, and voting takes place on Sunday, 29 November. The new parliament meets on 23 December, under the election decree published in the BOE, Spain’s official gazette.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, a PP win is priced at 84.5% in its Spain General Election Winner market, which has traded about US$387,000. A separate Polymarket market on whether the PP and Vox together win a majority stands at 95.5%, with US$32,222 traded.
Those prices were read on 9 November at 2:29 a.m. ET. They are bets, not polls, and they move as news arrives.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The poll suggests the next government could rest on the PP and Vox together, which makes Vox’s role the main question to watch. Spain’s politics also matter to US firms that work alongside Spanish companies in Europe and Latin America.
What Is Not Known
We could not confirm vote shares for the new poll or its exact fieldwork dates. Debate dates between Sánchez and Feijóo were not settled when we wrote this.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which party will win the most seats in Spain?
A SocioMétrica poll published on 9 November 2026 gives the conservative People’s Party 127 to 142 seats. It puts the Socialists at 107 to 123.
When does Spain vote?
Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026. The official campaign runs from 6:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, 12 November, to 6:00 p.m. ET on Friday, 27 November.
Sources: SocioMétrica poll, the Prime Minister’s office (La Moncloa), Spain’s official gazette (BOE), Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. How we use AI · Report an error