Spain Election Poll Tracker With Seat Projections
This tracker collects every national poll for Spain’s general election on Sunday, 29 November 2026. It shows our average, the seat projection against the 176-seat majority line and the raw data, free to download.
Our average of 16 pollsters puts the People’s Party (PP) on 32.1%, the Socialists (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on 26.4% and Vox on 18.9%, a PP lead of 5.7 points. On the pollsters’ own seat estimates, the PP and Vox together reach about 201 of 350 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority.
Key Facts
—Election. Sunday 29 November 2026; 176 of the 350 seats in Congress make a majority.
—Poll average. PP 32.1%, PSOE 26.4%, Vox 18.9%, Sumar/Broad Front 6.4%.
—Seats. PP and Vox about 201 together; PSOE and its 2023 partners about 146.
—Database. 158 national polls from 2026, each linked to the pollster’s own release.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket: Feijóo 83% to become prime minister, Sánchez 14.1% (21 October, 9:44 a.m. ET).
Data last changed 21 October 2026, 9:47 a.m. ET; last checked 21 October 2026, 9:47 a.m. ET. Polls are checked every 40 minutes, prediction markets every 20.
Who Is Ahead in the Polls
The bars show our current average for each party, and the chart shows how it has moved since January. Every point is built with the same method, so a rise or a fall reflects the polls, not a change in our rules.
Poll average · share of the vote Weighted average of the latest poll of each of 16 pollsters, fieldwork in the last 30 days. Parties under 1% not shown. Poll average since January 2026 Weekly points, same method as the average: each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days before the date.
Seats and the 176-Seat Majority
Vote shares do not turn neatly into seats, because Spain’s smaller provinces elect few deputies and reward the biggest parties there. That is why we show the pollsters’ own seat estimates next to the vote shares.
Seat projection · average of the pollsters’ own estimates Seats out of 350. 15 pollsters published seat estimates; where a pollster gives a range we use its midpoint. This is their projection, not ours. Blocs and the 176-seat majority line The black mark is 176 seats. The 2023 partners backed Sánchez in November 2023: Sumar (then with Podemos), ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and Canarian Coalition. Junts broke with the government in 2025, so that bloc is an upper bound.
The bloc view adds up the two majorities on offer. Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the PP would most likely need Vox, while Pedro Sánchez would again need the left and the regional parties that backed him in 2023.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · Spain’s 29 November election
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who becomes Spain's next prime minister
Polymarket: US$2.0 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), prime minister after the next election: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 81% · Pedro Sánchez 17% · Santiago Abascal 7% (19,795 contracts traded).
Which party wins the most seats on 29 November
Polymarket: US$121,000 traded.
Pedro Sánchez out as prime minister by...
Polymarket: US$883,000 traded. The January contracts do not count time as acting prime minister, and a successor can take office only after the new Congress meets on 23 December.
As of 21 October, 9:44 a.m. ET (14:44 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Every Poll, Newest First
Each card shows one poll with its fieldwork dates, sample size, vote shares and, in brackets, its seat estimates. The link opens the pollster’s or the commissioning outlet’s own release.
The latest CIS estimate (fieldwork ending 6 October) put the PSOE on 34% and the PP on 22.2%, against 26.4% and 32.1% in our average. That gap is why our outlier rule leaves it out.
Show 33 more polls from the last 60 days
PP 34% · PSOE 28.2% · Vox 18.2% · Sumar/FA 3.6% · Release (20minutos.es)
PP 28% · PSOE 28% · Vox 17.8% · Sumar/FA 7.3% · Release (opina360.com)
PP 28.3% · PSOE 28.6% · Vox 17.5% · Sumar/FA 7.9% · Release (x.com)
PP 22.2% · PSOE 34% · Vox 17.1% · Sumar/FA 6.1% · Release (cis.es)
PP 34.1% · PSOE 25% · Vox 18.2% · Sumar/FA 5.3% · Release (larazon.es)
PP 31.3% · PSOE 26.9% · Vox 19.4% · Sumar/FA 6.3% · Release (electomania.es)
PP 33.4% · PSOE 26.5% · Vox 18.1% · Sumar/FA 5.3% · Release (elespanol.com)
PP 34% · PSOE 26.1% · Vox 18.6% · Sumar/FA 5.2% · Release (okdiario.com)
PP 31.3% · PSOE 24.9% · Vox 19.1% · Sumar/FA 6.8% · Release (articulo14.es)
PP 33.2% · PSOE 27.5% · Vox 19.2% · Sumar/FA 7% · Release (eldiario.es)
PP 32.6% · PSOE 25.6% · Vox 18.3% · Sumar/FA 6.6% · Release (elmundo.es)
PP 31.6% · PSOE 27.4% · Vox 18.4% · Sumar/FA 5.6% · Release (elpais.com)
PP 33.9% · PSOE 25.7% · Vox 18% · Sumar/FA 5.7% · Release (elespanol.com)
PP 32.3% · PSOE 25.3% · Vox 18.8% · Sumar/FA 6.5% · Release (electomania.es)
PP 33.9% · PSOE 25.4% · Vox 17.8% · Sumar/FA 6.4% · Release (ondacero.es)
PP 34.7% · PSOE 26.3% · Vox 17.3% · Sumar/FA 4.5% · Release (20minutos.es)
PP 32.1% · PSOE 25.6% · Vox 19.1% · Sumar/FA 6.8% · Release (electomania.es)
PP 33.7% · PSOE 26.8% · Vox 18.6% · Sumar/FA 6.1% · Release (lasexta.com)
PP 31.5% · PSOE 25.6% · Vox 18.9% · Sumar/FA 6.9% · Release (eldebate.com)
PP 32.2% · PSOE 25.4% · Vox 19.2% · Sumar/FA 6.9% · Release (electomania.es)
PP 33.6% · PSOE 25.1% · Vox 19.3% · Sumar/FA 5.6% · Release (vozpopuli.com)
PP 31.9% · PSOE 26.8% · Vox 17.8% · Sumar/FA 6% · Release (eldebate.com)
PP 29.5% · PSOE 27.6% · Vox 17.6% · Sumar/FA 6.8% · Release (x.com)
PP 25.5% · PSOE 31% · Vox 16.6% · Sumar/FA 5.7% · Release (cis.es)
PP 34.5% · PSOE 24.9% · Vox 18.3% · Sumar/FA 5.7% · Release (larazon.es)
PP 31.1% · PSOE 26.1% · Vox 19.2% · Sumar/FA 7% · Release (abc.es)
PP 32% · PSOE 25.6% · Vox 19.2% · Sumar/FA 6.7% · Release (electomania.es)
PP 32.4% · PSOE 27.6% · Vox 17.8% · Sumar/FA 5.7% · Release (elpais.com)
PP 28.7% · PSOE 27% · Vox 20.3% · Sumar/FA 6.6% · Release (moreincommones.substack.com)
PP 32.3% · PSOE 25.7% · Vox 19% · Sumar/FA 6.4% · Release (electomania.es)
PP 34.3% · PSOE 25.4% · Vox 18.1% · Sumar/FA 6.3% · Release (okdiario.com)
PP 33.1% · PSOE 25.4% · Vox 17.9% · Sumar/FA 6.6% · Release (elmundo.es)
PP 30.1% · PSOE 28.1% · Vox 16.1% · Sumar/FA 6.1% · Release (agendapublica.es)
All 158 polls of 2026 are in the CSV and JSON files.
Download the Poll Data
Free to use under CC BY 4.0: credit The Rio Times and link to this page. UTF-8, header row, ISO dates (YYYY-MM-DD).
158 rows, one per poll, newest first. Columns: poll_id, pollster, commissioner, fieldwork dates, sample_size, turnout_pct, a share and a seat column per party (sumar includes Compromís; fv is the Compromís part, already inside sumar), flags (state_pollster, cis_reestimate, party_poll, outlier, in_average) and source_url.
How to Read This Tracker
Shares come first. A party’s share of the vote is the firmest number in a poll; seat estimates add a second layer of assumptions.
Small moves are noise. A poll of 1,000 people has a margin of error of about three points either way.
Fieldwork dates matter. A poll describes the days of its interviews, not the day it was published.
One pollster, one voice. Each pollster counts once, with its newest poll, so a firm that publishes often does not swamp the others.
Labels on the cards. The state pollster, re-estimates of its data, party-commissioned polls and outliers are marked, and only labelled “in the average” polls count.
How the Average Works
The average uses the newest national poll of each pollster whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. Each poll is weighted by age, with its weight halving every 14 days, and by sample size, using the square root of the sample divided by 1,000, capped between half and double weight.
Re-estimates of CIS data by other firms, polls commissioned by parties and polls of polls stay in the database but out of the average. A poll is also left out as an outlier when the PP, the PSOE or Vox sits more than 7 points from the median of the other pollsters’ latest polls.
Seat numbers are the same weighted average of the pollsters’ own seat estimates, using the midpoint of any range. Sumar’s alliance runs as Broad Front (Frente Amplio) in the newest polls, and we add Compromís, its Valencian partner that now runs separately, so the series stays comparable.
The average is not a forecast, and polls can miss. Before Spain’s July 2023 election most final polls put the PP and Vox at or near a majority, but the two parties won 170 seats.
Cite This Data
The data is free to use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (CC BY 4.0). Please credit “Source: The Rio Times (riotimesonline.com/spain-election-poll-tracker/)” and link to this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the Spain election polls?
The People's Party (PP) leads our average with 32.1%, ahead of the Socialists (PSOE) on 26.4% and Vox on 18.9%, based on the latest poll of 16 pollsters.
Can the PP and Vox win a majority?
On the pollsters' own seat estimates the two parties reach about 201 of 350 seats together; 176 are a majority. Seat estimates are less precise than vote shares.
When is the Spanish general election?
Spain votes on Sunday 29 November 2026. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the early election in October 2026.
Why is the CIS not in the average?
The CIS is Spain's state polling institute. Its recent estimates put the PSOE far ahead of every private pollster, so our outlier rule keeps it out of the average; it stays listed in the data.
Can I use this poll data?
Yes. Download the CSV or JSON for free under a CC BY 4.0 licence, credit The Rio Times and link to this page.
More on Spain’s Election
For the story behind the numbers, start with our Spain election 2026 dossier and the Pedro Sánchez scandal explainer. Our profile of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Spain explained add the background.
Sources: the list “Opinion polling for the 2026 Spanish general election” on Wikipedia (current revision, checked every 40 minutes) and the release of each pollster or commissioning outlet, linked on every card; Centre for Sociological Research (cis.es); Polymarket and Kalshi public price data. Compiled and averaged by The Rio Times.