Spain Poll Cuts Right’s Lead to 1.3 Points
Key Facts
- What. A poll by 40dB, a Spanish polling firm, for the daily El País and Cadena SER radio puts the conservative People’s Party (PP) at 31.1% and the Socialists (PSOE) at 29.8%.
- Aggregate. Of 19 pollsters with recent fieldwork, 17 put the PP first; SW Demoscopia and the state-run Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) put the PSOE first.
- When. Spain votes on Sunday 29 November, 15 days after this report, for all 350 seats in Congress.
- Prediction markets. Polymarket prices the PP to win the most seats at 81.5% (US$226,930 traded on that market), as of 14 November, 6:22 p.m. ET.
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Spain's Right Leads Polls With Vote Nearing
One Poll Narrows the Gap
Spain’s conservative opposition still leads, but one new poll shows the race tightening in the Spain Election 2026 coverage. A 40dB survey for El País and Cadena SER, published on 14 November, puts the conservative People’s Party (PP) of Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 31.1% and the Socialists (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez at 29.8%.
That 1.3-point gap is the narrowest among the major private polls listed by Mapa Electoral, an independent poll tracker. Vox, the conservative party led by Santiago Abascal, stands at 18.5%.
40dB projects 123–134 seats for the PP, 116–123 for the PSOE and 61–67 for Vox in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies, the lower house of parliament. 40dB interviewed 1,500 people online from 10 to 13 November, with a margin of error of 2.5 points.
Most Pollsters Still Favour the Right
Of 19 pollsters with recent fieldwork, 17 put the PP first, according to Mapa Electoral. SW Demoscopia, a polling firm working for the outlet La Séptima, and the CIS, the state pollster, put the PSOE ahead, and Vox is third in every poll.
SW Demoscopia, also published on 14 November, has the PSOE at 31.7% and the PP at 28.3%. The CIS estimate of 12 November has the PSOE at 33.3%, the PP at 25.5% and Vox at 18.4%.
YouGov for the Catalan daily Ara, published 14 November, has the PP at 29.6% and the PSOE at 25.9%. Sigma Dos, a polling firm, for the Madrid daily El Mundo, published 13 November, has the PP at 31.0% and the PSOE at 25.4%.
Why the Majority Maths Favours the Right
Of the 17 polls that publish seat projections, 15 give the PP and Vox together at least the 176 seats needed for a majority. Across the 12 pollsters that publish full seat counts, the average is PP 130, PSOE 108 and Vox 66, or 196 for the PP and Vox combined.
Mapa Electoral’s own model, which is a simulation rather than a poll, gives the PP and Vox 176 seats or more in 90% of runs.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, prices the PP to win the most seats at 81.5% and a PP and Vox majority at 89.5%, as of 14 November, 6:22 p.m. ET. Volume is US$226,930 on the most-seats market and US$70,249 on the majority market.
Prices are real-money bets, not polls, and they can move quickly.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain is a NATO ally and a popular destination for American travellers, so a change of government in Madrid matters beyond Europe. The polls and Polymarket both point to a PP-led government, though a close race can still change who governs.
What Is Not Known
Official polling-station hours, debate dates and the full campaign calendar are unconfirmed. No Senate polling was found.
Poll figures come from the Mapa Electoral tracker, and seat ranges differ slightly between outlets. The CIS figures were not confirmed against its own release.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the latest Spanish polls?
Seventeen of 19 pollsters with recent fieldwork put the People’s Party first, according to the Mapa Electoral aggregator. SW Demoscopia and the state-run CIS put the Socialists ahead.
How close is the 40dB poll?
The 40dB poll for El País and Cadena SER, published on 14 November, has the PP at 31.1% and the PSOE at 29.8%. That 1.3-point gap is the narrowest among the major private polls listed.
When is the Spanish election?
Spain votes on Sunday 29 November for all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies. A party needs 176 seats for an absolute majority.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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