Key Facts
- The Poll. SW Demoscopia, a Spanish polling firm, puts Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE) on 29.8% and the conservative Popular Party (PP) on 29.1%.
- The Seats. PSOE 126, PP 118, Vox (a conservative nationalist party) 62, in a 350-seat Congress. A majority needs 176.
- Next Date. Spain votes Sunday, 29 November 2026 for the Congress of Deputies and Senate. The new Congress meets on 23 December.
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, a crypto-based market, 6 November, 6:22 a.m. ET: PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo 91.5%, Sánchez 7.8% to be next prime minister.
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Spain Election Day on 29 November 2026, Times and Rules
Published Friday, 6 November, 6:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. Madrid) · Source: SW Demoscopia poll, Polymarket, Spain’s official gazette (BOE), Rio Times research
A Poll That Breaks The Pattern
A poll published on 5 November by SW Demoscopia puts Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialist Party (PSOE) narrowly ahead of the conservative Popular Party (PP), against most other recent private polls. It gives the PSOE 29.8% and the PP 29.1%, with Vox, a conservative nationalist party led by Santiago Abascal, on 16%.
The survey projects 126 seats for the PSOE, 118 for the PP and 62 for Vox in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies. A majority requires 176 seats.
On those numbers the PP and Vox together would hold 180 seats, barely above the threshold. Fieldwork was on 4 November, after the transport minister's resignation.
Our full coverage sits on the Spain Election 2026 hub. The poll gives no sample size.
Other Surveys Point The Other Way
Sigma Dos, a Spanish polling firm, interviewed voters on 29-30 October and found the PP on 31.1%, the PSOE on 24.6% and Vox on 19.3%. It projects 97 to 103 seats for the PSOE and 196 to 208 for the PP and Vox combined.
Sondaxe, another Spanish pollster, interviewed on 26-28 October and found the PP on 29.2%, the PSOE on 26.9% and Vox on 19.2%. Hamalgama Métrica, a Spanish polling firm, interviewed on 22-28 October and projects 137 seats for the PP, 106 for the PSOE and 70 for Vox.
The PolitPro aggregate, a weighted average of institutes, stood on 6 November at PP 29.8%, PSOE 26% and Vox 18.8%. It translates that into 128 seats for the PP, 112 for the PSOE and 81 for Vox.
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| DOGE | 0.07 | +2.11% | -55.08% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 941,938,624 |
| AVAX | 8.39 | +2.92% | -47.89% | 8.15 | 8.39 | 8.15 | 307,731,040 |
| LINK | 10.88 | +2.14% | -26.08% | 10.65 | 10.91 | 10.65 | 406,436,704 |
| DOT | 0.93 | +2.88% | -65.01% | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 93,002,400 |
| LTC | 53.01 | +2.84% | -39.07% | 51.55 | 53.01 | 51.55 | 254,939,648 |
| BCH | 267.65 | -1.37% | -43.34% | 271.37 | 278.03 | 262.04 | 276,817,056 |
| TRX | 0.32 | +0.06% | +12.05% | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 428,446,272 |
| XLM | 0.15 | +1.53% | -42.55% | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 182,146,080 |
| HBAR | 0.07 | +2.04% | -57.82% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 71,225,960 |
| NEAR | 3.74 | +2.39% | +78.61% | 3.65 | 3.77 | 3.64 | 775,390,080 |
| ATOM | 1.42 | +4.73% | -46.46% | 1.35 | 1.43 | 1.35 | 42,218,140 |
| AAVE | 129.31 | +0.78% | -34.32% | 128.31 | 131.43 | 128.22 | 369,694,752 |
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, was priced at 91.5% to become the next prime minister on 6 November at 6:22 a.m. ET, with Sánchez at 7.8% and Vox leader Abascal at 1.4%. About US$2.8 million has been traded on the market.
Feijóo stood at 84% on 3 November. Prices are bets rather than polls and can move quickly.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Calendar And The Backdrop
Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November, after Sánchez called a snap election on 5 October, three days after Congress rejected two housing decrees. The PP, Vox and Junts, a Catalan party, were among those who voted against, and the vote had been due in 2027.
The new Congress meets on 23 December, and only then can a new prime minister take office. A one-on-one debate between Sánchez and Feijóo is reported for Monday, 16 November, and a four-way debate is planned for Thursday, 26 November.
A high-speed train collision near Urda, in Toledo province, killed 69 people on 28 October. Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned on 3 November and gave up leading the PSOE list for Valladolid.
Some outlets tie the PSOE's drop to about 100 seats in certain polls to the crash. His name stays on the printed ballot in Valladolid.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain's 29 November vote will decide whether one of Europe's remaining left-leaning governments survives. Polling averages and prediction markets both still point to a PP-led outcome, and Rio Times shows them side by side.
A single poll showing a Socialist lead is a reason to watch the next surveys, not yet a change in the race.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the SW Demoscopia result reflects a real Socialist recovery or is an outlier. The poll gives no sample size, and nearly all other private polls we reviewed show the PP ahead, while Spain's state polling institute (CIS) showed the PSOE ahead in October.
Broadcasters and times for the debates are not confirmed. Reports conflict on where the one-on-one is shown, and the PSOE and PP disagree over whether RTVE or Atresmedia hosts the four-way debate.
SW Demoscopia is the only poll we found fielded after Puente's resignation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which poll puts the Socialists ahead in Spain?
SW Demoscopia, published on 5 November, gives the PSOE 29.8% and the PP 29.1%. It contradicts most other private polls, which show the PP ahead.
When is Spain’s general election?
Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, for the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. The new Congress meets on 23 December, and only then can a new prime minister take office.
Who do prediction markets favor?
On Polymarket, Alberto Núñez Feijóo was priced at 91.5% to become the next prime minister on 6 November at 6:22 a.m. ET, against 7.8% for Pedro Sánchez. These are betting-market prices, not polls.
Is the Socialist lead real?
It is not known. The poll gives no sample size, and nearly all other private polls we reviewed show the PP ahead.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief