Spain Poll Shows Right Bloc Near 200 Seats
SPAIN · ELECTION POLLS
Spain’s conservatives are heading into the final 17 days of the campaign with a poll lead that two surveys turn into a possible majority. As covered in our Spain Election 2026 hub, the vote on 29 November was called after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez lost a parliamentary vote on housing.
For US readers, the result decides who governs Spain, a major European economy and US trading partner. Real-money markets already treat the opposition leader as the clear favourite.
Key Facts
- Vote Spain elects its 350-seat Congress of Deputies on 29 November; 176 seats make a majority.
- Polls One survey gives the People’s Party 136 seats and Vox 63, together 199.
- Prediction markets Kalshi, as of 5:04 a.m. ET on 12 November: Feijóo 88%, Sánchez 10% to be prime minister. Polymarket: PP 84% to win most seats.
- Next The new parliament meets on 23 December; a prime minister is chosen after that.
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
The Polls Point to a Right-Wing Majority
A survey by DYM, a Spanish polling firm, with fieldwork on 4 to 6 November gave the People’s Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 33.1% and 135 to 139 seats. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) of Sánchez had 27.3% and 104 to 108 seats.
A survey by GAD3, another Spanish polling firm, published on 9 November put the PP on 31.9% and 136 seats. Vox, the conservative party led by Santiago Abascal, had 18.6% and 63 seats, a combined 199 against the 176 needed for an absolute majority in the 350-seat chamber.
Other Surveys Point the Same Way
DATA10, a polling firm, found the PP on 32.4% and 134 seats in fieldwork on 2 and 3 November. Its survey gave the PSOE 24.7% and 97 seats, and Vox 19.8% and 69 seats.
NC Report, a polling firm, surveyed on 2 to 5 November and gave Vox 67 to 69 seats and the PSOE 99 to 101. Surveys differ on the exact split, but each shows the PP clearly ahead of the PSOE.
Why the Race Moved After a Minister Quit
Óscar Puente, Spain’s transport minister, announced on 3 November that he was stepping down. He did so six days after a rail accident near Urda, in central Spain, and gave up his place on the PSOE’s candidate lists.
Puente had been due to head the PSOE list in Valladolid. The surveys above were taken around his exit, and we could not confirm whether any later poll shows a change.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), traders priced Feijóo at 88% to become prime minister after the election as of 5:04 a.m. ET on 12 November. They priced Sánchez at 10% and Abascal at 7%, with 50,863 contracts traded.
On Polymarket, a crypto-based market, the contract on which party wins the most seats showed the PP at 84% and the PSOE at 16%, with US$469,374 traded. A separate Polymarket contract on a PP and Vox majority stood at 90%, with US$58,042 traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A right-wing majority would end the minority government that has struggled to pass laws, including the housing decrees that parliament rejected on 2 October. Investors in Spanish assets and US companies operating there should expect a government more dependent on Vox, or on the PP alone if it gets close to 176.
Seat counts can differ from vote shares. A party that leads must still win a parliamentary vote to form a government, which can take weeks.
What Is Not Known
We found no poll published after Puente’s exit that we could verify against the pollster’s own release. Seat estimates are projections, not results.
Spanish media have reported further surveys, but their dates and figures conflict, so we left them out. We will update the picture as new polls arrive.
Where to Read More
Related: Spain Holds General Strike Over Housing and Spain Poll Gives Opposition Up to 142 Seats.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Spain’s general election?
Spain votes on Sunday 29 November 2026 for the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. The new parliament is due to meet on 23 December.
What do the latest polls show?
Several polls put the conservative People’s Party (PP) first. One survey gives the PP and the conservative party Vox a combined 199 seats, against 176 needed for a majority in Congress.
What do prediction markets say?
Kalshi traders priced Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 88% to become prime minister as of 5:04 a.m. ET on 12 November. These prices are bets, not polls.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error