Spain Poll Puts Socialists Below 100 Seats
Key Facts
- Who: Sigma Dos, a Spanish polling firm, surveyed for El Mundo, a Madrid daily.
- What: The Socialists (PSOE) are at 24.6%, down 1.5 points, with 97 to 103 seats. The conservative People’s Party (PP) is at 31.1% with 133 to 139.
- Majority: PP and Vox, a conservative party, would hold at least 196 of 350 Congress seats. A majority needs 176.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Alberto Núñez Feijóo 84% to become prime minister and Pedro Sánchez 11.6% (2 November, 12:22 p.m. ET).
- Next date: Election day is Sunday 29 November 2026, and the new Congress and Senate convene on 23 December.
Socialists Slip Under 100 Seats
A Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo puts the Socialist Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez at 24.6% of the vote, down 1.5 points in a week. That would leave it with 97 to 103 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, below 100 seats for the first time in this poll series.
The vote is part of the Spain Election 2026 coverage of The Rio Times. Fieldwork took place on 29 and 30 October, the two days after a high-speed train collision near Urda, in Toledo province.
El Mundo published the results on 2 November. The conservative People's Party (PP) of opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo rose half a point to 31.1% and would win 133 to 139 seats.
The Rio Times poll average on 2 November has the PP at 31.3% and the PSOE at 26.6%, a gap of 4.7 points, against 1.4 points at the last general election. Vox stands at about 19% and, in recent private polls, would roughly double its seats, from 33 in 2023 to around 65.
Together, the PP and Vox would win well above the 176 seats needed for a majority.
What the Poll Means for the Left
Frente Amplio is a left-wing alliance of parties. Sumar, the left-wing platform it builds on, won 31 seats in 2023, when the Socialists won 121.
Its candidate, Ada Colau, a former Barcelona mayor, has called for Transport Minister Óscar Puente to resign "as soon as possible".
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, Feijóo stands at 84% to become the next prime minister, with Sánchez at 11.6% and the Vox leader Santiago Abascal at 2.5%. About US$2.59 million has been traded on the market, read on 2 November at 12:22 p.m. ET.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of the news. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed no price we could confirm today.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Dates to Watch
Spaniards vote on Sunday 29 November, choosing all 350 Congress seats and 209 directly elected Senate seats. The new Congress and Senate convene on 23 December, and a prime minister can take office only after that.
Sánchez announced the dissolution of Parliament on 5 October, and the decree took effect on 6 October, after Congress rejected his housing decrees on 2 October. Sánchez and Feijóo are due to debate on private television on Monday 16 November, after the PSOE accepted the proposal on 22 October.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain's vote on 29 November is followed closely by US investors and campaigns, partly through prediction markets. US citizens living in or investing in Spain face the outcome of the vote on 29 November.
The poll is a single snapshot taken in the immediate aftermath of a national tragedy. US readers should weigh it against other institutes, which show a narrower PP lead.
What Is Not Known
The sample size and margin of error of the Sigma Dos poll are unknown. It is also unclear whether the drop will last, since it rests on one poll covering two days of fieldwork.
Other institutes show a narrower gap. 40dB, a polling firm working for the newspaper El País and the radio network Cadena SER, has the PP at 31.9% and the PSOE at 28.1%, a lead of 3.8 points.
At least 69 people died in the Urda crash, according to the latest reports. The cause and any liability have not been established.
The debate’s broadcaster and start time have not been confirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new Sigma Dos poll show?
It puts the PP at 31.1% and 133 to 139 seats, and the PSOE at 24.6% and 97 to 103 seats. Vox is at about 19%.
When is Spain's general election?
Spaniards vote on Sunday 29 November 2026 for the Congress and most of the Senate. The new chambers convene on 23 December.
Who do prediction markets favor?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the PP stood at 84% to become prime minister on Polymarket on 2 November, against 11.6% for Pedro Sánchez. These are bets, not polls.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief