Who Holds Real Power in Cuba

CUBA · POWER

Cuba is run by one party, a military-led business empire and a shrinking circle around the Castro family. Here is who holds power, who is shut out and what it means in November 2026.

Power in Cuba sits with the Communist Party, the armed forces and a small circle tied to the Castro family. No rival party, free union or contested election exists to challenge them.

Washington has sanctioned that circle directly since May 2026. This guide maps who dominates whom, by institution, region, skin colour and wealth.

More coverage sits on the Rio Times Cuba page. Figures come from official documents and international bodies, and what could not be confirmed is listed at the end.

Who Holds Formal Power in Cuba

The 2019 Constitution calls the Communist Party the superior driving force of society and the state (Article 5). No other party is legal, and the US State Department’s 2023 report found one candidate per post.

That report called Cuba’s elections neither free nor fair. The Constitution names no other party, and none can legally form.

Miguel Díaz-Canel, born in Santa Clara in 1960, is president of the republic and first secretary of the Communist Party. The National Assembly elects the president from among its members for five years (Article 126).

Manuel Marrero Cruz is prime minister, and Esteban Lazo Hernández presides over the National Assembly. Marrero signed Decree 184 on 29 September 2026, and Lazo signed the oil and gas law dated 3 September 2026.

For the officeholders in detail, see the Rio Times guide to Cuba’s political key players. Daily hardship is covered in the Cuba people and daily life explainer.

The Assembly has 470 deputies, elected on Sunday, 26 March 2023, when all 470 candidates on the ballot won seats. Turnout was 75.92% in the electoral commission’s preliminary count.

The Party’s Central Committee postponed the Ninth Party Congress, due in April 2026, at a plenum on Saturday, 13 December 2025. Raúl Castro had written to the plenum calling a delay advisable, and no new date has been found.

The Castro Family and the Inner Circle

Raúl Castro, 94, led the Party until April 2021 and holds no formal office in the sources checked. On Wednesday, 20 May 2026 the US Justice Department unsealed an indictment against him and five others.

The case concerns the shootdown of two unarmed civilian planes on 24 February 1996, which killed four people. The charges include murder and conspiracy to kill US nationals, and an indictment is an allegation, not a verdict.

Cuba’s president called the indictment a political manoeuvre. No court has ruled on the charges.

On Thursday, 4 June 2026 OFAC, the US Treasury’s sanctions arm, listed Díaz-Canel and his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza. It also listed her son Manuel Anido Cuesta and Alejandro Castro Espín, widely reported as Raúl Castro’s son.

Executive Order 14404 of 1 May 2026 set up a new US sanctions programme covering Cuban energy, defence, mining, finance and security. OFAC’s entries link relatives to listed people, so the sanctions now reach households as well as offices.

The Military, the Interior Ministry and GAESA

Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) and the Interior Ministry (MININT), which runs police and state security, carry the Party’s weight. The State Department’s 2023 human rights report says military courts can try civilians if a defendant is or was a service member.

GAESA, the Business Administration Group, is a holding company established on 28 February 1999 and controlled by the military. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 7 May 2026 that it controls an estimated 40% or more of the economy.

He cited public estimates that its revenues are more than three times the state budget and its assets up to US$20 billion. These are US government claims, and the sources checked contain no Cuban figure to compare.

Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera is GAESA’s executive president, and OFAC listed her on 7 May 2026 with Moa Nickel SA. Moa Nickel is a joint venture of the Canadian miner Sherritt International and Cuba’s state nickel company.

Sherritt said it suspended its direct role in the venture on 7 May. Its share of finished nickel fell to 1,319 tonnes in the second quarter, from 3,431 a year earlier.

OFAC’s FAQ 1258 of 4 June 2026 says GAESA, MININT and the armed forces ministry (MINFAR) are all blocked. It extends the risk to any entity they own 50% or more, including many on the Cuba Restricted List.

On Thursday, 6 August 2026 Washington also sanctioned armed forces minister Gen. Álvaro López Miera and chief of staff Roberto Legrá. The listings cited arms procurement.

Cuba is opening a different door at the same time, with an oil and gas law that welcomes foreign capital. Decree-Law 135, dated 3 September 2026, allows production-sharing contracts of up to 40 years and concessions of up to 30 years.

It took effect seven days after its publication on 12 October, which is 19 October. Foreign partners must weigh it against the US rule that blocks entities owned 50% or more by listed persons.

Regions and Skin Colour in Cuban Power

Cuba’s 2012 census, the last national count by skin colour, found 64.1% of people white, 26.6% mixed-race and 9.3% Black. The statistics office, ONEI, also broke the figures down by province.

Havana has the largest Black share, 15.2%, followed by Santiago de Cuba at 14.2% and Guantánamo at 12.8%. Mixed-race people are a majority in Guantánamo at 62.8%, Santiago de Cuba at 60.2% and Granma at 54.3%.

Power does not follow that map. Díaz-Canel was born in Santa Clara in the centre, and OFAC lists his wife as born in Holguín in the east.

OFAC lists the armed forces ministry and GAESA at addresses in Havana. Whether eastern provinces hold a share of top posts matching their population is not documented in the sources checked.

Article 42 of the Constitution bans discrimination on grounds including skin colour and ethnic origin. The State Department’s 2023 report nonetheless says Afro-Cubans remained severely underrepresented in ministerial positions and the Politburo, the Party’s top decision body.

It adds that Afro-Cubans were largely absent from the highest ranks of the armed forces and the Interior Ministry. The sources checked show no recent official breakdown of those bodies by skin colour.

How Cuba Power Is Shared With Business, Churches and Unions

The Constitution recognises several forms of property and treats private property as a complement to the state economy (Article 22). The sources checked give no current count of small private firms, known as mipymes.

The Constitution declares Cuba secular and guarantees religious freedom (Article 15). The State Department’s 2023 religious freedom report says the Party’s Office of Religious Affairs still regulates registration, travel and building permits.

The Catholic Church estimates that 60% of Cubans are Catholic, and Protestants account for about 5%. Afro-Cuban faiths such as Santería have no count, because many followers also call themselves Catholic.

The same report says membership of an unregistered religious group is a crime, with penalties from fines to three months in prison. In February 2023 Cardinal Beniamino Stella visited as the Pope’s envoy and urged amnesty for jailed protesters.

The Constitution recognises mass organisations and lets the head of the Workers’ Central Union (CTC) attend cabinet sessions (Articles 14 and 134). The State Department calls the CTC Party-controlled and says the law gives no right to strike.

It says the government prevented independent unions in all sectors. OFAC also listed the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, the neighbourhood committees known as CDR, on 4 June 2026.

Inequality and Who Is Left Out

World Bank data show Cuba’s output fell 1.9% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024, the latest years it publishes. Its estimate puts the population at 10.9 million in 2025.

The US State Department’s 2023 report cites the rights group Prisoners Defenders as counting at least 1,047 political prisoners in August 2023. Justicia 11J, a group tracking the protests of 11 July 2021, said 837 of 1,400 arrested were still held.

These are figures from rights groups, and the Cuban government has called such claims politically motivated. The people with least say are independent unionists, would-be opposition candidates and jailed protesters.

Afro-Cubans seeking senior posts also have little voice in the top bodies, on the State Department’s account. Households that live on state pay alone are not documented here, because Cuban wage data could not be reached.

What It Means for US Readers

US law bars ordinary tourism to Cuba, and travel is allowed only in licensed categories. Rules on remittances and trips sit with OFAC, so its Cuba page is the place to check before sending money.

Executive Order 14404 lets Washington sanction foreign companies and banks that operate in Cuban energy, defence, mining, finance or security. OFAC extends that risk to entities half or more owned by GAESA, MININT or MINFAR, so partners carry US risk.

For investors, the live question is whether the new oil and gas law draws partners that sanctions have not already deterred. Sherritt’s suspension in Moa shows how fast a listing can change a joint venture.

For a wider view of Havana’s alliances, read the Cuba geopolitics explainer. The Rio Times Latin America Power Index ranks Cuba’s power against 13 other countries.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, where users bet real money, asks whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will be out as leader of Cuba by 31 December 2026. It showed 4.2% at 6:54 a.m. ET on 3 November, with bid 3.3 cents, ask 5.0 cents and about US$790,000 traded.

A separate Polymarket contract on his exit as President of Cuba had only about US$5,400 traded, so it is not used here. Earlier contracts for 31 March and 30 June are closed.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

• Politburo and Central Committee: the current membership after the postponed Ninth Congress is not confirmed in the sources checked, and no new congress date was found.
• GAESA: neither its accounts nor the basis of the 40% estimate are public in the sources checked, and the US figures are claims.
• Skin colour in power: no recent official breakdown of ministers, officers or the Politburo was found, so the 2012 census is the latest national count.
• Wages, prices and private business: current Cuban statistics on wages, inflation and private firms could not be reached or confirmed, so none are given.
• Succession: who would follow Díaz-Canel is not publicly signalled, and Raúl Castro’s current role and health are not documented.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who runs Cuba in 2026?

Miguel Díaz-Canel is president and Communist Party first secretary, with Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz heading the government. The armed forces and their holding company GAESA hold large economic power behind them.

Is Cuba a one-party state?

Yes, the Constitution names the Communist Party the superior driving force, and no other party is legal. The State Department found only one candidate per post in its 2023 review.

What is GAESA?

GAESA is a holding company controlled by the Cuban military and established in 1999. US officials estimate it controls 40% or more of the economy, and OFAC listed it on 7 May 2026.

Are Black Cubans in power in Cuba?

The 2012 census counted 9.3% Black and 26.6% mixed-race Cubans. The State Department says Afro-Cubans are severely underrepresented in ministerial posts and the Politburo.

Does Raúl Castro still rule Cuba?

He led the Party until April 2021 and holds no current office in the sources checked. The US Justice Department indicted him on 20 May 2026 over the 1996 shootdown, which is an allegation.

Does Cuba allow independent unions or churches?

Churches are allowed but must register, and the Party’s Office of Religious Affairs oversees them. The State Department says the government prevented independent unions in all sectors.

What do the sanctions on Cuban leaders mean for Americans?

Americans still cannot visit Cuba as tourists, and dealings with GAESA or its subsidiaries are blocked under US rules. Firms in other countries that deal with them risk US sanctions too.

Sources: OFAC, recent actions, 7 May 2026; OFAC, recent actions, 4 June 2026; OFAC, FAQ 1251 on Executive Order 14404; OFAC, FAQ 1258 on GAESA, MININT and MINFAR; OFAC, Cuba sanctions programme; US Justice Department, indictment of Raúl Castro, 20 May 2026; Constitution of Cuba, 2019; US State Department, 2023 human rights report on Cuba; US State Department, 2023 religious freedom report on Cuba; ONEI, skin colour in the 2012 census (copy of the publication); World Bank, GDP growth, Cuba; World Bank, population, Cuba; Sherritt International, second quarter 2026 results; Gaceta Oficial No. 85, 12 October 2026 (Decree-Law 135 and Decree 184); Polymarket, public market data, 3 November 2026 (all accessed 3 November 2026).