Cuba Population and Ethnic Groups Explained

CUBA · POPULATION

The Cuba population is shrinking and aging fast, and nearly 3 million people of Cuban origin now live in the United States.This guide shows how many people live on the island, who they are, how the groups mix and where Cubans went.

Cuba Population at a Glance

The World Bank, using United Nations estimates, puts Cuba’s population at 10,937,203 in 2025. That is down from 11,176,354 in 2020, a loss of about 239,000 people in five years.

Women are 50.7% of the total in 2025. The island has about 106 people per square kilometer (2024).

Four terms appear often in this guide, so here they are in plain English. Each one is used the same way throughout.

• Population: all the people living in a country, counted in a census or estimated by statisticians.
• Net migration: the number of people arriving in a year minus the number leaving.
• Fertility rate: the average number of children a woman has in her life.
• Afro-descendant: a person who identifies as Black or of mixed African ancestry.

Population Year by Year

The World Bank series shows 11,202,846 people in 2019 and 10,937,203 in 2025. The yearly change was negative in each of those years, with the sharpest drop, 0.56%, in 2022.

The fall was 0.36% in 2024 and 0.39% in 2025, so the pace has eased only slightly since 2022. In 2025 the island lost about 43,000 people.

An Aging Island

In 2025, 17.0% of the Cuba population was 65 or older, about 1.9 million people, and 15.0% was under 15. Adults of working age, 15 to 64, made up 67.9%.

The share of people 65 and older rose from 15.6% in 2020 to 17.0% in 2025. The under-15 share fell from 15.8% to 15.0%, so older Cubans now outnumber children.

In 2019 there were about 4.5 working-age Cubans for every person 65 or older. By 2025 the ratio had fallen to about 4.0.

Women had 1.45 children on average in 2024, down from 1.54 in 2019. The birth rate was 8.6 per 1,000 people and the death rate was 10.4.

Life expectancy at birth was 78.3 years in 2024, and 6.8 of every 1,000 babies died before their first birthday. Deaths now exceed births, and more people leave than arrive, so the island loses people twice over.

The birth rate fell from 9.7 per 1,000 people in 2019 to 8.6 in 2024. The death rate rose from 10.0 to 10.4.

Infant deaths rose from 5.4 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 6.8 in 2024. That counts babies who die before their first birthday.

Life expectancy was 77.4 years in 2019 and dipped to 73.2 in 2021. It recovered to 78.3 years by 2024.

Where Cubans Live

About 77.2% of Cubans lived in towns and cities in 2025, and 22.8% lived in the countryside. The urban share has hardly moved since 2020, when it was 77.1%.

Havana is the capital, as Article 2 of the 2019 Constitution states. The national territory is divided into provinces and municipalities whose number and borders are set by law (Article 166).

People of African descent are slightly more common in the countryside, at 37.0% of rural residents, than in towns, at 35.5%. That gap is small, so Black and mixed Cubans live in cities and villages in nearly equal proportions.

Ethnic Groups and Skin Color

ECLAC, the UN’s Latin America commission, and the UN food agency FAO published a 2025 report on people of African descent. It estimates that 35.9% of the Cuba population, about 4.0 million people in 2024, is of African descent.

In this count the group combines people who identify as Black with those who identify as mulatto or mestizo, meaning mixed. The remaining 64% is not counted as Afro-descendant.

The 2024 figure applies the shares from the 2012 census to the current population. The report advises caution with estimates built on censuses from the 2010s.

Article 42 of the 2019 Constitution bars discrimination for reasons of ethnic origin or skin color. In 2019 Cuba also created a National Program Against Racism and Racial Discrimination, which the same report cites as an affirmative policy.

Language and Religion

Spanish is the official language under Article 2 of the 2019 Constitution. The US Census Bureau counts people of Cuban origin as part of the Hispanic population.

Article 15 declares Cuba a secular state, with religious institutions separate from the State and equal in rights and duties. It also guarantees religious freedom and says that different beliefs enjoy equal consideration.

Emigration and the Cuban Diaspora

Net migration was minus 22,244 in 2025 in the World Bank series, after minus 22,356 in 2024. The series shows a net loss in every year from 2020 to 2025.

That figure is a model estimate and a rough guide to scale, not an exact count of departures. It means about 22,000 more people leave each year than arrive.

A large Cuban community lives in the United States. The 2024 American Community Survey, a Census Bureau household sample, counts 2,948,426 people of Cuban origin (margin of error 46,657).

Florida holds 1,800,279 of them, about 61% of the national total. Miami-Dade County, which includes Miami, has 1,015,446.

Cuban-born residents number 1,688,798, about 57% of the total. The rest were born outside Cuba, including the US-born children of Cuban families.

In Florida, 1,185,378 residents were born in Cuba, and 717,451 of them live in Miami-Dade County. Together, people of Cuban origin in the United States equal about 27% of the island’s population.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a US prediction exchange where people bet real money, lists a market called “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by…?”. At 7:31 a.m. ET on 31 October 2026, its 31 December 2026 contract was priced at 11.5%.

That contract has traded only about US$5,200, so a few bets can move it. The whole market has traded about US$376,000.

A broader market, “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by…?”, has traded about US$2.3 million. Its 31 December contract stood at 8.5%, and these prices are bets, not forecasts by officials.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

A shrinking, aging Cuba population means fewer workers for each retiree on the island. That adds pressure on pensions, health care and the supply of labor.

For US readers, the main link is Florida. It holds 1.8 million people of Cuban origin, including more than 1 million in Miami-Dade County.

US sanctions rules on Cuba change over time, so check the current Treasury and Commerce rules before sending money or goods. We cover the policy side in our guide to foreign powers and investors in Cuba.

For who holds power on the island, see our Cuba politics explainer and our guide to Cuba’s economy. Related coverage includes our reports on Panama’s transit visa for Cubans and Uruguay’s residency route for asylum seekers.

What Is Not Known

The ethnic shares for 2024 are projections from the 2012 census, not a new count. Any change since 2012 in how Cubans describe themselves is not captured.

World Bank figures for births, deaths and migration are modeled estimates. They show the direction of change but not the exact number of people who left in a given year.

The sources used here carry no recent data on religion, or on income and housing by skin color. For the island’s wider story see our Cuba hub.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many people live in Cuba?

The World Bank, using UN estimates, counts 10,937,203 people in 2025. That is 239,151 fewer than the 11,176,354 counted in 2020.

Is the Cuba population shrinking?

Yes. The World Bank series shows a fall in every year from 2020 to 2025, including 0.39% in 2025. Deaths exceed births and more people leave than arrive.

What are the main ethnic groups in Cuba?

About 36% are Black or of mixed African descent, roughly 4.0 million people in 2024 by a UN estimate. The remaining 64% are not counted as Afro-descendant.

What language do Cubans speak?

Spanish is the official language under Article 2 of the 2019 Constitution. Article 15 makes the state secular and guarantees religious freedom.

How many Cuban Americans are there?

The 2024 American Community Survey counts 2,948,426 people of Cuban origin in the United States. Florida has 1,800,279 of them, and Miami-Dade County alone has 1,015,446.

How old is the Cuba population?

In 2025, 17.0% of Cubans were 65 or older and 15.0% were under 15. Life expectancy at birth was 78.3 years in 2024, and women had 1.45 children on average.

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators for Cuba (population, age, fertility, migration), 8 October 2026; FAO and ECLAC, People of African descent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025; Constitution of Cuba, 2019 (full text), 2019; US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, tables B03001 and B05006, 2025.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief