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Africa Prediction Markets: Live Odds
What traders with real money at stake expect for elections, central banks, currencies and political events across Africa, from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated every 30 minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
How to read it: a price of 85% means traders put money on an 85% chance. Prices are bets, not polls. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC; Polymarket runs an international platform and, since late 2025, a CFTC-approved US exchange. We do not link to betting sites and give no tips.
Elections
Morocco · Polymarket
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
US$171,444 traded
Our coverage: Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party Leads Election as Turnout Falls
Nigeria · Polymarket
Nigerian Presidential Election Winner
US$128,820 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Mali · Polymarket
Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by …?
US$61,392 traded
Morocco · Polymarket
Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)
US$33,842 traded · 3 more outcomes
Our coverage: Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party Leads Election as Turnout Falls
Nigeria · Polymarket
Kaduna, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$24,382 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Adamawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$21,382 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Delta, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$19,157 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Rivers, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$17,835 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Republic of the Congo · Polymarket
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?
US$17,703 traded
Show all 24 markets in Elections
Nigeria · Polymarket
Bauchi, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$17,629 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Akwa Ibom, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$16,688 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Nasarawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$16,619 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Katsina, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$16,071 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Gombe, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$15,866 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Benue, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$14,303 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Kebbi, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$14,111 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Kwara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$12,657 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Ethiopia · Polymarket
Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?
US$12,642 traded
Nigeria · Polymarket
Plateau, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$11,820 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Abia, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$11,809 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Oyo, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$11,441 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Ghana · Kalshi
Ghana parliamentary election winner?
14,993 contracts traded
Our coverage: Ghana’s President Takes His Call to End the US Cuba Embargo to the UN
Nigeria · Kalshi
Nigerian presidential election winner?
13,632 contracts traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Ghana · Kalshi
Ghana presidential election winner?
11,616 contracts traded · 2 more outcomes
Our coverage: Ghana’s President Takes His Call to End the US Cuba Embargo to the UN
Central Banks, Inflation and Growth
South Africa · Polymarket
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
US$69,433 traded · 6 more outcomes
Our coverage: Eswatini Lifts Interest Rate to 7% After South Africa
Politics, Leaders and Security
Sudan · Polymarket
Sudan civil war ceasefire by …?
US$119,469 traded
Our coverage: Sudan US Visa Row Keeps Burhan From the UN General Assembly
Ethiopia · Polymarket
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by …?
US$56,496 traded
Our coverage: Who Is Abiy Ahmed? Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, From Nobel Peace Prize to a New War
Egypt · Polymarket
Will Iran target Egypt by …?
US$31,501 traded
Our coverage: African Union Leaders Meet in Egypt on Trade and Water
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are exchanges where people buy and sell contracts that pay out if an event happens, such as a candidate winning an election or a central bank cutting rates. The price of a contract, between 0 and 100 cents, reads as the market's probability for that outcome.
Are prediction markets legal in the United States?
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket runs an international platform and, since late 2025, a CFTC-approved US exchange. Rules differ by country: Brazil, for example, has banned contracts on elections since May 2026.
Why does The Rio Times show prediction market odds?
Prices move within minutes of the news and reflect real money at stake, so they add a fast, independent signal to polls and official results. We report them as data, next to our own reporting, and we do not link to betting sites or give tips.
How often is this page updated?
The board reads every active Latin America and Africa market on Polymarket and Kalshi every 30 minutes. Only markets with real trading are shown: at least US$10,000 on Polymarket or 10,000 contracts on Kalshi.
Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data. Prices are implied probabilities from trading, not polls or forecasts by The Rio Times.