Venezuela-US tensions, 23 October to 30 April: the date and times, what is at stake, live prediction-market odds and every update as it happens.
Venezuela and the US explained: who runs the country after Maduro's capture, sanctions and oil, the New York case, the election gap and live odds.
Read the full story →Prediction markets · Venezuela-US tensions
Implied chances from traders’ prices. Prices are bets, not polls.
Who leads Venezuela in practice at the end of 2026
Polymarket: US$418,000 traded.
Who leads Venezuela in practice at the end of 2026
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 37,342 contracts traded.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado enters Venezuela
Polymarket: US$6.7 million traded.
A presidential election date is set by 31 December
Polymarket: US$644,000 traded.
US invasion of Venezuela by 31 December
Polymarket: US$14.2 million traded.
Which companies sign a Venezuelan oil agreement
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): 3,953 contracts traded.
As of Friday, 23 October, 6:27 p.m. ET, updated every 20 minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.