The 2026 US Midterms and the Race for Congress
Americans elect a new Congress on Tuesday 3 November, and this page gathers our explainers, the live odds and every Rio Times report on the vote in one place.
Key Facts
- —The vote Tuesday 3 November 2026; polls close between 6 p.m. and 1 a.m. ET.
- —Prediction markets House: Democrats 92%; Senate: Democrats 65% (Polymarket, 21 October, 8:09 a.m. ET)
- —Today Republicans hold 218 House seats, Democrats 214; Republicans lead the Senate 53 to 47.
- —On the ballot All 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governors.
- —What it means for you Congress controls the aid, trade laws and ambassadors that shape Latin America and Africa.
The United States holds its midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November 2026, choosing every member of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators. Republicans control both chambers today, while polls and prediction markets favour Democrats to win the House and betting markets also lean their way in the Senate.
This dossier gathers our explainers, the live odds and every Rio Times report on the vote in one place. Start with our guide to the 2026 US midterm elections and our list of poll closing times for results night, then follow the latest developments below.
Prediction markets · US midterms, 3 November 2026
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who wins the House of Representatives
Polymarket: US$19.2 million traded. All 435 seats are on the ballot, and 218 make a majority.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): Democrats 90.7% · Republicans 9.2% (63,081,832 contracts traded, each paying US$1 if right).
Who wins the Senate
Polymarket: US$7.5 million traded. 35 of the 100 seats are on the ballot; Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 because the vice president breaks ties.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC): Democrats 66% · Republicans 36% (16,325,557 contracts traded, each paying US$1 if right).
Who controls Congress after the vote
Polymarket: US$27.6 million traded. A law needs both chambers, so a split Congress can block the other side.
As of 21 October, 8:09 a.m. ET (13:09 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
In Plain English
- Midterms: the national vote held halfway through a president’s four-year term; the president is not on the ballot.
- House of Representatives: 435 members elected every two years; 218 seats make a majority.
- Senate: 100 members, two per state, elected for six years; it confirms judges and ambassadors.
- Balance of power: which party controls each chamber, and so whose bills get a vote.
- Prediction markets: platforms where traders bet on outcomes; prices work as live probabilities, not polls.
- Latino Voters Favor Democrats 51% to 24%
Pew surveyed 774 Hispanic registered voters from 28 September to 4 October: 51% back Democrats for the House, 24% Republicans and 18% are unsure.
- Midterm Odds and the Limits of Trump's Power
The midterm odds favour Democrats in both chambers. Here is what a Democratic Congress could stop and what Trump could still do on tariffs, sanctions and war.
Our dossier on the US midterm elections of 3 November 2026 follows the race for Congress, the prediction markets and what the result means for Latin America and Africa. The explainers come first, then the story by theme and our newest reports.
Start Here
The Story by Theme
The Race for Congress
Who is ahead for the House and the Senate, the key races, the polls and the odds.
Trade, Tariffs and the Americas
Tariffs on Brazil, Mexico and Canada, the USMCA review and what Congress can change.
Latest on the US Midterms
- What Are the 2026 US Midterms and Who Is Ahead?21 Oct
- Canada Counter Tariffs on US Goods Explained15 Oct
- Canada US Auto Tariffs Explained for 202612 Oct
- Canada’s Exports to US Jump 8.1% Before Tariffs7 Oct
- USMCA Review Ends Without Renewal as Washington Starts 2036 Expiry Countdown4 Sep
- USMCA Review Leaves the Trade Pact in Limbo as the 2036 Expiry Clock Starts31 Aug
Key Dates Before and After the Vote
- Sunday 1 November: US clocks go back one hour, so on election night Eastern Time (ET) is five hours behind London and Lisbon.
- Tuesday 3 November: election day; polls close between 6 p.m. ET and 1 a.m. ET on 4 November.
- Wednesday 18 November: Alaska tabulates its ranked-choice votes.
- Tuesday 1 December: Georgia runoffs for races where no candidate won more than half the vote.
- Friday 11 December: federal funding runs out unless Congress passes a new law.
- Saturday 12 December: Louisiana runoffs for House races without a majority winner.
- Sunday 3 January 2027, noon ET: the new Congress takes office.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in the 2026 midterms?
Democrats lead national polls and prediction markets for the House, and the betting markets also favour them, more narrowly, for the Senate. The live card on this page shows the latest Polymarket and Kalshi prices, updated every 20 minutes.
When do the polls close on 3 November?
The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET in eastern Indiana and Kentucky, and the last at 1 a.m. ET on 4 November in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Most states close between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
When does the new Congress take office?
The new Congress begins its term at noon on 3 January 2027. Until then the current Republican majorities stay in charge.
Why do the US midterms matter outside the United States?
Congress controls foreign aid, writes trade law and confirms ambassadors, so its majority shapes US policy towards Latin America and Africa. The president still sets most tariffs, sanctions and deportation rules on his own.