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Latin America and Africa Prediction Markets: Live Odds
What traders with real money at stake expect for elections, central banks, currencies and political events across Latin America and Africa, from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated every 30 minutes.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
How to read it: a price of 85% means traders put money on an 85% chance. Prices are bets, not polls. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC; Polymarket runs an international platform and, since late 2025, a CFTC-approved US exchange. We do not link to betting sites and give no tips.
Biggest Moves in 24 Hours
Brazil · Kalshi
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
7 or more cuts 69% ▲ +27 pts
Brazil · Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro 84.2% ▲ +22.3 pts
Elections
Brazil · Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election
US$172.4 million traded
Our coverage: Brazil Runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula
Argentina · Polymarket
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
US$789,384 traded · 12 more outcomes
Our coverage: Argentina’s Milei Cheers Flávio’s Brazil Election Lead
Venezuela · Polymarket
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by …?
US$636,213 traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Peru · Polymarket
Lima Mayoral Election Winner
US$486,242 traded · 19 more outcomes
Our coverage: Peru Lima Mayor Race: López Aliaga Warns Election Judges
Cuba · Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by …?
US$374,571 traded
Mexico · Polymarket
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by …?
US$287,433 traded
Our coverage: President of Mexico in 2026, Government Explained
Argentina · Polymarket
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
US$167,481 traded
Our coverage: Argentina’s Milei Cheers Flávio’s Brazil Election Lead
Venezuela · Polymarket
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
US$115,202 traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Mexico · Polymarket
Mexico Legislative Election Winner
US$106,039 traded · 2 more outcomes
Our coverage: President of Mexico in 2026, Government Explained
Show all 37 markets in Elections
Mexico · Polymarket
Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?
US$85,282 traded · 2 more outcomes
Our coverage: President of Mexico in 2026, Government Explained
Brazil · Polymarket
Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?
US$39,765 traded
Our coverage: Brazil Runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula
Brazil · Polymarket
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by …?
US$35,329 traded
Our coverage: Brazil Runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula
Argentina · Kalshi
Argentina presidential election winner?
39,642 contracts traded · 3 more outcomes
Our coverage: Argentina’s Milei Cheers Flávio’s Brazil Election Lead
Morocco · Polymarket
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
US$171,444 traded
Our coverage: Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party Leads Election as Turnout Falls
Nigeria · Polymarket
Nigerian Presidential Election Winner
US$128,820 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Mali · Polymarket
Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by …?
US$61,392 traded
Morocco · Polymarket
Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)
US$33,842 traded · 3 more outcomes
Our coverage: Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party Leads Election as Turnout Falls
Nigeria · Polymarket
Kaduna, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$24,382 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Adamawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$21,382 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Delta, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$19,157 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Rivers, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$17,835 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Republic of the Congo · Polymarket
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?
US$17,703 traded
Nigeria · Polymarket
Bauchi, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$17,629 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Akwa Ibom, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$16,688 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Nasarawa, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$16,619 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Katsina, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$16,071 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Gombe, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$15,866 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Benue, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$14,303 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Kebbi, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$14,111 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Kwara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$12,657 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Ethiopia · Polymarket
Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?
US$12,642 traded
Nigeria · Polymarket
Plateau, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$11,820 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Abia, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$11,809 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Nigeria · Polymarket
Oyo, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
US$11,441 traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Ghana · Kalshi
Ghana parliamentary election winner?
14,993 contracts traded
Our coverage: Ghana’s President Takes His Call to End the US Cuba Embargo to the UN
Nigeria · Kalshi
Nigerian presidential election winner?
13,632 contracts traded
Our coverage: Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Challenger
Ghana · Kalshi
Ghana presidential election winner?
11,616 contracts traded · 2 more outcomes
Our coverage: Ghana’s President Takes His Call to End the US Cuba Embargo to the UN
Central Banks, Inflation and Growth
Mexico · Polymarket
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
US$76,450 traded · 4 more outcomes
Our coverage: Who Runs Mexico’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026
Argentina · Polymarket
Argentina Annual Inflation 2026
US$74,062 traded · 3 more outcomes
Our coverage: Who Runs Argentina’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026
Colombia · Kalshi
Colombia minimum wage growth minus inflation in 2027
123,152 contracts traded
Our coverage: Colombia Inflation Seen Rising to 6.33% in September, Analysts Say
Brazil · Kalshi
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
98,450 contracts traded
Mexico · Polymarket
Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US$42,890 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Who Runs Mexico’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026
Brazil · Polymarket
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
US$40,862 traded · 1 more outcomes
Mexico · Polymarket
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
US$36,671 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Who Runs Mexico’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026
Colombia · Polymarket
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October
US$31,899 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Colombia Inflation Seen Rising to 6.33% in September, Analysts Say
Argentina · Polymarket
Argentina Monthly Inflation - September
US$24,034 traded · 2 more outcomes
Our coverage: Who Runs Argentina’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026
Show all 12 markets in Central Banks, Inflation and Growth
Brazil · Polymarket
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
US$17,838 traded
Brazil · Kalshi
How high will Brazil inflation get this year?
19,046 contracts traded · 6 more outcomes
South Africa · Polymarket
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
US$69,433 traded · 6 more outcomes
Our coverage: Eswatini Lifts Interest Rate to 7% After South Africa
Currencies, Trade and Markets
Argentina · Polymarket
Will Argentina dollarize by …?
US$49,533 traded
Our coverage: Argentina Getting Pricey in Dollars, Dal Poggetto Says
Argentina · Polymarket
Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)
US$22,207 traded · 2 more outcomes
Our coverage: Argentina Getting Pricey in Dollars, Dal Poggetto Says
Argentina · Polymarket
Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?
US$11,606 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Argentina Getting Pricey in Dollars, Dal Poggetto Says
Politics, Leaders and Security
Venezuela · Polymarket
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
US$98.1 million traded · 12 more outcomes
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Venezuela · Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by …?
US$14.2 million traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Cuba · Polymarket
US military action against Cuba by …?
US$7.6 million traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Venezuela · Polymarket
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by …?
US$6.5 million traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Mexico · Polymarket
US strike on Mexico by …?
US$3.5 million traded
Our coverage: Mexico’s Sonora Exports Hit a Record US$8.5 Billion in the Second Quarter
Cuba · Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
US$3.4 million traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Venezuela · Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by …?
US$2.7 million traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Cuba · Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by …?
US$2.2 million traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Colombia · Polymarket
US strike on Colombia by …?
US$2.2 million traded
Our coverage: Colombia Holds Gasoline at US$4.87 a Gallon in October
Show all 36 markets in Politics, Leaders and Security
Cuba · Polymarket
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
US$1.8 million traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Venezuela · Polymarket
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by …?
US$1.4 million traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Venezuela · Polymarket
Maduro Prison Time?
US$904,053 traded · 1 more outcomes
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Cuba · Polymarket
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by …?
US$824,680 traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Venezuela · Polymarket
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by …?
US$656,459 traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Cuba · Polymarket
US x Cuba economic deal by …?
US$442,308 traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Venezuela · Polymarket
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
US$408,195 traded · 12 more outcomes
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Venezuela · Polymarket
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
US$396,762 traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Panama · Kalshi
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
607,647 contracts traded
Our coverage: Panama Activates US$8.2 Million El Niño Farmer Plan
Cuba · Polymarket
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
US$264,527 traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Venezuela · Polymarket
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
US$179,766 traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Panama · Polymarket
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
US$177,510 traded
Our coverage: Panama Activates US$8.2 Million El Niño Farmer Plan
Colombia · Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
US$150,361 traded
Our coverage: Colombia Holds Gasoline at US$4.87 a Gallon in October
Venezuela · Polymarket
Maduro guilty of all counts?
US$133,173 traded
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Brazil · Polymarket
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
US$115,420 traded
Our coverage: Brazil’s Congress: Bolsonaro’s PL Wins 121 Chamber Seats
Colombia · Polymarket
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by …?
US$99,143 traded
Our coverage: Colombia Holds Gasoline at US$4.87 a Gallon in October
Cuba · Polymarket
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by …?
US$94,557 traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
El Salvador · Polymarket
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by …?
US$85,164 traded
Our coverage: El Salvador Jails Barrio 18 Leader for 45 Years
Cuba · Polymarket
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by …?
US$66,133 traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Cuba · Polymarket
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by …?
US$38,820 traded
Our coverage: Cuba Church Group Hands Out US Aid to 300 Families
Brazil · Polymarket
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by …?
US$29,729 traded
Our coverage: Brazil’s Congress: Bolsonaro’s PL Wins 121 Chamber Seats
Argentina · Polymarket
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
US$24,634 traded
Our coverage: Argentina’s Economy Loses Speed as Talk of US Financial Assistance Returns
Venezuela · Kalshi
Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
37,130 contracts traded · 4 more outcomes
Our coverage: Venezuela Election Date Must Be Set, Machado Says, Vowing to Return
Brazil · Kalshi
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
12,670 contracts traded
Our coverage: Brazil’s Congress: Bolsonaro’s PL Wins 121 Chamber Seats
Sudan · Polymarket
Sudan civil war ceasefire by …?
US$119,469 traded
Our coverage: Sudan US Visa Row Keeps Burhan From the UN General Assembly
Ethiopia · Polymarket
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by …?
US$56,496 traded
Our coverage: Who Is Abiy Ahmed? Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, From Nobel Peace Prize to a New War
Egypt · Polymarket
Will Iran target Egypt by …?
US$31,501 traded
Our coverage: African Union Leaders Meet in Egypt on Trade and Water
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are exchanges where people buy and sell contracts that pay out if an event happens, such as a candidate winning an election or a central bank cutting rates. The price of a contract, between 0 and 100 cents, reads as the market's probability for that outcome.
Are prediction markets legal in the United States?
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket runs an international platform and, since late 2025, a CFTC-approved US exchange. Rules differ by country: Brazil, for example, has banned contracts on elections since May 2026.
Why does The Rio Times show prediction market odds?
Prices move within minutes of the news and reflect real money at stake, so they add a fast, independent signal to polls and official results. We report them as data, next to our own reporting, and we do not link to betting sites or give tips.
How often is this page updated?
The board reads every active Latin America and Africa market on Polymarket and Kalshi every 30 minutes. Only markets with real trading are shown: at least US$10,000 on Polymarket or 10,000 contracts on Kalshi.
Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data. Prices are implied probabilities from trading, not polls or forecasts by The Rio Times.