Sudan War News: Fighting, Hunger and Peace Talks
Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have fought since April 2023; this page gathers our reporting on the war, the hunger crisis, the refugees and the search for peace.
Key Facts
- —The war Sudan’s army against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, since 15 April 2023.
- —The map The army holds Khartoum and the east; the RSF holds almost all of Darfur.
- —The toll 11.3 million people have fled their homes; 33.7 million need humanitarian aid.
- —This week Strikes on 18-19 October killed at least 80 in Al-Dibab and 153 near Abyei, officials and medics say.
- —Next date UN sanctions on Darfur expire on 11 December unless the Security Council renews them.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket: 8% chance of a ceasefire by 31 December 2026 (21 October, 10:19 a.m. ET)
Start with our explainer on what is happening in Sudan and who is fighting, then our guides to Sudan’s hunger crisis and how to help and where Sudan’s refugees have gone. For the wider region, read Sudan’s neighbours explained, our newcomer’s guide to Sudan and the Horn of Africa dossier.
The live odds and the latest developments below update themselves. Our explainers are rewritten whenever a battle, a famine finding or a peace step changes the picture.
Prediction markets · Sudan’s war
The implied chance of a ceasefire, from traders’ prices on Polymarket.
Official ceasefire in Sudan's war by...
Polymarket: US$120,000 traded on this question, US$15,000 of it on the nearest deadline. It counts only a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt to the fighting between the army and the RSF; humanitarian pauses do not count.
Earlier deadlines of 31 December 2025, 31 March 2026 and 30 June 2026 passed without a ceasefire.
As of 21 October, 10:19 a.m. ET (15:19 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
In Plain English
- The army (SAF) The Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
- RSF The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
- Darfur and Kordofan Sudan’s western and central regions, where most of the fighting now takes place.
- Abyei A border area claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan.
- IPC The UN-backed scale that grades hunger, up to famine.
- Sudan Drone Strike Kills 100+ in Kordofan
Relatives and local groups say a Sudan drone strike on Al-Dabab in West Kordofan killed 100 to 150 civilians on Sunday 18 October. The army has not commented.
- Abyei Market Drone Attack Kills 73
Local officials say drone strikes on Amiet Market in disputed Abyei killed 73 people and injured 19 on Monday 19 October 2026.
- At Least 10 Die in West Darfur Drone Strike
A drone strike killed at least 10 displaced civilians harvesting crops in West Darfur, near Chad, on 17 October 2026; the RSF is blamed.
- Sudan's Burhan Writes to Trump on 15 October
Sudan's army chief Burhan writes to Trump, pledging support for US-sponsored peace efforts, while a humanitarian truce stays out of reach.
- Sudan US Visa Row Keeps Burhan From the UN General Assembly
The Sudan US visa row has kept Abdel Fattah al-Burhan from the UN General Assembly, with Washington silent and the United Nations concerned.
Our dossier on Sudan follows the war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, the hunger crisis and the refugees, and the search for peace. The explainers come first, then the story by theme and our newest reports.
Start Here
The Story by Theme
The Fighting
Drone strikes, sieges and the front lines in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile.
Hunger, Aid and Refugees
Famine, the aid shortfall, disease and the millions who fled.
Gold, Money and the War Economy
Gold exports, the falling pound, fuel and the trade that funds the war.
Peace Talks, Sanctions and Outside Powers
The Quad and Quintet, US sanctions, the UAE, Egypt and the Security Council.
Latest on Sudan
- Sudan Import Duty Costs Rise 29.6%19 Oct
- Sudan Drone Strike Kills 100+ in Kordofan19 Oct
- Abyei Market Drone Attack Kills 7319 Oct
- At Least 10 Die in West Darfur Drone Strike18 Oct
- Trucks to Sudan Halt After 2 Drivers Killed16 Oct
- Sudan’s Burhan Writes to Trump on 15 October16 Oct
- South Sudan Clashes Kill at Least 16 People15 Oct
- Sudan Minerals Bill Sets 3 Tests for US Deal15 Oct
- South Sudan Convoy Attack Draws US Rebuke13 Oct
- Sudan Opens Jet Fuel Imports to All Firms on 12 October13 Oct
- Sudan Gold Miners Say Over 200 Died in Air Strikes12 Oct
- Sudan Miners Report Air Strikes Near Egypt, 20 Wounded11 Oct
- Sudan Drone Strike Kills at Least 30 at Blue Nile Camp10 Oct
- Sudanese Pound Slides to 8,800 a Dollar7 Oct
- Sudan Gold Exports Top US$2.29 Billion in 9 Months7 Oct
- Why Sudan Is Running Out of Fuel in 20265 Oct
- Sudan US Visa Row Keeps Burhan From the UN General Assembly24 Sep
- What Is Happening in Sudan in 2026, and Who Is Fighting19 Sep
- Sudan Aid Supplies Run Out at the End of This Month, the UN Migration Agency Says15 Sep
- Aid Cuts Are Closing Sudan’s Clinics, and MSF Warns the Health System Is Near Collapse9 Sep
Key Dates
- Monday, 26 October One year since the RSF took El Fasher.
- Friday, 11 December UN sanctions on Darfur expire unless the Security Council renews them.
- Thursday, 31 December Deadline of the Polymarket ceasefire market shown above.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the latest news from Sudan’s war?
A drone strike killed at least 80 people in Al-Dibab, West Kordofan, on 18 October, a medical source said, and Abyei officials say strikes near Abyei killed at least 153 the next day. Mediators met in Geneva on 21 October without either warring side.
What do prediction markets say about Sudan?
Polymarket traders rate an official ceasefire by 31 December 2026 as unlikely, at about 8% on 21 October. The card on this page shows the live price, which is a bet, not a poll.
How often is this page updated?
The odds refresh every 20 minutes and the latest developments as soon as we publish a checked story. Our explainers are rewritten whenever the facts change.
Sources: UNHCR (5 October 2026); OCHA (13 August 2026); Security Council Report (15 October 2026); UN News, Geneva talks (21 October 2026); Radio Tamazuj (19 October 2026); France 24 (19 October 2026); Polymarket public market data. As of 21 October 2026.