Raúl Castro in 2026, Cuba’s Government Explained

GUIDES · CUBA · POLITICS

Raúl Castro holds no office in Cuba, yet at 95 he remains the most powerful symbol of its one-party state and, since May 2026, a defendant in a US murder case. The island is run by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who also leads the Communist Party, while Washington steps up its pressure on Havana.

For American readers this shapes sanctions exposure, travel rules and the odds of any deal between the two governments. This guide explains who Raúl Castro is, what power he still has, who actually governs Cuba as of Wednesday 7 October 2026, and what is still unknown.

Who Raúl Castro Is

Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz was born on 3 June 1931 and is the younger brother of Fidel Castro, who led the 1959 revolution and died in 2016. In the guerrilla war of the 1950s he commanded the rebels’ Second Eastern Front.

He was Cuba’s president from 2008 to 2018, the Spanish news agency EFE notes. He then handed the leadership of the Communist Party to Díaz-Canel on Monday 19 April 2021, at the close of the party’s eighth congress, Cubadebate reported at the time.

His rank is General of the Army, and state media still call him “leader of the Cuban Revolution”. He led Cuba during the brief thaw with the Obama administration, which brought President Barack Obama to Havana in March 2016.

What Power He Still Holds

On paper, none. Cuba’s 2019 Constitution makes the Communist Party “the superior driving force of the society and the State”, and Raúl Castro no longer sits at its head. In practice, the leadership still treats him as its senior figure, and the state news site Cubadebate calls him the revolution’s “historic leader”.

His public appearances are now rare, which feeds rumours. He missed the main ceremony for the anniversary of the Moncada barracks attack on 26 July, the regime’s most important political date, for the first time in decades, the Spanish daily El Mundo reported. After a week of reports abroad that he was gravely ill, he appeared on Saturday 5 September at a ceremony for the 65th anniversary of the Personal Security Directorate, the service that guards Cuba’s leaders.

State news site Cubadebate reported that a letter from him was read there by the interior minister, General Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas. In it he paid tribute to the 32 Cubans killed in Venezuela on 3 January 2026 during the US operation that captured Nicolás Maduro.

Beside him was his grandson and bodyguard, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, whom EFE described as a go-between in Havana’s contacts with Washington. Both governments have acknowledged contacts but have given no details, the Spanish daily El Mundo noted.

The other legacy of the Castro era is the military’s place in the economy. GAESA (Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A.), the armed forces’ business conglomerate, heads the US State Department’s Cuba Restricted List of military-controlled companies, which also names hotels in Havana and the beach resorts. Americans are generally barred from direct financial dealings with them.

The US Murder Indictment

On 20 May 2026 the Justice Department unsealed a superseding indictment in federal court in the Southern District of Florida against Raúl Castro and five co-defendants. It concerns the shootdown on 24 February 1996 of two aircraft of Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami group that flew over the Florida Straits searching for Cuban migrants in distress.

Four men died: Carlos Costa, Armando Alejandre Jr., Mario de la Peña and Pablo Morales. The charges are conspiracy to kill US nationals, two counts of destruction of aircraft and four counts of murder. The murder and conspiracy counts carry a maximum of death or life in prison.

The case was announced by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, FBI Director Kash Patel and US Attorney Jason A. Reding Quiñones. The department notes that an indictment is merely an allegation and that all defendants are presumed innocent.

Havana rejects the case. On Friday 22 May, two days after the indictment was unsealed, President Díaz-Canel led a mass rally at Havana’s Anti-Imperialist Tribune to reject it, Cubadebate reported. A speaker there closed with the words “Raúl es Raúl”.

Who Governs Cuba Now

• Miguel Díaz-Canel is president of the Republic and first secretary of the Communist Party. The National Assembly elects the president for five years, and the constitution allows two consecutive terms.
• Manuel Marrero Cruz is prime minister and a member of the party’s Political Bureau, its top decision-making body. He leads the Council of Ministers, the cabinet.
• The Communist Party of Cuba is the only legal party. The constitution describes it as Marxist-Leninist and “Fidelista”. Its leader, the first secretary, is chosen by the Central Committee.
• The National Assembly of People’s Power is the single-chamber parliament. It names the prime minister and the cabinet on the president’s proposal.
• The Interior Ministry, which runs the police and security services, is led by General Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, who read Raúl Castro’s letter at the September ceremony.

Under pressure, the government has launched a broad economic opening: 176 “economic and social transformations”. On Friday 2 October, in a podcast hosted by Díaz-Canel, Marrero said 160 of them now had implementation plans backed by 197 new legal rules, Cubadebate reported.

Marrero said more than 3,600 small and medium private firms were approved in three months, bringing the total to 16,100, alongside 448 non-state cooperatives and over 385,000 self-employed workers. Marrero insisted the changes are meant to strengthen Cuban socialism, not replace it.

Washington’s Pressure Campaign

The State Department lists Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, which restricts US aid, arms exports and many financial dealings. President Donald Trump has added a series of measures in 2026:

• Thursday 29 January. Executive Order 14380 declared a national emergency over Cuba and set up tariffs on countries that sell oil to the island. Those duties were ended on 20 February under Executive Order 14389, but the emergency stays in force.
• Friday 1 May. Executive Order 14404 allows sanctions on any foreign person operating in Cuba’s energy, defence, metals and mining, financial services or security sectors, on Cuban officials and on their adult family members.
• Wednesday 30 September. The Treasury issued rules putting the May order into effect. It also banned indirect financial dealings with entities on the Cuba Restricted List and ended general permission for group people-to-people travel and professional meetings in Cuba.
• At sea. The US Coast Guard has confirmed that it stops vessels carrying fuel to Cuba, including the container ship Grace, intercepted in early September and taken to Mexico, the trade publication The Maritime Executive reported on Friday 2 October.

The two governments are talking, but not negotiating, in Havana’s account. On Monday 5 October Cuba’s chargé d’affaires in Washington, Lianys Torres Rivera, said there are “channels of communication” but no formal negotiations, and that Cuba will not negotiate changes to its political system, teleSUR reported.

What It Means for You

Travellers. Americans can no longer rely on the general licence for group people-to-people trips or professional meetings, which Treasury removed on 30 September. Anyone planning a trip should check the current OFAC rules before booking.

Companies and investors. Since the May order, a foreign company working in Cuba’s energy, mining, finance or security sectors can itself be sanctioned. The Cuba Restricted List names hotels and companies tied to GAESA and other military groups, so checking who ultimately owns a counterparty matters more than ever.

Cuban Americans. The Raúl Castro case is being heard in South Florida, home of Brothers to the Rescue. It has no practical effect unless he leaves Cuba or is handed over, which Havana shows no sign of doing.

What Prediction Markets Say

Bets on Polymarket give only a 3.75% chance that Raúl Castro is in US custody by 31 December 2026, as of 1:22 a.m. ET on Wednesday 7 October. About US$825,000 has been traded across that question’s dates.

Traders price a 9.5% chance that Díaz-Canel is out as Cuba’s leader by 31 December, down 7 points in a week, on about US$732,000 traded. A separate contract gives a 10.5% chance that the “Cuban regime falls” in 2026. These are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The Cuban government has not commented officially on the rumours about Raúl Castro’s health, so each absence fuels new speculation. How much he still decides, as opposed to blesses, is not known from outside the leadership.

It is not known whether Washington will try to bring him before the Florida court, or what role his grandson plays in the contacts between the two governments. Who, if anyone, would inherit his role as the leadership’s senior figure is not known. Whether the reforms will ease blackouts and shortages is also unknown.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Raúl Castro still president of Cuba?

No. Raúl Castro was president from 2008 to 2018 and handed the Communist Party leadership to Miguel Díaz-Canel on 19 April 2021. He holds no office, but official media still call him leader of the Cuban Revolution.

Who runs Cuba in 2026?

President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who is also first secretary of the Communist Party, the only legal party. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz runs the government day to day.

Why did the United States indict Raúl Castro?

On 20 May 2026 the Justice Department unsealed charges of murder, conspiracy to kill US nationals and destruction of aircraft over the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue planes, which killed four men. He is presumed innocent, and Havana rejects the case.

How old is Raúl Castro?

Raúl Castro was born on 3 June 1931, so he is 95. His most recent public appearance reported by state media was on 5 September 2026, at a ceremony in Havana after rumours about his health.

Can Americans still travel to Cuba?

Travel is still possible under specific licences, but on 30 September 2026 the Treasury removed general permission for group people-to-people trips and professional meetings. Travellers should check current OFAC rules before booking.

Sources: US Department of Justice, superseding indictment unsealed, 20 May 2026; US Attorney’s Office, Southern District of Florida, 20 May 2026; Cubadebate, Havana rally after the indictment, 22 May 2026; The Maritime Executive, Coast Guard fuel interdictions, 2 October 2026; Cubadebate, Díaz-Canel elected first secretary, 19 April 2021; Constitution of Cuba, 2019 (English text, Constitute Project); Cubadebate, Personal Security Directorate anniversary, 5 September 2026; EFE, Raúl Castro reappears, 6 September 2026; El Mundo, Raúl Castro at a military ceremony, 6 September 2026; Cubadebate, Díaz-Canel and Marrero on the transformations, 2 October 2026; US State Department, State Sponsors of Terrorism; US State Department, Cuba Restricted List; Executive Order 14380, 29 January 2026; Executive Order 14389, 20 February 2026; Executive Order 14404, 1 May 2026; OFAC, Cuba Sanctions Regulations, 30 September 2026; OFAC, amended Cuban Assets Control Regulations, 30 September 2026; teleSUR, Cuba’s chargé d’affaires on contacts with Washington, 6 October 2026. Prediction-market prices from Polymarket, 7 October 2026, 1:22 a.m. ET. All accessed 7 October 2026.