CUBA · US POLICY
Key Facts
- The country Cuba, a one-party communist state 90 miles from Florida.
- Power Index Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
- What happened Trump predicted change in Cuba’s government within about two and a half years.
- What he said Cuba’s government is “not going to last much longer” and Cuba is “a failed country.”
- The deadline He said it would “work out definitely within his two and a half years.”
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives an 8.0% chance that Miguel Díaz-Canel is out as Cuba’s leader by 31 December 2026 (1 November, 4:23 a.m. ET).
- The catch It is a prediction, not a policy announcement; no plan or date was given.
President Donald Trump predicts a Cuba change within two and a half years, saying the government is “not going to last much longer.” He said it in a video interview recorded in Florida and published on Saturday 31 October 2026.
For US readers a Cuba change matters because it shapes Florida politics, migration and fuel shipments. No plan, date or military step came with the words.
What Trump Said About a Cuba Change
A conservative online host asked how likely it was that the Castro family would still hold power over the next two years. Trump answered that Cuba is not going to last much longer and called it “a failed country.”
He added that the United States will “get people back there very soon” and told the host to look at Venezuela. He did not say who those people are or how a Cuba change would come.
Why Trump Points to Venezuela and Iran
In January 2026, US forces captured Nicolás Maduro, then Venezuela’s president, in a military raid. Trump pointed to that operation again when asked about Cuba.
Trump said the US war with Iran is going well and that Cuba ranks behind it on his list. He put it this way: “We’re going to finish off one, and then we’re going to maybe take a look at the other.”
Rubio and the Pressure on Havana
Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, America’s top diplomat, is looking at Cuba “extremely closely” because his parents were from Cuba. He said it will “work out definitely within his two and a half years.”
On Friday 23 October, Rubio posted on X that Cubans seeking change should join “a discreet partnership with the CIA,” the US spy agency. Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, mocked the call as public recruitment for the CIA.
A US oil blockade on the island since early 2026 has deepened fuel shortages and blackouts. Sanctions and legal pressure are the other tools Washington is using against Havana.
The Legal Front Against Raúl Castro
The US Department of Justice unveiled a federal indictment of Raúl Castro, Cuba’s former president, in May 2026. It covers the 1996 shootdown of two unarmed civilian planes that killed four people.
Florida’s attorney general, James Uthmeier, announced a separate state arrest warrant for Castro on Monday 19 October 2026. Our report on the Florida warrant for Raúl Castro explains the case.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a platform where people bet real money on future events, prices Miguel Díaz-Canel leaving office as Cuba’s president by 31 December 2026 at 8.0%. About US$784,000 has traded on that market.
A separate Polymarket market gives an 8.5% chance of US military action against Cuba by 31 December 2026, with about US$5.5 million traded. These are bets, not polls, and they do not measure what Trump will decide.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Travelers and investors with Cuba exposure should read the words as continued US pressure, not an imminent Cuba change. Sanctions, the oil blockade and the legal cases against Castro remain the tools in play.
Florida, home to a large Cuban-American community, would feel the politics and migration effects of any Cuba change first. For background on the island and its people, see our explainer on Cuba’s population and ethnic groups.
What Is Not Known
It is not known who Trump means by getting “people back there,” or whether he has a plan beyond sanctions and pressure. Nothing in the interview says how or when a Cuba change would take place.
Nobody has said what role the military would play, and no military step has been announced. Trump has predicted Cuba’s fall several times in 2026, and none of those forecasts has come true so far.
More: Cuba news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Trump say about Cuba’s government?
Trump said Cuba’s government is not going to last much longer and called Cuba a failed country. He also said the issue would work out within two and a half years.
Is the United States planning military action in Cuba?
Trump gave no plan or date, and no military step was announced. He compared Cuba to Venezuela, where US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January.
Who is Marco Rubio and what is his role on Cuba?
Rubio is the US Secretary of State, the president’s top diplomat, and his parents were from Cuba. Trump said Rubio is watching the issue extremely closely.
Who runs Cuba today?
Miguel Díaz-Canel is Cuba’s president, and the Communist Party is the only legal party. Raúl Castro, the former president, is wanted by US authorities.
Why does the Cuba prediction matter to Americans?
US policy toward Cuba affects Florida politics, Cuban migration, sanctions and fuel shipments to the island. A change of government in Havana would reshape all four.
Sources: President Donald Trump, video interview recorded in Florida, remarks on Cuba, Venezuela and Iran, 31 October 2026; Secretary of State Marco Rubio, public statement on X on Cuba and the CIA, 23 October 2026; US Department of Justice, federal indictment of Raúl Castro, May 2026; Florida Attorney General’s Office, announcement of the arrest warrant for Raúl Castro, 19 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Cuba and the United States
- What Is Going On Between Cuba and the United States?
- What Is Going On Between Cuba and the United States?
- Can Americans Still Travel to Cuba in 2026?
- Who Runs Cuba in 2026? Raúl Castro and the US Murder Charge