France in Turmoil
Published Thursday, Nov. 5, 11:59 a.m. ET (5:59 p.m. Paris) · Source: Elabe, Odoxa, Polymarket
On the day France’s unions filled the streets, its president hit a new low in the polls. Only about one French person in eight now trusts Emmanuel Macron to solve the country’s main problems.
Just 13% of French respondents trust President Emmanuel Macron, according to the November barometer from Elabe, a French polling firm, published on Thursday, Nov. 5. Elabe calls it the lowest confidence rating the survey has ever measured, below even the record low of François Hollande, the former Socialist president.
The result lands on a day of national strikes, part of our France protests coverage. Our guide to whether France’s government could collapse explains what is at stake.
Key Facts
- The number. 13% trust Macron, down 4 points in a month and 11 points since August.
- The record. It is below Hollande’s 14% in November 2016 and Macron’s own 14% low in October 2025.
- The prime minister. Sébastien Lecornu, who runs the government, is at 17%, his lowest rating.
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, a prediction market, gives Marine Le Pen, the National Rally’s leader, about 42% to win the next presidency (11:55 a.m. ET, Nov. 5).
This story is part of our coverage of the why France is in crisis. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
Elabe asks people each month how much they trust the president to deal with the country’s main problems. This month, 13% said yes and 82% said no, the worst result since the series began.
Even His Own Voters Are Leaving
The slide is steady: 24% in August, 17% in October and 13% now. It has come as unions and students protest over prices and the government fights over its budget.
Distrust stands at 82%, including 60% who say they have no trust at all. A year ago, in October 2025, the figures were 82% and 59%.
Among people who backed Macron in the first round of the 2022 election, trust fell 7 points to 36%. Among his second-round voters, it fell 6 points to 23%.
Among retirees the rating is 12%, down 6 points. Among 18-to-24-year-olds the rating is 18%, down 14 points in two months.
The Prime Minister Is Slipping Too
Lecornu is trusted by 17% of respondents, down 2 points in a month and 9 points since August. Among Macron’s prime ministers, only former prime minister François Bayrou has scored lower, at 12% in September 2025.
His rating has fallen as the autumn protests have grown. Marine Le Pen, who leads the National Rally, France’s main conservative-nationalist party, scores 35% in Elabe’s ranking of political figures, and Jordan Bardella, the party’s president, is at 33%, his lowest since April 2024.
A Second Poll Points the Same Way
A separate poll by Odoxa, another French firm, found that 83% of French people call Macron a bad president and 16% a good one. Odoxa questioned 1,005 adults online on Oct. 21 and 22.
The two surveys ask different questions, so their numbers cannot be compared directly. Both, however, show the lowest marks of his presidency.
The next test is Monday, Nov. 9, when Lecornu hosts unions and employers at Matignon. If the talks fail, more strikes would likely deepen the slide.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, priced Marine Le Pen at about 42% to win France’s next presidential election on Nov. 5 at 11:55 a.m. ET, with about US$166 million traded. Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister, was at 11.5%. The next vote is due in 2027, so these prices move with the news.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A weak president means a weak government, and a weak government finds it harder to pass a budget. That is the main thing French bond and share investors in the United States will watch in the coming weeks.
The poll does not change travel plans, but the strikes may. Check rail and airline notices before visiting.
What Is Not Known
Elabe’s page does not state the fieldwork dates or sample size. We have found no reaction yet from the Élysée, the president’s office, or from Matignon, the prime minister’s office.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many French people trust Macron, according to Elabe?
Elabe’s barometer published on Nov. 5 puts trust in Macron at 13%. That is the lowest the barometer has recorded, below Hollande’s 14% in November 2016.
How does the Elabe result compare with the Odoxa poll?
Odoxa found 83% call Macron a bad president, its highest for him and just below Hollande’s 84% record. The two polls ask different questions, so the numbers are not comparable.
When is France’s next presidential election?
The next presidential election is due in 2027. Macron cannot run again after two terms.
Sources: Elabe political observatory, November 2026, Odoxa barometer, Polymarket. Related: France 2027 election odds, France 2027 poll tracker.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
France in Turmoil
- Why France Is in Crisis, and How Macron Lost His Grip
- Why Is France Protesting? Riots, Curfews and the 2027 Race
- Is It Safe to Travel to France Right Now? Curfews, Strikes
- Who Will Win France’s 2027 Election? Polls and Odds