France in Turmoil
Published Thursday, Nov. 12, 9:39 a.m. ET (3:39 p.m. Paris) · Source: Cluster17, Polymarket
The woman who runs the euro’s central bank polls level with a former prime minister in a new test of France’s 2027 race. Marine Le Pen of the National Rally still leads.
Christine Lagarde heads the European Central Bank (ECB), which she will leave in February, yet French voters would back her about as often as a former prime minister. Cluster17, a French polling firm, tested her name for the first time and found her at 14% in round one, level with Édouard Philippe, who scored 13.5% in a separate lineup.
The survey, published Thursday, Nov. 12, keeps Jean-Luc Mélenchon in second place at 20% to 20.5%, behind Marine Le Pen. Our France 2027 election guide and poll tracker follow the wider field.
Key Facts
- What happened. A Cluster17 poll puts hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 20% to 20.5% for France’s 2027 presidential election.
- The numbers. Marine Le Pen leads with 30.5% to 31%. The survey ran on Nov. 9 and 10.
- The twist. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, was tested for the first time and polls 14%.
- Prediction markets. Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, give Mélenchon a 54.5% chance of reaching the runoff (9:39 a.m. ET, Nov. 12).
This story is part of our coverage of the why France is in crisis. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
France elects its president in two rounds, and the top two candidates from round one meet in a runoff. This poll tests imagined lineups, so it shows who looks strong today, not who will run.
The Hard Left Holds Second Place
Cluster17 questioned voters on Nov. 9 and 10 and tested four lineups, three with 11 candidates and one with 18. Le Pen, of the conservative National Rally party, takes 30.5% to 31% in the 11-candidate lineups and 27% in the 18-candidate one.
Mélenchon, who leads the hard-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) movement, gets 20% to 20.5%, or 19% in the wide field. Cluster17 says he beats the strongest centrist by 6.5 to 9.5 points.
He keeps 91% of the voters who backed his movement in the 2024 European election. He also holds 44% of voters aged 18 to 34.
Why Lagarde’s 14% Matters
Cluster17 tested Lagarde, Philippe and Gabriel Attal in 11-candidate lineups that were otherwise identical. Philippe is a former prime minister and the mayor of Le Havre, and Attal, another former prime minister, scores 11%.
None of the three threatens Mélenchon’s place in the runoff, Cluster17 says. Attal wins 29% of the voters who backed President Emmanuel Macron in 2022, against 40% for Philippe and 37% for Lagarde.
More than four in ten voters who chose Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in 2024 scatter whichever name is tested. They drift mainly to David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes (20% to 23%), and also to Raphaël Glucksmann, co-president of the centre-left Place Publique party (11% to 14%).
A Crowded Centre Cancels Itself Out
In the 18-candidate lineup, four names tie at 8%: Glucksmann, Philippe, Lagarde and Lisnard. Each sits 11 points short of Mélenchon’s runoff place.
Philippe, Lagarde and Attal together total 18%, Cluster17 notes, yet the sum helps none of them.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, priced Le Pen at 90.5% to reach the runoff and Mélenchon at 54.5% (9:39 a.m. ET, Nov. 12). In Polymarket’s market on who wins the presidency, Le Pen trades at 46.1%, Lisnard at 16.2%, Mélenchon at 13.5%, Philippe at 7.5% and Lagarde at 7.2%.
These prices are bets, not polls, and Lisnard’s 16.2% sits well above his 10% in Cluster17’s 11-candidate lineups.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A Le Pen versus Mélenchon runoff would pit the conservative right against the hard left and shut out the centre. Euro and French-bond investors, and US companies with French operations, would have to weigh that pairing.
Lagarde’s name matters to markets because the ECB sets interest rates for the euro area. The ECB said on Oct. 29 that she will leave on Feb. 7, nine months early, and she told a news conference she wants more freedom of expression.
The poll does not say she is running.
What Is Not Known
Cluster17’s published summary gives no sample size or margin of error, so the precision of these numbers cannot be judged. The lineups are tests, not declared fields, and the poll does not say that Lagarde, Philippe or Attal will run.
Whether 20% is a first for Mélenchon in any poll is not established. In 2022 he won 21.95% in the first round, so the survey puts him near his last result.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the new French presidential poll?
Marine Le Pen of the National Rally leads with 30.5% to 31% in the 11-candidate lineups. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second with 20% to 20.5%.
Is Christine Lagarde running for president of France?
The poll does not say so. Cluster17 only tested her name, and she said on Oct. 29 that she will leave the ECB on Feb. 7.
Sources: Cluster17, presidential poll of Nov. 9 and 10, 2026; Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
France in Turmoil
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