France in Turmoil
Published Monday, Nov. 9, 11:10 a.m. ET (5:10 p.m. Paris) · Source: Toluna Harris Interactive, Polymarket
A new poll gives Marine Le Pen the lead in every matchup it tested for France’s 2027 presidential race. The real contest is for second place, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon is pulling away from Édouard Philippe.
Months before France votes, the race looks like a fight for second place. A poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, a polling firm, for French broadcasters M6 and RTL, released Monday, Nov. 9, puts Marine Le Pen of the conservative National Rally first in round one with 34% to 36% of the vote.
She also wins every runoff the poll tested, from 58% against former prime minister Édouard Philippe to 68% against the radical-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Our France 2027 election guide has the wider field.
Key Facts
- First round. Le Pen 34% to 36%, Mélenchon 18% to 19%, Philippe 11% to 14%, depending on the lineup.
- Runoffs. Le Pen beats Mélenchon 68% to 32%, centre-left Glucksmann 60% to 40% and Philippe 58% to 42%.
- The sample. 2,101 voters answered online on Nov. 3 to 5, with a margin of error of 1.4 to 3.1 points.
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, a prediction platform, gives Le Pen a 45.4% chance of winning the presidency (10:57 a.m. ET, Nov. 9).
This story is part of our coverage of the why France is in crisis. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
France elects its president in two rounds, and if nobody wins outright, the top two meet in a runoff. This poll asks voters how they would choose in several imagined lineups, so it shows who looks strong, not who will run.
Why the Fight Is for Second Place
In every lineup tested, Le Pen finishes first in round one, 15 to 18 points ahead of the runner-up. Mélenchon, who leads the radical-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) movement, comes second with 18% to 19%.
Philippe, a former prime minister and mayor of Le Havre, scores 11% to 14%, five to seven points behind Mélenchon. In the lineup that also included Dominique de Villepin, a former prime minister, and David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, he fell to 12% from 15% in the previous wave of Oct. 19 to 21, while Mélenchon rose to 19% from 17%.
Raphaël Glucksmann, a centre-left member of the European Parliament, takes 11% to 13%. Gabriel Attal, a former prime minister who leads President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, gets 6% to 10%, and Bruno Retailleau, head of the conservative Les Républicains, 5% to 10%.
What the Runoff Numbers Say
Le Pen’s lead is widest against Mélenchon, 68% to 32%, and narrowest against Philippe, 58% to 42%. Against Glucksmann she leads 60% to 40%, a point better than the 59% to 41% of the previous wave.
How the Poll Was Done
The online survey ran from Nov. 3 to 5, 2026, among 2,101 people on the electoral rolls, drawn from a sample of 2,436 French adults. Margins of error run from 1.4 to 3.1 points, and the pollster stresses that this is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Our France 2027 poll tracker follows the other pollsters.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, priced Le Pen at 45.4% to win the presidency at 10:57 a.m. ET on Nov. 9, with US$169 million traded. It gave Lisnard 14.8%, Mélenchon 13.5% and Philippe 8.5%.
A separate Polymarket market on who reaches the runoff, with US$545,000 traded, put Le Pen at 89.5% and Mélenchon at 51.5%. Lisnard stood at 17.6% and Philippe at 15.0%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
France is the euro zone’s second-largest economy, a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Its next president will shape policy toward Washington and Ukraine.
In this poll Mélenchon gains and Philippe slips. A lead this far out can still move.
What Is Not Known
The poll tests imagined lineups, so it cannot say which of these names will be on the ballot. It also cannot say whether Philippe’s slide is a trend or a dip.
The same barometer has been fielded about every two weeks since September. If the pattern holds, the next wave runs around Nov. 17 to 19 and will show whether the gap between Mélenchon and Philippe holds.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the new French presidential poll?
Marine Le Pen of the National Rally leads the first round with 34% to 36% and wins every runoff tested. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second with 18% to 19%.
Does the poll predict who will win in 2027?
No. The pollster says voting intentions show the balance of forces at one moment and cannot be read as a prediction. The poll also tests imagined lineups, not final fields.
Sources: Toluna Harris Interactive, presidential voting-intention barometer, wave 9; Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
France in Turmoil
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