France in Turmoil
Published Sunday, Nov. 15, 3:15 a.m. ET (9:15 a.m. Paris) · Source: Elabe poll, Polymarket
France faces a familiar picture with one new face. Marine Le Pen is far ahead, the hard left is gaining behind her, and an Olympic judo champion has joined the race.
Marine Le Pen of the conservative National Rally still leads the first round of the 2027 presidential election with 31% to 33%, depending on the lineup. Elabe, a French polling firm, ran the survey for broadcaster BFMTV and the weekly La Tribune Dimanche and published it on Saturday, Nov. 14.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the hard-left leader, keeps second place and keeps gaining. Our France 2027 election guide and poll tracker follow the wider field.
Key Facts
- What happened. Marine Le Pen leads the first round at 31% to 33%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second with at least 17%.
- The numbers. In a runoff Le Pen beats two rivals 55% to 45%, and beats Mélenchon 68.5% to 31.5%.
- The newcomer. Teddy Riner, a five-time Olympic judo champion, scores 4.5% in the one lineup that tested him.
- Prediction markets. Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, give Le Pen a 47.3% chance of winning the presidency (3:12 a.m. ET, Nov. 15).
This story is part of our coverage of the why France is in crisis. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
France elects its president in two rounds, and the top two candidates from round one meet in a runoff. This poll tests six imagined lineups, so it shows who looks strong today, not who will actually run.
Le Pen Holds a Firm Lead
Elabe polled 1,500 adults online on Nov. 12 and 13, including 1,391 registered voters. It tested six lineups of first-round candidates, and the margin of error runs from 1.1 to 3.5 points.
Le Pen’s numbers barely moved from Elabe’s Oct. 17 poll. In a runoff she would beat Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister and mayor of Le Havre, and Raphaël Glucksmann, the leader of the social-democratic Place Publique party, by 55% to 45% each.
The Hard Left Gains and the Centre Slips
Mélenchon leads the hard-left France Unbowed movement and gets at least 17%, or 18.5% if François Ruffin, a left-wing lawmaker, and Marine Tondelier, the Ecologists’ leader, stay out. Against Le Pen in a runoff he would lose 68.5% to 31.5%, a 37-point gap that is one point narrower than in October.
Philippe falls 1.5 points in a month to between 12% and 15%, and to 9.5% if five rivals stand against him. Glucksmann drops 2 to 2.5 points to between 10.5% and 14%.
Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister, finishes between fourth and seventh place, with 10% at best and 4% in the most crowded field. Bruno Retailleau, who heads the conservative Republicans party, polls 4% to 9% and always trails David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, who reaches 8% to 10.5%.
A Judo Champion Enters the Race
Teddy Riner, a five-time Olympic judo champion, announced his candidacy on Monday, Nov. 9. Elabe tested him in only one of its six lineups, the one with the most centre and right candidates, and there he scores 4.5%, ahead of Attal and Retailleau.
Éric Zemmour, a conservative commentator who confirmed this week that he is running again, polls 3% to 4.5%. That is up half a point to one point.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, an online market where users trade on real-world outcomes, prices Le Pen at 47.3% to win the presidency, ahead of Lisnard at 15.8% and Mélenchon at 13.5%. About US$175.7 million has been traded on that market, and a separate Polymarket market gives Le Pen 85.5% to win the first round (3:12 a.m. ET, Nov. 15).
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
France is the euro zone’s second-largest economy, so investors in French bonds and US companies with French operations watch who is likely to run its budget. A Cluster17 poll for Politico this week showed the same two names at the top.
Polls this early still shift as candidates enter and leave, so the order of the field matters more than any single number.
What Is Not Known
Which candidates will finally run is not settled, because the centre and the right have not picked a single nominee. Riner was tested in one lineup only, so his score in other fields is unknown.
The survey counts only people who say they plan to vote. It measures intentions today and is not a forecast of the result.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the latest poll for France’s 2027 presidential election?
Marine Le Pen of the National Rally leads with 31% to 33% of first-round voting intentions in the Elabe poll. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second with at least 17%.
How does Teddy Riner do in the poll?
Riner, a five-time Olympic judo champion, scores 4.5% in the one lineup in which Elabe tested him. That puts him ahead of Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau in that lineup.
Sources: Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, fieldwork Nov. 12 and 13, 2026; Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
France in Turmoil
- Why France Is in Crisis, and How Macron Lost His Grip
- Why Is France Protesting? Riots, Curfews and the 2027 Race
- Is It Safe to Travel to France Right Now? Curfews, Strikes
- Le Pen Leads France’s Election Polls at 36%