ETHIOPIA · IMF · ECONOMIC FORECASTING
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global lender to governments, plans to review with Ethiopian officials how far a new economic forecasting model has got and when it will be fully in use. The model was due to be finished in September 2026, and the review is reported to be part of talks due this month.
This matters to readers in the United States because each payment from the IMF’s US$3.4 billion loan programme for Ethiopia rests on the government’s numbers. Better forecasts make it easier to judge Ethiopia’s debt sustainability while it restructures its debts.
Key Facts
- The tool Ethiopia’s finance ministry is building the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model with IMF help.
- The target Completion was targeted for September 2026; whether that was met is not confirmed.
- The programme The IMF has paid out about US$2.647 billion of its US$3.4 billion Ethiopia loan.
- Next step IMF talks in November are reported to cover the model’s timetable.
What the New Model Is
Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance asked the IMF in October 2024 for help to upgrade how it forecasts growth, inflation and public finances. The plan is to replace the ministry’s older framework with the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM), a toolkit tailored to Ethiopia’s data and institutions.
A scoping mission in May 2025 reviewed current practice at the finance ministry, which works with the planning ministry and the National Bank of Ethiopia (the central bank). The roadmap foresaw about seven IMF advisory missions, roughly two to three months apart, as reported.
A separate IMF report, published on 16 July 2025, covered the central bank’s own forecasting system after a mission in Addis Ababa from 4 to 8 November 2024. It found that forecasting models and a dedicated team were in place, and it recommended more nowcasting models, which estimate the present from early data, plus a structural macro model and a structured forecasting process.
Why the Schedule Is in Question
The September 2026 target has passed, and we found no announcement that the model is complete. The IMF has not said publicly whether the model is finished.
Ethiopian coverage says the IMF will discuss the timeline for full implementation with the authorities, which is reported, not confirmed. The same coverage says data gaps remain, especially how often national accounts and production figures are published.
The plan is also to link the model to a debt dynamics tool, a calculator that tracks how debt grows under different assumptions. Debt sustainability is a central question for Ethiopia, so the link is the part investors are most likely to watch.
The Programme Behind the Talks
The IMF’s board completed the fifth review of Ethiopia’s four-year Extended Credit Facility, the Fund’s concessional loan programme, on 1 July 2026 and released about US$464 million. Total payouts reached about US$2.647 billion of a programme approved on 29 July 2024 and worth about US$3.4 billion.
The IMF projects average inflation of 11.7% in the 2025/26 fiscal year and 12.3% in 2026/27, with real growth of 7.8% and 8.2%. Our report on the review talks that slipped to November explains the timing.
What It Means for You
For lenders and bondholders, the model is a plumbing upgrade with real consequences. Debt-sustainability maths is only as good as the growth, inflation and revenue forecasts that go into it.
For readers following Ethiopia’s reforms, a delay would not stop the programme by itself. It would, however, leave the government with the older tools while it liberalises the birr, the national currency, and faces a heavy repayment calendar, as our note on the central bank’s rate hold shows.
What Is Not Known
It is not confirmed whether the model was finished in September 2026 or what the new date is. The date of the November talks, and an IMF board decision reported for early 2027, have not been confirmed by the Fund.
More coverage sits on our Ethiopia hub. For the wider economy, see the GDP rebasing explainer.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model?
It is a forecasting toolkit that Ethiopia’s finance ministry is building with IMF help. It is meant to show how growth, inflation, public finances and trade affect one another.
Why does the IMF care about Ethiopia’s forecasts?
Each review of Ethiopia’s IMF loan programme releases money only if targets are met. Those targets rest on the government’s own projections.
Was the model finished in September 2026?
That is not confirmed. September 2026 was the target, and the IMF is reported to be reviewing the schedule.
How much has the IMF paid Ethiopia so far?
About US$2.647 billion of a programme worth about US$3.4 billion. That followed the fifth review on 1 July 2026.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, press release 26/235 on the fifth review of Ethiopia’s Extended Credit Facility, 1 July 2026 (imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/01/pr26235-ethiopia-imf-completes-5th-review-under-ecf-arrangement); International Monetary Fund, Technical Assistance Report 2025/070, Forecasting and Policy Analysis System scoping mission, 16 July 2025 (imf.org/en/publications/technical-assistance-reports/issues/2025/07/16/the-federal-democratic-republic-of-ethiopia-technical-assistance-report-forecasting-policy-568688). The model project details come from Ethiopian coverage and are marked as reported.
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