Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 23, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are poised for a critical session today, shaped by domestic and regional economic data alongside select global indicators amid ongoing fiscal and geopolitical pressures.
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) maintained the Selic rate at 15% following a 0.25 percentage point hike on June 18, 2025, to address inflation above the 3% target, the highest since 2006.
This tightens borrowing costs, potentially slowing sectors like retail and construction, while supporting the Brazilian real via carry trade interest.
With a 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected 2025 fiscal deficit of R$104 billion, markets remain highly sensitive to both domestic and global developments.
Today’s key domestic events include the BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, offering insights into monetary policy direction, and the FGV Consumer Confidence report, signaling consumer spending trends critical for retail and equity markets.
In Latin America, Mexico’s 1st Half-Month CPI and Core CPI will reflect regional inflation trends, influencing Brazil’s agribusiness exports.
Globally, key events include Japan’s BoJ Core CPI, signaling inflation in a major trading partner, and the German Ifo Business Climate Index, gauging industrial demand for Brazil’s metals.
Speeches from ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey, along with U.S. indicators like CB Consumer Confidence and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, will shape global trade and commodity sentiment.
These events are pivotal as the Ibovespa faces technical weakness, the real navigates dollar dynamics, and commodities respond to global trade tensions.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Shapes monetary policy expectations, critical for currency and equity markets.
- 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – FGV Consumer Confidence (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 86.7. Gauges consumer spending, impacting retail and domestic demand.
Mexico
- 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – 1st Half-Month Core CPI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 0.18%, previous 0.16%. Signals regional inflation, affecting Brazil’s agribusiness trade.
- 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – 1st Half-Month CPI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 0.12%, previous 0.09%. Reflects consumer price trends, influencing export demand.
Japan
- 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – BoJ Core CPI (YoY) (May): Actual 2.5%, consensus 2.5%, previous 2.4%. Signals inflation in a key market, impacting Brazil’s commodity exports.
South Africa
- 03:00 AM EST / 04:00 AM BRT – Leading Indicators (Apr): Actual 112.80%, consensus TBD, previous 113.16%. Reflects emerging market health, influencing commodity trade sentiment.
Eurozone
- 04:29 AM EST / 05:29 AM BRT – German Business Expectations (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 90.0, previous 88.9. Signals industrial outlook, impacting Brazil’s metal exports.
- 04:29 AM EST / 05:29 AM BRT – German Current Assessment (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 86.5, previous 86.1. Reflects economic conditions, affecting trade demand.
- 04:29 AM EST / 05:29 AM BRT – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 88.1, previous 87.5. Gauges business sentiment, critical for export markets.
- 09:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD. Shapes monetary policy, influencing Brazil’s commodity exports.
United Kingdom
- 04:29 AM EST / 05:29 AM BRT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: Actual TBD. Signals monetary policy, impacting agribusiness trade.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: Actual TBD. Reinforces policy signals, influencing commodity demand.
Canada
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 1.7%, previous 1.7%. Signals inflation trends, affecting Brazil’s agribusiness exports.
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -2.8%. Reflects industrial demand for Brazil’s metals.
United States
- 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – Current Account (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus -448.0B, previous -303.9B. Tracks trade balance, impacting Brazil’s exports.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – CB Consumer Confidence (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 99.4, previous 98.0. Gauges consumer spending, critical for Brazil’s exports.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Fed Chair Powell Testifies: Actual TBD. Shapes monetary policy, influencing commodity markets.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus -10, previous -9. Signals industrial demand for Brazil’s metals.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Bovespa index closed on June 23, 2025, at 136,550.50, down 0.41%, marking its fourth consecutive loss and the lowest close since June 10.
Petrobras drove the decline, with shares dropping over 3% after the company opted to hold domestic fuel prices steady despite rising global oil benchmarks, disappointing investors expecting margin gains.
Regulatory pressures, a Bank of America downgrade, and fears of government intervention in pricing fueled selling. Trading volumes hit R$12.7 billion ($2.3 billion), which is 23% above the 20-day average.
There was also a net foreign inflow of R$780 million. Market breadth remained negative, with Petrobras’ losses overshadowing other sectors.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks rallied on June 23, 2025, as oil prices fell amid hopes Iran would not disrupt global crude flows. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 6,025.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9% to 42,581.78, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.9% to 19,630.97.
The Russell 2000 rose 1.1% to 2,132.68. U.S. oil dropped over 7% to $68.51 per barrel, easing inflation concerns. Treasury yields fell, reflecting bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real rallied on June 23, 2025, with USDBRL falling below 5.50, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar amid geopolitical de-escalation and Fed rate cut hopes.
The 15% Selic rate supports carry trade but fiscal concerns and a 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio limit risk appetite. Today’s BCB Copom Meeting Minutes and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will guide currency sentiment, critical for export competitiveness.
Oil Prices
Oil prices fell sharply on June 23, 2025, with Brent crude at $73.33 per barrel after a ceasefire unwound war premiums.
This pressures Petrobras’ revenues, though Brazil’s oil exports remain resilient. Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will signal demand trends.
Gold Prices
Gold slipped on June 23, 2025, near $3,330 per troy ounce, as risk appetite rose and the dollar strengthened. Safe-haven demand supports Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s German Ifo Business Climate Index will influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver held steady on June 23, 2025, at $35.60 per ounce, with strong fundamentals offset by cautious technicals. This impacts Vale’s mining exports. Today’s German Ifo Business Climate Index will guide industrial metal demand.
Copper Prices
Copper prices were stable on June 23, 2025, at $4.66 per pound, supported by technical barriers despite surplus forecasts. This affects Vale’s revenues. Today’s German Ifo Business Climate Index will clarify industrial demand.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rallied on June 23, 2025, nearing $103,000, driven by a ceasefire easing global risk, though technicals remain cautious.
This supports Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will influence risk appetite.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices held near multi-month lows on June 23, 2025, at $94 per ton on the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index, due to oversupply and weak Chinese demand.
This challenges Vale, though technical support persists. Today’s German Ifo Business Climate Index will signal demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s agribusiness sector, contributing 27.4% to GDP in 2024, faces challenges in 2025 from the 15% Selic rate and global trade uncertainties. Inflation at 5.2% and fiscal strains with a R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio weigh on growth.
UBS upgraded Brazilian assets to “buy” on June 23, 2025, citing peaking interest rates and improving political clarity ahead of 2026 elections, boosting market sentiment.
Today’s BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Mexico’s CPI, and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will shape export demand and currency stability, critical for mining and agriculture.
Company Updates
Méliuz’s Bitcoin Investment: Méliuz invested R$157 million ($30 million) in Bitcoin on June 23, 2025, reinforcing its crypto strategy. This move supports Brazil’s fintech sector, though high interest rates pressure margins. Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will influence crypto sentiment.
Petrobras’ Pricing Strategy: Petrobras’ decision to hold domestic fuel prices steady despite rising global oil benchmarks led to a over 3% share drop on June 23, 2025.
Regulatory and political concerns, including a Bank of America downgrade, weigh on investor confidence. Today’s API Weekly Crude Oil Stock and Canada’s Manufacturing Sales will guide oil-related sentiment.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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