Iron Ore Prices Hold Near Multi-Month Lows as Market Awaits Clearer Chinese Demand Signals

Iron ore prices for 62% Fe fines delivered to China hovered at $94.55 per ton on the Singapore Exchange on June 24, 2025, according to official exchange data and TradingView charts.

The market has shown little movement in the past 24 hours, with prices fluctuating narrowly between $94.50 and $94.95 per ton. This range-bound behavior follows a persistent downtrend that has defined the market for several weeks.

The fundamentals remain weak. Chinese steel demand, the key driver for iron ore, continues to stagnate. The latest PMI data indicates ongoing contraction in the steel sector.

Real estate investment, a major source of steel consumption, has declined sharply, and new construction starts remain subdued. These figures reflect the continued weakness in China’s property sector, which is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore.

Steel mills in China have shifted to just-in-time purchasing strategies, reducing their inventories from 35 days of consumption in early March to 28 days now. This change has limited bulk buying and contributed to the subdued price environment.

On the supply side, conditions remain stable. Major exporters from Australia and Brazil have maintained consistent shipment volumes.

Australian Pilbara shipments continue at approximately 16.5 million tons per week, and there have been no significant disruptions reported from Brazil.

Combined inventories at Chinese ports have reached 138 million metric tons, surpassing the 135 million ton threshold that typically triggers aggressive restocking.

However, the high inventory levels have failed to stimulate significant buying interest, as mills remain cautious amid uncertain demand prospects.

Technical analysis of the 4-hour and daily charts confirms the bearish sentiment. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains below all major moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-period lines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49.01, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly negative but converging, suggesting a loss of bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands show that prices are hugging the lower band, hinting at potential for a technical bounce but offering no clear reversal signal. The Ichimoku Cloud analysis also places the price well below the cloud, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The daily chart presents a similar picture. The price is entrenched in a downtrend and remains below all major moving averages. The RSI is at 34.87, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains deeply negative but shows signs of convergence.

Bollinger Bands again indicate the price is at the lower end, and the Ichimoku Cloud provides thick overhead resistance. Market participants continue to take a cautious stance. Trading volumes remain muted, and there has been no notable shift in ETF flows or open interest.

The market awaits clearer signals from Chinese policymakers or a material change in demand before making decisive moves. Until then, prices are likely to remain under pressure, with downside risk if key support levels break.

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