Thirteen Tickets, and Only Two of Them Matter
Politics · Brazil
Key Facts
- —The field Thirteen tickets registered with the TSE for the first round on 4 October.
- —The front-runners President Lula seeks a fourth term; Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads the right.
- —The polls Pollsters disagree: PoderData had Flávio ahead on 3 September, Datafolha had Lula ahead the same day. Both gaps sit inside the margin of error.
- —The catch Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist, jumped from 2% to 10% in a week; no poll ties a market rally to him.
- —The date that decides If nobody tops 50% on 4 October, the top two meet again on 25 October.
Brazilian elections are never really about thirteen candidates. They are about two — and about which of the other eleven can hurt them on the way to the runoff.
The incumbent: Lula’s fourth try
Lula turns 81 just 23 days after the election, on 27 October. He runs on an economy that avoided recession, with unemployment near a record-low 5.6% in 2025.
His social programs stay popular in the poor north-east, helped by a bigger Bolsa Família welfare payment this election year.
His problem is arithmetic. A Quaest poll on 2 September put his approval at 45%, disapproval at 48% — the pattern all year.
The left’s vote share has been falling in cities that decide runoffs.
The challenger: Flávio, not Jair
Jair Bolsonaro, convicted by the Supreme Court and now serving a 27-year sentence, is barred from running until 2030. His eldest son inherited the movement instead.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro, has run a campaign heavy on public security and light on his father’s style.
The strategy works, with caveats. A PoderData poll on 3 September put him narrowly ahead of Lula, 45% to 44%, within the margin of error.
Datafolha, published that same day, still had Lula ahead, 46% to 44%. Quaest, a day earlier, also had Lula ahead, 42% to 41% — and found 60% doubt Flávio is the right’s best candidate.
He also carries baggage. The Intercept Brasil reported in May 2026 that Flávio asked jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro for US$24 million (about R$134 million).
He said it was for a film about his father.
His campaign calls the story a smear, and no charge has been filed against him over it. But it has not gone away.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.40%
185,935.60
+0.40%
65,163.64
-0.42%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,033,262
-0.81%
2,532.83
-0.06%
59,978.22
+0.01%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,935.60 | +0.40% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
The wild card: Augusto Cury
Cury, a bestselling psychiatrist with no governing record, jumped from 2% to roughly 10% support in a single week of late-summer polling. The clearest market reaction that week actually followed Flávio’s numbers, not Cury’s.
His ceiling is unknown and his ground operation is thin.
But in a two-round system, a strong third candidate does not need to win.
He only needs to decide who faces Lula.
The other ten, and why they matter
The rest of the field splits between ideological candidacies building party brands and regional figures trading votes for future ministries. Their first-round percentages become endorsements in the runoff.
Watch the television debate audiences rather than the minor candidates’ speeches. In 2022, the endorsements of eliminated candidates moved the final result by several points.
What to watch in the final month
Three signals matter more than any single poll. Does Flávio’s lead survive a second and third survey?
Are Cury’s voters firm or parked? Do Senate fights before the election give anyone a weapon?
These fights include the 6×1 workweek and the critical minerals bill.
Brazil has not re-elected a president comfortably since 2006. Nothing in this campaign suggests the pattern breaks on 4 October.
The issues that actually move votes
Security leads voter concern in the cities, which is why both front-runners open with it. The economy follows — specifically food prices and jobs, not GDP.
The debate over the 6×1 workweek shows how fast a labor issue can become a campaign tool. Flávio‘s Senate fight to stop it targeted his business side.
Corruption ranks lower than in past cycles. This helps both front-runners.
Lula’s past convictions were annulled on procedural grounds. Flávio’s Banco Master issue has not become a charge.
The money and the machine
Brazilian campaigns use public money. Corporate donations are banned.
The contest is about free TV time. It is given by coalition size.
It uses ground machines of allied governors.
That design helps Lula’s wide alliance. It hurts late starters like Cury.
His rise must become structure in weeks. Or it disappears on election day.
The calendar and the debates
Free TV time started on 28 August and runs until 1 October.
Analysts say late debates can shift a close race by a few points. In a race this tight, even a small shift could decide it.
Between the rounds comes the endorsement market: eliminated candidates trade their voters for ministries. In 2022 that market decided the presidency; with thirteen tickets, it will be crowded again.
What happens on 5 October
The morning after the first round, the two survivors reprice everything. Running mates become assets, gaffes become ammunition.
The centre becomes the only territory that matters.
If polls are right, Lula and Flávio meet on 25 October. Brazil gets three more weeks of the tightest race since 2014.
If a wild card crashes the runoff, the map changes overnight.
The undecided third
Between the locked-in bases sits the electorate that decides Brazilian elections: voters who dislike both finalists, disproportionately urban, educated and young. They broke late in 2018 and 2022, and the polls’ deadlocked runoff is really a portrait of their indecision.
Cury’s surge is their shopping. Whether they stay with him or drift back to the big two decides the final month.
The states that decide it
Brazilian elections are won in four places. São Paulo is the economic engine that swings.
Minas Gerais has backed every winner since redemocratisation.
The north-east builds Lula’s margins, while the south is the right’s anchor.
São Paulo’s metro area holds a third of Brazil’s voters, including its satellite cities. Both campaigns will spend the last two weeks there.
Flávio’s security message targets commuters. Lula’s jobs record is aimed at factory workers.
Minas is the psychic prize. No modern president has won without it.
Its governors often sense the winner early.
Its endorsements between rounds will set the runoff’s opening price.
The map explains the poll paradox: Lula can lose the national conversation and still lead, because his geography is more efficient.
Flávio’s first-ever lead is real, but it is not yet a map.
How the markets are reading the race
The clearest market signal of the campaign so far tracked Flávio, not Cury. On 2 September, after Quaest showed him closing on Lula, the real gained 0.9% and the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, rallied.
One trader told local media the market favours “the candidacy that is not Lula’s.” Cury’s own surge has not been tied to any specific market move.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s business flank explains his own positioning. His Senate fight against the 6×1 workweek targeted that audience.
It reminded them that he, not Lula, will defend the employer’s calendar.
Lula’s market problem is math, not scandal. His approval sits below 50%, so he must promise spending to rally his base.
Every promise is priced by bond markets that watched his fiscal fights all year.
None of this settles anything. Markets have misread elections before.
A campaign where 60% of voters doubt the right picked its best candidate is not priced on confidence. It is priced on the absence of alternatives.
Watch the currency on the mornings after polls. It has moved with the horse race all year, and it does not wait for the TSE.
Connected Coverage
Flávio Bolsonaro Tops Lula in Brazil Poll for First Time
Brazil Election Polls Tighten, Augusto Cury Surges and Markets Cheer
Brazil Quaest Poll: 60% Say Flávio Is Not the Right’s Best
The Big Picture
Brazil Elections 2026 — the complete coverage hub
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times