Copper Holds Firm as Surplus Grows and Technicals Signal Cautious Momentum

Copper prices edged higher in the past 24 hours, with official market data showing the benchmark contract at $4.88 per pound on June 24, 2025.

This marks a modest 0.06% rise from the previous session, according to official CFD trading data. The London Metal Exchange (LME) cash settlement price stood at $10,035 per metric ton, with inventories continuing to tighten, falling to 95,875 tons.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange mirrored this resilience, as Chinese demand remained steady despite broader macroeconomic concerns. Supply fundamentals remain the primary story.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) confirmed a projected global surplus of 289,000 tons for 2025, more than doubling last year’s figure. This surplus stems from a 2.3% increase in global mine production, now expected to reach 23.5 million tons.

Major expansions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mongolia, along with new projects in Russia and smaller operations across Africa and Asia, have contributed to this output growth.

Refined copper production is also set to rise by nearly 3% this year, driven largely by Chinese smelter expansions. Despite the surplus, demand factors continue to support prices.

China’s Made in China 2025 initiative is forecast to increase copper demand by 232,000 tons this year. The push for industrial upgrades, smart factories, and green manufacturing has raised copper intensity in sectors such as power equipment and transportation.

However, the ICSG notes that global refined copper usage growth has slowed to 2.4% this year, with a further deceleration to 1.8% expected in 2026. Tariff uncertainty in the United States and sluggish European demand have tempered broader consumption growth.

Copper Market Balances Bullish Momentum with Supply Concerns

Technical analysis of the four-hour and daily copper charts reveals a market at a crossroads. The four-hour chart shows prices holding above key moving averages, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.7, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, and price action sits above the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, suggesting short-term upside potential.

Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting increased volatility, while prices approach the upper band, signaling possible resistance ahead. The daily chart confirms a longer-term uptrend but highlights consolidation below the $5.01 resistance level.

The RSI stands at 58, suggesting room for further gains, while the MACD remains in positive territory. Support levels are visible near $4.87 and $4.78, with resistance at $4.95 and $5.01. Volume remains robust, confirming that recent price moves have institutional backing.

In summary, copper’s price action reflects a market balancing rising supply with persistent demand from China’s industrial policies and the global energy transition.

Technical signals point to cautious optimism, but the looming surplus and slower consumption growth continue to cap the upside.

Market participants remain focused on inventory trends, macroeconomic signals, and policy developments that could tip the balance in the weeks ahead.

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