Oil Prices Plunge as Ceasefire Unwinds War Premium and Technical Breakdown Accelerates Sell-Off
Official data and market charts confirm that oil prices suffered their sharpest drop in months on June 24, 2025, as a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel erased the war premium that had driven the recent rally.
Brent crude fell from highs near $81 to lows below $67, while WTI crude dropped from $75 to $63.5 within a single session. This move followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire, which eased concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.
It also triggered a wave of selling. The market’s reaction was swift and decisive. Trading volumes surged as traders unwound speculative positions built on geopolitical risk.
Brent crude settled at $66.10 per barrel, down 1.99% from the previous day, while WTI closed at $65.46, a drop of 4%. Both contracts erased the gains made during the recent conflict, returning to levels last seen in early June.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration had already forecast lower prices for the second half of 2025, citing rising global inventories and weak demand growth. The agency expects Brent to average $66 per barrel by year-end, with WTI projected at $62.33.
Technical analysis of the latest charts shows a clear breakdown in both Brent and WTI. On the four-hour chart, Brent broke below its 200-period moving average and pierced the lower Bollinger Band.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 27, signaling deeply oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator turned sharply negative, confirming strong downward momentum.
WTI’s technicals mirrored Brent’s, with RSI at 26 and a break below key support at $65. The daily chart for WTI shows a large red candle, with RSI falling from 65 to 45, and MACD momentum reversing hard to the downside.
Fundamentals reinforced the technical signals. The EIA reported that global oil production continues to outpace demand, with OPEC+ members ramping up output and non-OPEC producers adding barrels.
U.S. production reached 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, but demand growth remains sluggish, especially with weak economic data from China and persistent recession risks in developed markets.
Oil exchange-traded funds saw record outflows, as investors rotated out of energy and back into equities, reflecting a lack of confidence in sustained high prices.
The real story behind the numbers is that the oil market’s recent gains were built on temporary geopolitical fears rather than solid fundamentals.
When the threat of war faded, oversupply and weak demand quickly reasserted themselves. Unless new shocks emerge, oil prices may remain under pressure, with traders watching key support levels for signs of stabilization.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
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