Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 13, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are poised for a pivotal session today, driven by a series of domestic and international economic indicators that will shape investor confidence.
Key domestic releases, including Brazil’s Service Sector Growth (YoY) and (MoM) for April, will provide critical insights into the performance of the service sector, a significant contributor to Brazil’s GDP.
These metrics are essential for assessing domestic demand resilience and guiding investor sentiment, particularly with the Selic rate at 14.75% and public debt pressures constraining fiscal flexibility.
The data will also influence expectations around fiscal policy adjustments, which could impact equity markets and currency stability. Internationally, the Eurozone’s German CPI (YoY) for May and Industrial Production (MoM) for April will signal inflationary trends and industrial activity.
ECB’s Elderson’s speech will also provide insights into a key market for Brazilian exports. These indicators will affect demand for Brazilian commodities like iron ore and soybeans, as well as capital flows to emerging markets.
In the United States, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June will gauge consumer confidence, a critical driver of demand for Brazilian oil and agricultural exports.
Canada’s Capacity Utilization Rate for Q1 will provide insights into industrial activity in a regional trading partner, influencing commodity demand.
These events are critical as the Ibovespa consolidates after a three-day rally, the Brazilian real remains near its 2025 high, and commodity markets navigate volatility from geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties.
Today’s data will guide near-term market trends and investor sentiment amid fiscal challenges and evolving trade dynamics.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.9%. Tracks annual service sector performance, signaling domestic demand strength and economic momentum.
- 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.3%. Measures monthly service sector changes, influencing investor confidence and monetary policy outlooks.
Eurozone
- 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – German CPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 2.1%, previous 2.1%. Measures annual inflation trends, impacting ECB policy and demand for Brazilian exports.
- 04:00 AM EST / 05:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -1.5%, previous 2.6%. Signals manufacturing activity, influencing trade sentiment for Brazilian commodities.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – ECB’s Elderson Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides insights into ECB monetary policy, affecting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
United States
- 09:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 52.5, previous 52.2. Gauges consumer confidence, driving demand for Brazilian oil and agricultural goods.
Canada
- 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Capacity Utilization Rate (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus 79.6%, previous 79.8%. Reflects industrial resource use, influencing regional commodity demand.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On June 12, 2025, Brazil’s Ibovespa index closed at 137,799.74 points, up 0.49%, marking its third consecutive gain. Official B3 data confirm the advance, driven by strong performances from Petrobras and Embraer, though fiscal policy concerns and global cues tempered gains.
Investor optimism was fueled by expectations of extraordinary dividends from Petrobras and robust demand forecasts for Embraer’s aircraft, while debates over new real estate tax measures weighed on stocks like MRV Engenharia.
Trading volumes in the BOVA11 ETF remained steady at 534,668 units, reflecting sustained but cautious risk appetite. The index’s cumulative gain of 1.55% over three sessions marked its strongest streak since late May.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks closed higher on June 11, 2025, after a positive inflation update bolstered sentiment. The S&P 500 rose 45.71 points, or 0.9%, to 5,421.03, setting a new record high.
The Nasdaq composite climbed 264.89 points, or 1.5%, to 17,608.44, also surpassing its previous peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, slipping 35.21 points, or 0.1%, to 38,712.21.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies gained 32.75 points, or 1.6%, to 2,057.10. Treasury yields fell after a report showed slowing consumer price inflation in May, with the 10-year Treasury note yield dropping to 4.33%.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened on June 12, 2025, with USD/BRL closing at R$5.53, down 0.4%, near its 2025 high. The rally was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and positive domestic fiscal signals, including government support for Petrobras dividends.
Technical analysis shows USD/BRL testing support at 5.52, with resistance at 5.58. Today’s Service Sector Growth data and U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment may introduce volatility, with Brazil’s high interest rates sustaining carry trade interest.
Oil Prices
Oil prices surged on June 12, 2025, with Brent crude settling near $70 per barrel, driven by heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and tightening supply concerns.
This uptick supports Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, despite global demand uncertainties. Today’s U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Canada’s Capacity Utilization Rate will provide demand signals critical for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold surged to a one-month high on June 12, 2025, trading near $3,350 per ounce, fueled by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
This strength bolsters Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale, offering export stability. Today’s Eurozone German CPI and ECB’s Elderson’s speech may influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver held firm on June 12, 2025, trading near $35.50 per ounce, supported by a supply squeeze and macroeconomic uncertainty. This resilience aids Brazil’s mining exports, though industrial demand concerns persist.
Today’s Eurozone Industrial Production and U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment will guide industrial metal demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices stabilized on June 12, 2025, trading near $4.85 per pound, as markets balanced supply surplus fears against tariff-related uncertainties.
This steadiness supports Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s Eurozone Industrial Production and Canada’s Capacity Utilization Rate will clarify industrial demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin slumped on June 12, 2025, falling to $105,000, down 3.5%, as macroeconomic pressures and technical signals triggered a broader crypto decline.
This volatility challenges Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore slid to new lows on June 12, 2025, with the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index trading near $92 per ton, pressured by stalling Chinese demand and negative technical signals.
This decline impacts Vale’s revenues. Today’s Eurozone Industrial Production and U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment will provide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s industrial sector faces challenges in 2025, with April retail sales showing mixed signals due to rising consumer debt and job growth.
The Selic rate at 14.75% and public debt near 80% of GDP strain fiscal sustainability, while new tax proposals add uncertainty for real estate and financial sectors.
Today’s Service Sector Growth, U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Eurozone Industrial Production data will shape currency stability and export demand, critical for commodity-driven industries.
Company Updates
Petrobras’ Dividend Expectations: Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) shares rose 2.78% on June 12, 2025, to $12.40 on the NYSE, driven by government signals favoring extraordinary dividends to support fiscal targets.
Despite lawsuit risks, its focus on deepwater assets strengthens its outlook. Today’s U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment may influence energy sector sentiment.
Fleury’s Acquisition Strategy: Fleury expanded its regional reach with a R$39.5 million acquisition of Hemolab, enhancing its diagnostic services footprint.
This move supports Brazil’s healthcare sector growth, though fiscal uncertainties linger. Today’s Service Sector Growth data may guide healthcare sector sentiment.
Wilson Sons’ Sale and Delisting: Wilson Sons’ sale and delisting from B3, following MSC’s R$4.35 billion acquisition, reflect Brazil’s evolving business landscape.
The deal strengthens logistics capabilities, benefiting Brazil’s export sector. Today’s Eurozone Industrial Production and Canada’s Capacity Utilization Rate may influence logistics sentiment.
Top Brands’ Market Shifts: Brazil’s top brands, including Petrobras and Embraer, reveal shifting business power in 2025, with export-driven firms gaining prominence.
Retail and tech sectors face challenges from consumer debt and tax changes. Today’s Service Sector Growth and U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment will shape brand performance outlooks.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern part of the United States, including major cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami. It is UTC-5, meaning it is 5 hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is used during the standard time period, typically from early November to mid-March, but in this report, it is applied as requested for consistency. It is the most common U.S. time zone due to its association with key financial and political centers.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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