Alaska Count Will Settle Last Midterm Seat

The 2026 US midterm elections are settled except for one Senate seat. Alaska, where voters rank candidates in order of preference, runs its final count on 18 November.

Alaska Is the Last Seat Left

Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Wednesday, 18 November 2026, and it is the last major step in the midterm Senate map. In ranked-choice voting, voters rank candidates, and the last-placed candidate’s votes are redistributed to the voters’ next choices.

Mary Peltola, a Democrat, led Dan Sullivan, the Republican senator, by about 49.9% to 46.0% in first-choice votes with 97.4% of the expected vote counted. Her lead was 2,517 votes on 9 November and has since grown to several points.

Democrats Already Hold Senate Control

Democrats hold 55 Senate seats and Republicans 44, so Alaska cannot change which party controls the chamber. It can only change the size of the majority.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats hold 256 seats and Republicans 170, with nine races uncalled. A party needs 218 for a majority, so Democrats are already past that line.

These are unofficial counts from the latest tally we checked on 15 November, and states have not yet certified results. The new Congress convenes in January 2027.

Mississippi Was the Late Flip

Democrat Scott Colom defeated Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, and the race was called on Wednesday, 11 November, after absentee and affidavit (provisional) ballots were counted. Hyde-Smith conceded that evening.

Colom’s win left Alaska as the only Senate race still without a winner.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, the Alaska Senate final-round margin market priced a Peltola win by 3 to 6 points at 98% on 15 November, with US$77,215 traded. These are real-money bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

The result will fix the size of the Democratic Senate majority that confirms judges and shapes spending bills from January. A 55-seat majority is more comfortable than a bare 51.

Ipsos, a polling firm, found President Donald Trump’s approval at 32% in a poll fielded 6 to 9 November, with prices the main drag. Immigration was his best issue at 38%.

What Is Not Known

The time of the 18 November tabulation was not available to us. The final margin after redistribution is not known, and the Division of Elections has not yet certified any result.

Final House totals are also open, with nine races uncalled at the last count we checked.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will Alaska’s Senate race be decided?

Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Wednesday, 18 November 2026. Official certification follows later.

Who leads in the Alaska Senate race?

Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by about 49.9% to 46.0% in first-choice votes, with 97.4% of the expected vote counted.

Who controls the US Senate?

Democrats, with 55 seats to 44 for Republicans. Alaska is the only race still uncalled.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error