Iron Ore Slides to New Lows as China’s Demand Stalls and Technical Signals Remain Negative

Official Singapore Exchange data and TradingView chart analysis confirm that iron ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) futures traded at $95.30 per ton on June 13, 2025, down 0.21% over the last 24 hours.

The price has dropped below the $95.66 and $97.38 resistance levels, with the next support at $93.58. This move extends a persistent downtrend that began in late May and reflects the ongoing imbalance between robust supply and weak Chinese demand.

Charts show the daily price remains well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages. These moving averages now act as overhead resistance, confirming the market’s negative trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 35.27, approaching but not yet reaching oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, with both the MACD and signal lines below zero, which signals that bearish momentum continues.

Bollinger Bands have widened, and the price consistently trades at or below the lower band, indicating ongoing selling pressure. The four-hour chart confirms this setup, with the price capped by resistance at $95.37 and $95.48, and the RSI at 45.43, showing only a minor rebound in momentum.

Fundamental data highlight the pressure on prices. China’s iron ore port inventories remain elevated, reflecting a lack of restocking by steel mills.

Chinese steel producers continue to limit purchases as uncertainty over government policy and a weak property sector weigh on demand. Official figures show new construction starts and real estate investment remain well below year-ago levels.

Chinese iron ore imports are expected to hit record highs in 2025, driven by strategic stockpiling and increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, but this supply growth has not translated into stronger spot demand.

Macroeconomic factors further dampen sentiment. The US dollar index strengthened overnight, which puts additional pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like iron ore.

Broader commodity markets, including oil and base metals, also traded lower in the same period, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. No major supply disruptions have been reported from key exporters, leaving the market well supplied.

Volumes and open interest on the Singapore Exchange remain steady but show no signs of a reversal in positioning. ETF flows in iron ore remain minimal.

Trading activity suggests that most market participants expect further downside unless Chinese demand recovers or a supply shock emerges. The technical and fundamental picture both point to continued weakness.

The price action below all major moving averages, negative MACD, and low RSI confirm that sellers remain in control. With Chinese demand signals still muted and no fresh catalysts on the horizon, iron ore prices look set to remain under pressure in the near term.

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