Copper Market Holds Range as Supply Surplus and Tariff Fears Shape Trading

Copper prices edged lower in the last 24 hours, reflecting a market caught between growing supply and persistent uncertainty over tariffs.

Data from the London Metal Exchange show the cash price settled at $9,730 per metric ton on June 11, with inventories dropping to 119,450 tons, continuing a multi-week drawdown.

In the US, spot copper closed at $4.8215 per pound on June 12, down slightly from the previous session, while Indian MCX futures traded near 875.65 rupees per kilogram in morning action.

Charts from June 13 confirm a market in consolidation. On the daily chart, copper prices hover between $4.80 and $4.89 per pound, with the 50-day moving average acting as resistance and the 200-day average providing support near $4.52.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 51.56, signaling a neutral momentum. The MACD indicator remains flat, and Bollinger Bands show narrowing volatility, all pointing to a lack of conviction among traders.

The 4-hour chart reinforces this view, as copper trades just above key support at $4.76, with the RSI at 42.41 and MACD negative, suggesting mild short-term pressure but no decisive break.

Fundamentally, the International Copper Study Group forecasts a global surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025, more than double last year’s figure. This surplus comes as mine production grows, particularly from new and expanded projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, and Russia.

Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturing PMI for May improved to 49.5 but remains in contraction, indicating weak demand from the world’s largest copper consumer. US manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3, but new tariffs loom large over the market.

Citigroup expects a 25% US tariff on copper imports before the fourth quarter, prompting US buyers to stockpile metal and driving short-term price support.

However, the market expects this effect to fade once tariffs are in place, as demand could shift and arbitrage opportunities close. ETF flows indicate ongoing investor interest.

The United States Copper Index Fund has gained 30% year-to-date, and the Global X Copper Miners ETF is up 13% in 2025. However, open interest in Indian MCX copper futures fell by 2.75% overnight, hinting at some traders stepping back amid the uncertainty.

Downstream sentiment in China improved slightly as prices eased, but overall trading activity remains limited. With supply outpacing demand and macroeconomic signals mixed, copper prices look set to remain rangebound.

Technicals suggest the market will need a clear catalyst—either a policy shift or a significant supply disruption—to break out of its current consolidation.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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