Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 12, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are poised for a pivotal session today, driven by a series of domestic and international economic indicators that will shape investor confidence.
Key domestic releases, including Brazil’s Retail Sales (MoM) and (YoY) for April, will provide critical insights into consumer spending trends and economic resilience in a high-interest-rate environment.
These metrics are essential for guiding investor sentiment and the Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) monetary policy decisions, particularly with the Selic rate at 14.75% and public debt at 76.2% of GDP.
The data will also influence expectations around the IOF financial transaction tax debate, which could impact currency stability and equity market sentiment.
Internationally, the United Kingdom’s GDP (MoM) and Industrial Production (MoM) for April will signal economic growth and manufacturing health, affecting demand for Brazilian exports like agricultural goods and metals.
In the Eurozone, speeches by ECB’s Schnabel, De Guindos, and Elderson will provide insights into monetary policy direction, influencing trade flows for Brazilian commodities such as iron ore and soybeans.
In the United States, the Core PPI (YoY) for May and Initial Jobless Claims will gauge inflationary pressures and labor market strength, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports, including oil and agricultural goods.
These events are critical as the Ibovespa consolidates after a two-day rally, the Brazilian real remains resilient near its 2025 high, and commodity markets navigate volatility from global trade uncertainties and Middle East tensions.
Today’s data will guide near-term market trends and investor sentiment amid fiscal uncertainties and new tax proposals.
Brazil
- 07:00 AM EST – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.8%. Tracks monthly consumer spending, signaling domestic demand and economic resilience.
- 07:00 AM EST – Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -1.0%. Measures annual consumer spending trends, critical for assessing purchasing power and export competitiveness.
United Kingdom
- 01:00 AM EST – GDP (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -0.1%, previous 0.2%. Reflects monthly economic growth, impacting demand for Brazilian exports.
- 01:00 AM EST – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -0.4%, previous -0.7%. Signals manufacturing activity, influencing trade sentiment for Brazilian goods.
Eurozone
- 04:00 AM EST – ECB’s Schnabel Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides insights into ECB policy, impacting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
- 07:00 AM EST – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Signals monetary policy direction, influencing trade flows for Brazilian commodities.
- 09:15 AM EST – ECB’s Elderson Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Gauges ECB sentiment, affecting capital flows to emerging markets like Brazil.
United States
- 07:30 AM EST – Core PPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 3.0%, previous 3.1%. Tracks producer price inflation, influencing U.S. demand for Brazilian goods.
- 07:30 AM EST – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, consensus 241K, previous 247K. Gauges labor market health, affecting U.S. demand for Brazilian commodities.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On June 11, 2025, Brazil’s Ibovespa index closed at 137,128.04 points, gaining 0.51%, as Petrobras and financials drove the advance. Official B3 data confirm the move, which extended a two-day rally, even as fiscal uncertainty and global caution limited upside.
Petrobras (PETR4) surged after Brent crude gained over 4%, reflecting Middle East tensions, closing at 31.05 BRL with above-average volumes. Financials like Santander and Bradesco also rose, supported by stable Selic rates and resilient net interest margins.
However, exporters such as Gerdau and Metalúrgica Gerdau lagged, pressured by weaker U.S. sentiment and new trade policy concerns.
On the technical front, the 4-hour chart shows the Ibovespa at the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud but below the 50-period moving average, signaling a market at a crossroads with critical resistance ahead.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks saw their rally stall on June 11, 2025, after climbing within 2% of their all-time high. The S&P 500 fell 16.57 points, or 0.3%, to 6,022.24.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.10 points, or less than 0.1%, to 42,865.77, while the Nasdaq composite lost 99.11 points, or 0.5%, to 19,615.88. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 8.17 points, or 0.4%, to 2,148.23.
Treasury yields eased after a report showed inflation ticked up less than expected, raising hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. Markets showed muted reaction to the conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened on June 11, 2025, with USD/BRL closing at 5.54, down 0.3%, near its 2025 high. The rally was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar following softer U.S. inflation data and Brazil’s robust trade performance.
Technical analysis on the 4-hour chart shows USD/BRL testing support at 5.53, with resistance at 5.60. Today’s Retail Sales data and U.S. Core PPI may introduce volatility, with Brazil’s high real interest rates continuing to attract carry trade interest.
Oil Prices
Oil prices stalled on June 11, 2025, with Brent crude hitting resistance near $71.50 per barrel after a 4% rally driven by Middle East tensions. The pause reflects technical barriers and mixed U.S. inventory data.
This stability supports Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, despite global demand uncertainties. Today’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Core PPI will provide demand signals critical for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold advanced sharply on June 11, 2025, trading near $3,400 per ounce, fueled by softer U.S. inflation data and heightened geopolitical tensions. This strength supports Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s Eurozone ECB speeches and U.S. Core PPI may influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver held steady on June 11, 2025, trading near $35.50 per ounce, supported by a supply squeeze and bets on U.S. rate cuts.
This resilience bolsters Brazil’s mining exports, though momentum is sensitive to global signals. Today’s U.S. Core PPI and Eurozone ECB speeches will guide industrial metal demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices remained steady on June 11, 2025, trading near $4.85 per pound, as tightening global supply chains offset demand concerns.
This stability supports Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Eurozone ECB speeches will clarify industrial demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held above $109,000 on June 11, 2025, despite a minor correction, supported by technical strength and ETF inflows. This resilience bolsters Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. Core PPI and Initial Jobless Claims may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore slipped on June 11, 2025, with the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index trading near $94 per ton, pressured by rising supply and weak Chinese demand. This decline impacts Vale’s revenues. Today’s U.K. Industrial Production and U.S. Core PPI data will provide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s industrial sector faces significant challenges in 2025, with April data showing a broader slowdown, particularly in São Paulo, due to high Selic rates at 14.75% and cooling global demand.
Moody’s highlights Brazil’s economic strengths but warns of rising public debt at 76.2% of GDP and spending constraints, limiting fiscal flexibility. Today’s Retail Sales, U.S. Core PPI, and Eurozone ECB speeches will shape currency stability and export demand, critical for commodity-driven industries.
Company Updates
Braskem’s Control Battle: Petrobras and Novonor are locked in a dispute over Braskem’s control, with Petrobras pushing to maintain influence while investors seek strategic shifts.
The outcome will shape Brazil’s petrochemical sector, with fiscal and regulatory uncertainties weighing on sentiment. Today’s U.S. Core PPI may influence energy and chemical sector outlooks.
Petrobras’ Rally: Petrobras (PETR4) surged on June 11, 2025, closing at 31.05 BRL, driven by a 4% rise in Brent crude amid Middle East tensions. Despite fiscal uncertainties, its focus on deepwater assets supports long-term potential. Today’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Core PPI will guide energy sector sentiment.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern part of the United States, including major cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami. It is UTC-5, meaning it is 5 hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is used during the standard time period, typically from early November to mid-March, but in this report, it is applied as requested for consistency. It is the most common U.S. time zone due to its association with key financial and political centers.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,247.47
-1.56%
10,953.59
+0.34%
3,318,087
-0.04%
2,283.17
+0.00%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.06% | -7.78% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.08% | -10.91% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 98.38 | -2.29% | +42.21% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 90.47 | -1.87% | +37.01% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,056 | +0.22% | +20.31% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.49 | +1.20% | +49.89% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,253 | +1.21% | +24.72% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.28% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 679.00 | -2.48% | +25.39% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 314.20 | +1.55% | +3.07% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -10.92% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -57.91% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 80.00 | +0.20% | +18.80% | 79.84 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 11,312 |
| BEEF | 222.58 | -1.25% | -1.43% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 342.05 | -0.50% | +4.00% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,331 | +0.57% | -34.38% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,107,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,132,600 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,600 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,799,800 |
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