Brazil Election Results 2026: Runoff Live Count, October 25
Brazil Election Results 2026: Runoff Live Count
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Tap any state for its voters, economy and export markets, its governor and Senate races, the 2022 results and the live count.
- Lula 51.8% · Flávio Bolsonaro 48.2% · 100.0% of polling stations counted
With all polling stations counted, Lula has 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The TSE's formal declaration follows.
- Runoff poll data: 45 polls as free CSV, average Flávio 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
Every national runoff poll since 4 October from 21 pollsters, as CSV and embeddable charts. Flávio leads in 39 of 45 polls.
- Why Bolsonaro Allies Cry Persecution
Flávio Bolsonaro and his allies call court orders political persecution. The record, the courts, the Lula government and US officials answer.
- Did Bolsonaro’s Son Flee? Deadline Missed
Flavio Bolsonaro, who lost Brazil's runoff, missed a court deadline to hand in his passports. Police are checking whether he left the country.
- Trump Calls Brazil's Election Rigged
Trump said Brazil’s runoff “looked like another rigged election” and offered no evidence. Brazil’s vice president called the claim totally wrong.
- Brazil’s 27 Governors Span Eight Parties
The runoff settled Brazil’s last six governorships on 25 October, leaving the Liberal Party with six states, the PT with four and eight parties in all.
- Petrobras Sheds US$24B in Value on Lula Win
Brazil’s Petrobras fell from US$159.8 billion to US$135.6 billion in one session after Lula’s re-election, as the real weakened and dividends stayed scheduled.
- Bolsonaro’s Party Recognizes Lula’s Win
The Liberal Party of the Bolsonaro family accepted Lula’s runoff result on 26 October but queried pre-election spending, as Flávio Bolsonaro and Trump object.
- Brazil Voting Extension Drew 34,330 Votes
Machine logs show about 34,330 votes after the original closing time, roughly 0.8% of Lula’s 4.43 million margin, as Trump and Flávio questioned the extension.
- Lula Camp Vows Surplus, Eyes Finance Chief
After a 13.88% stock market fall, Lula’s party president promised budget surpluses and a finance minister by year end, with Rafael Fonteles a leading name.
- Brazil Bars Flávio Bolsonaro From Leaving
Justice Alexandre de Moraes barred Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from leaving Brazil and ordered his passports handed over a day after the runoff.
- Brazil Stocks Plunge 13.88% After Lula Win | Brazil Market Report, Oct 26
Brazil's Ibovespa stock index plunged 13.88% on Monday and the dollar jumped 8.79% against the real after Lula's re-election, halting trading for 30 minutes.
- Brazil Stocks Fall 13.9% After Lula’s Win
Brazil’s main stock index lost 13.88% in one session after Lula’s win, its biggest fall since 2020, and the real sank. Here is what US investors face.
Federal Senate · 81 seats
Chamber of Deputies · 513 seats
- Sunday, 25 October, 7 a.m. ETRunoff polls open (8 a.m. Brasília, 11:00 Lisbon).
- Sunday, 25 October, 4 p.m. ETPolls close (5 p.m. Brasília, 20:00 Lisbon, after Europe's clock change). The TSE starts publishing the official count.
- Sunday eveningIn 2022 about 97% of the vote was counted by roughly 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (8:30 p.m. ET).
- Sunday, October 25Runoff for president, and for governor in states where no candidate passed 50% of valid votes.
- January 5 and 6, 2027The president takes office on January 5, the governors on January 6.
- President and governorsmore than 50% of valid votes, else a runoff
- Senate54 of 81 seats, two per state, no runoff
- Blank and null ballotsdo not count toward 50%
- Votingcompulsory, electronic machines
Every presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff.
Change against 2022 compares the gap between Lula and the Bolsonaro candidate with the 2022 first round (Lula against Jair Bolsonaro). Tap a column to sort.
Brazil has about 30 parties, and their names can mislead: the Liberal Party (PL) is the main party of the right, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is centre-right. Several mid-sized parties form the Centrão (“big centre”), a loose bloc without a single leader that trades its votes in Congress for posts and budget money and has backed governments of left and right.
Sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), official results (resultados.tse.jus.br), candidate lists and the 2022 results by state (TSE open data, votes by municipality); IBGE (state boundaries, 2025 population estimate, regional GDP); Comex Stat, Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (exports 2025); polling institutes as named; Senate (inauguration dates). Percentages are shares of valid votes, as the TSE reports them. The Rio Times does not call races: a winner or a runoff is shown only once the TSE declares it.
Updated 8 times · Latest: 21 October 2026
Brazil · Elections · Key Facts
- The runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula meet on Sunday, 25 October.
- Live count: The official count appears on this page from about 4 p.m. ET.
- The rule: A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright.
- The first round: With every polling station counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%.
- Why Americans care: US tariffs of up to 37.5% hit Brazilian goods.
In plain English
Brazil’s presidential runoff is on Sunday, 25 October, between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The official count appears on this page from about 4 p.m. ET. In the first round, Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, so neither passed 50%.
The runoff. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. US Eastern (8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília), and the official count appears on this page as the electoral court (TSE) publishes it, from about 4 p.m. ET, which is 8 p.m. in Lisbon and London. US tariffs of up to 37.5% hit Brazilian goods, and the winner sets Brazil’s course between Washington and Beijing.
The first round. About 158.7 million people are registered to vote (TSE, July). Turnout was 78.92%, against 79.05% in the 2022 first round. The last Datafolha and Quaest polls (published October 3) had Flávio Bolsonaro on 42% and 45% of valid votes and Lula on 45% and 46%. Flávio finished 5 and 2 points above them; Lula, on 45.16%, landed within a point of both.
Brazil Runoff Results: When and Where to Follow the Count
Brazil’s presidential runoff is on Sunday, 25 October 2026, between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, which is 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. US Eastern.
The electoral court (TSE) starts publishing the count at 5 p.m. Brasília time, 4 p.m. US Eastern, and this page carries the live results from that moment. Our guide to the Brazil runoff results start time sets out where to follow the count.
In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, so neither passed 50%. For the runoff, our Brazil election 2026 guide has the date, the debates and the issues, our Brazil election polls tracker averages every survey and our Brazil election odds page follows the prediction markets.
Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, voted on Sunday, October 4, and the presidential race goes to a runoff. With every polling station counted, the electoral court (TSE) has Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, on 47.03% of valid votes and President Lula on 45.16%. Neither passed 50%, so the two meet again on Sunday, October 25.
This page carries the official TSE count: the national result, all 27 states, the governor and Senate races, turnout and what the numbers mean for the runoff. The results center above updates by itself every few minutes. Tap a state on the map for its voters, its economy and its export markets, and compare every state with 2022. For the stakes in plain English, read our analysis before the vote.
Live Results: Brazil’s Runoff, October 25, 2026
Official TSE count: 100.00% of polling stations counted, as of 23:22 BRT (22:22 ET, 02:22 Lisbon).
With all polling stations counted, Lula has 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The TSE’s formal declaration follows.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Valid votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula | PT | 64,256,232 | 51.79% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | PL | 59,826,041 | 48.21% |
Turnout 80.78%, abstention 19.22%. Source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), resultados.tse.jus.br. This box updates automatically every 5 minutes during the count; analysis follows below.
Archive: our first-round election night updates (October 4)
3:11 a.m. ET (4:11 a.m. Brasília): The count is complete. According to the TSE (data as of 1:58 a.m. ET), Flávio Bolsonaro finished with 47.03% of valid votes (56,104,503) and Lula with 45.16% (53,879,538), a gap of 1.87 points or about 2.2 million votes. Augusto Cury has 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% and Romeu Zema 0.27%. No candidate passed 50%, so Brazil holds a runoff on Sunday, October 25.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, finished 3.8 points and 5.0 million votes above his father’s 2022 first round (43.20%, 51.07 million votes). Lula finished 3.3 points and 3.4 million votes below his own 2022 first round (48.43%, 57.26 million), according to the TSE. The result also beat the last polls: Datafolha had Flávio on 42% of valid votes and Quaest on 45%.
- Flávio won 15 of the 27 electoral units (26 states and the Federal District), including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the three largest electorates.
- Lula won 12, among them all nine Northeast states plus Amazonas, Amapá and Pará.
In New York, the EWZ fund, which tracks Brazilian shares, rose 10.29% to US$42.12 in overnight trading at 9:31 p.m. ET on Sunday (Exame). Exame cautions that the move may not carry over to the Ibovespa when Brazil’s B3 exchange opens at 10 a.m. Brasília (9 a.m. ET) on Monday.
7:31 p.m. ET (8:31 p.m. Brasília): With 91.61% of polling stations counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.93% of valid votes (52,153,453) and Lula 44.11% (47,999,342), according to the TSE. Augusto Cury has 2.93%, Renan Santos 2.29%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.24% and Romeu Zema 0.28%. No candidate is above 50%.
On our arithmetic from the TSE figures, Lula cannot realistically reach 50%: even every remaining valid vote, an estimated 10.5 million, would leave him near 49%. Flávio would need about 71% to 72% of them. The TSE has not yet declared a runoff, which would be held on Sunday, October 25.
The lead is shrinking as the Northeast reports. Flávio led by 7.3 points when about 65% was counted at 7:25 p.m. Brasília (dgabc.com.br); the gap is now 3.8 points. Bahia is 78.7% counted, Ceará 80.9% and Alagoas 74.3%, and Lula leads all three. In São Paulo, 95.4% counted, Flávio has 51.99% against Jair Bolsonaro’s 47.71% in the 2022 first round, while Lula’s 38.13% compares with 40.89% then (TSE).
First Results: Votes From Abroad
Brazilians living abroad voted first, and their polling-station tallies (boletins de urna) were summed by Brazilian media hours before any official count. Flávio Bolsonaro won Japan with 71.7% of valid votes, according to O Tempo, while Lula led in Berlin with 83.02% (CartaCapital) and in Porto with 52.50% to 38.32% (CNN Portugal).
By about 3:50 p.m. Brasília time (6:50 p.m. Lisbon), with 661 of 1,282 overseas ballot boxes from 54 countries counted, Revista Fórum had Lula on 53.1% and Flávio on 37.2% abroad. Lisbon, the largest overseas city, had not been reported in the sources we checked.
This is not a forecast. Brazilians abroad are about 0.6% of the electorate, those who vote are mostly people near a consulate, and one country can dominate the early sums. The numbers come from the press, not from the TSE, and can change.
The TSE began publishing the official count at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. Lisbon). Read the full breakdown: Flávio Wins Japan as Lula Leads Berlin and Porto.
The official count of the TSE appears in the box above and updates every few minutes. Brazil votes on electronic machines, so the count is fast: a clear national picture usually emerges within a few hours. The Rio Times does not call races; a winner or a runoff is reported once the TSE declares it.
What to Watch on Election Night
The 50% line. Lula avoids a runoff only with more than half of valid votes. Datafolha puts him at 45% and Quaest at 46%, so a first-round win would need a polling miss in his favour.
The Southeast decides. São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo hold 41.8% of the electorate. Datafolha’s state polls show Flávio ahead in a runoff in São Paulo (48% to 45%) and Rio de Janeiro (51% to 42%), and Lula ahead in Minas Gerais (48% to 44%).
North against South. In the 2022 first round Lula led all nine Northeast states, by up to 54 points in Piauí, and Jair Bolsonaro led all three southern states (TSE). The state table above shows each state’s 2022 result, so you can see on Sunday night where the map is moving.
The governors. Tarcísio de Freitas leads São Paulo with 50% against 33% for Fernando Haddad (Datafolha). Pernambuco (46% to 44%) and Ceará (49% to 47.6%) are close. Governors also need more than 50%, or they face a runoff on October 25.
The Senate. Voters fill 54 of the 81 seats, two per state, with no runoff. Only the Senate can try and remove Supreme Court justices, and conviction needs 54 votes, which is why the right wants a big result. The PL has been the largest Senate party since January, with 15 senators (Agência Senado).
Markets. The real closed at R$5.2223 per US$ on Friday, October 2 (RT market data). A first-round decision and a tight race heading for a runoff would price very differently on Monday; follow our markets coverage.
The Final Polls
At least nine national surveys appeared between September 28 and October 3, and the results center above lists them all. They agree on the shape of the race: Lula ahead or level in the first round, no one near 50% of valid votes, and a runoff within the margin of error. Pollsters reach voters in person, by phone, online or by automated calls, which is why their numbers differ.
Polls have missed before. In 2022 Datafolha’s penultimate poll gave Jair Bolsonaro 36% of valid votes in the first round; he received 43.20%, according to the TSE. Every survey is in our Brazil election polls tracker.
The Runoff Campaign, October 5
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) meet on Sunday, October 25. Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. in Brasília (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET). The winner needs more than half of the valid votes; blank and spoiled ballots do not count. The new president takes office on January 5, 2027 and the governors on January 6, under a 2021 constitutional amendment (Senate radio). Our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide has the mechanics.
Flávio starts 1.87 points and about 2.2 million votes ahead. If the two finalists keep their voters and turnout holds, he needs about 3 more points to pass 50% and Lula about 4.8. The other ten candidates took 7.81% of valid votes between them, so Flávio would need roughly 38% of those voters and Lula about 62%. That is our arithmetic from the TSE figures, not a forecast. A first-round lead is no guarantee: in 2022 Lula led by 5.2 points and won the runoff 50.90% to 49.10%.
The Cury voters. Augusto Cury (Avante, 2.89%) said he would stay silent on the runoff and refused any post in the next government.
- Romeu Zema (Novo, 0.27%) signalled support for Flávio.
- Renan Santos (Missão, 2.24%) will back neither.
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD, 2.18%) said he would speak to his party president before deciding (Terra, updated 12:21 a.m. Brasília on October 5).
The mood. Flávio called the result the end of the PT era, referring to Lula’s Workers’ Party, and said he sees a real possibility of winning. Lula said he had been convinced he would win in the first round and that a new campaign begins on Monday (NC News). Both camps can also look to the 33.47 million voters who stayed home: abstention was 21.08%, against 20.95% in 2022.
TV time. Free TV and radio campaign time returns on October 9 and runs to October 23 (TSE calendar, via Band). In the first round Lula’s coalition held 5 minutes 31 seconds per block against 4 minutes 20 seconds for Flávio (ND Mais). We have not confirmed how the runoff time is divided.
What it means for you. For holders of US-listed Brazilian shares and for companies that trade with Brazil, the next three weeks keep the outlook open: the real and Brazilian stocks are likely to react to each new poll. Not yet known: who Caiado will back, how the TV time is split, and whether the pollsters that underestimated Flávio will change their methods.
Background: Brazil Poll: Flávio Bolsonaro Closes on Lula and Edges Ahead in Run-Off.
More: Brazil news and the complete election guide, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Brazil’s 2026 election results be announced?
The TSE began publishing the official count when polls closed at 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. Brasília) on Sunday, October 4. All polling stations were counted overnight, and the TSE figures as of 1:58 a.m. ET on October 5 are the final tally.
Will there be a runoff?
Yes. With every polling station counted, no candidate passed 50% of valid votes: Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.03% and Lula 45.16% (TSE). The two meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25. Every presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff.
Who is leading the 2026 Brazil election?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the TSE count with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, a gap of about 2.2 million votes. The last polls, published on October 3, had Lula ahead or level: Datafolha 45% to 42%, Quaest 46% to 45%.
What else is on the ballot?
Voters also elect 27 governors, 54 of the 81 senators, the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies and state legislatures. Governors need more than 50% of valid votes; the two most-voted Senate candidates in each state win.
When does the new president take office?
On January 5, 2027. Governors take office on January 6, under a 2021 constitutional amendment.
Sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), official results and the 2022 results by state (open data); Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Quaest, Nexus, Ideia, Real Time Big Data, Vox Brasil, PoderData and MDA as published between September 28 and October 3; Agência Senado and Rádio Senado; RT market data (exchange rate).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief