Brazil Election Explained Before Sunday’s Vote

ANALYSIS · BRAZIL ELECTION 2026

Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, votes on Sunday in a first round that polls say neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro will win outright. Voting runs from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern Time (8 a.m. to 5 p.m. in Brasília), and the electoral court (TSE) starts publishing results after 5 p.m. Brasília time, which is 4 p.m. on the US East Coast.

The most likely outcome is a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The latest polls give Lula a lead of a few points in the first round, but they show the runoff as a statistical tie. Most polls are inside their margins of error.

For US readers the stakes are concrete. Brazilian exports already face US tariffs, Washington shut its consular services in Brazil this weekend citing security concerns, and a President Lula or a President Bolsonaro would handle China, trade and the courts very differently. This guide explains the race in about ten minutes. For live numbers, use our Brazil election results page, which shows official TSE figures from 4 p.m. ET.

The candidates at a glance

Six candidates matter in the polls. Two lead. The other four share about 10% of valid votes and could decide the second round if they endorse anyone.

Exchange rate: R$5.2223 per US$ (EODHD close, 2 October). Sources: Datafolha via Folha Patoense and InfoMoney; party and camp classifications are ours. Positions on endorsements as reported by Veja and other Brazilian outlets.

What the final polls say

At least nine national surveys appeared between 28 September and 3 October. They agree on the shape of the race: Lula ahead or level in round one, no one near 50% of valid votes, and a runoff within the margin of error.

* Share of valid votes (blank and null ballots excluded). All other figures are shares of all voters. Sources: Exame’s poll table, Poder360, Gazeta do Povo, InfoMoney, AtlasIntel via Terra and Gazeta do Povo. Quaest and Datafolha publish final polls on Saturday evening, after this article went online; see our poll tracker. The Ipsos-Ipec voting-intention numbers were not available to us.

Why the institutes disagree

Three things explain most of the gap between a 5-point Lula lead and a 1-point Flávio lead. First, the base. Datafolha’s headline is 42% to 38% of all voters, but 45% to 40% of valid votes. Comparing one institute’s total with another’s valid-vote figure creates false differences.

Second, the method. In-person pollsters such as Datafolha and Quaest, telephone pollsters such as Nexus and Ideia, online pollsters such as AtlasIntel, and automated phone surveys such as PoderData reach different kinds of voters. Third, the timing: ten days is a long time in a tight race. Our own coverage found Quaest’s director crediting late gains for Lula to women, low-income voters and Bolsa Família recipients (read the poll comparison).

Polls have missed before. In 2022 Datafolha’s penultimate poll gave Jair Bolsonaro 36% of valid votes in round one. He received 43.20%, against 48.43% for Lula, according to the TSE. Whether the polls err the same way this year is unknown.

How the vote and the count work

Voting is compulsory for Brazilians aged 18 to 69 and optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, people aged 70 and over and those who cannot read. Missing a round without a justification brings a fine of R$3.51 (about US$0.67). In 2022, 79.05% of registered voters turned out; 20.95% stayed away (TSE data).

Everyone votes on electronic machines. There are 563,910 of them this year, and the TSE president said on 29 September that 90% were ready. Each machine prints its own tally at the close, and those tallies are transmitted to the TSE. Phones must be switched off and left outside the booth. Foreign residents cannot vote, apart from Portuguese citizens with equal political rights under the bilateral treaty.

The TSE starts releasing results after the polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time. In 2022 the court had counted about 97% of the vote by roughly 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (8:30 p.m. ET), and the outcome was clear that night. The full count took until Tuesday.

To win in round one a presidential candidate needs more than half of valid votes. Blank and null ballots do not count in that base. If nobody gets there, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October. Governors follow the same rule in each state. Senators do not: the two most-voted candidates in each state win, with no second round.

See also our full guide to the 2026 election and the runoff explainer.

Brazil’s map, region by region and state by state

Brazil votes as several countries at once. The Southeast has the most voters, the Northeast is Lula’s base, and the South and the farm belt lean to Flávio Bolsonaro. The table shows each region’s share of the electorate and who leads in the Datafolha poll of 1 October, in a runoff.

Voter shares are the TSE’s July count of 158,745,463 registered voters (918,876 abroad make up the rest), as reported by Ric.com.br and Bloomberg Línea. Datafolha groups the North and Centre-West. PoderData, which polled the regions separately on 30 September to 2 October, had Flávio on 49% in both the Centre-West and the North.

Southeast: the battlefield. Datafolha’s state polls show Flávio ahead in São Paulo (48% to 45% in a runoff) and Rio de Janeiro (51% to 42%), and Lula ahead in Minas Gerais (48% to 44%). Our Southeast poll analysis has the detail.

Northeast: Lula’s fortress. Lula leads by more than 25 points in the region. His risk there is turnout and indifference more than the opposition.

South and Centre-West: the right’s base. A Real Time Big Data poll in Rio Grande do Sul had Flávio on 44% and Lula on 41% (details). Agribusiness states vote heavily for the right.

North: the swing and the river. The race is closer here. The Amazon drought is a practical worry, because rivers are the roads to many polling places. The TSE has set up a climate room with backup sites and Armed Forces help, while Amazonas officials say the first round is on track (read more).

The governors’ races to watch

Sources: Datafolha via Exame, AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data via Rio Times reporting, TSE. See our Garotinho ruling and São Paulo poll average.

The Senate: why a majority matters

Voters fill 54 of the 81 Senate seats, two per state. Each voter casts two Senate votes. Only the Senate can try and remove Supreme Court justices, and conviction needs two-thirds, or 54 votes. Approving a justice nominated by the president needs an absolute majority of 41, according to O Povo. That is why the right wants a big Senate result: a majority would let it press the Supreme Court. The left wants to block that.

The PL has been the largest Senate party since January, with 15 senators (Agência Senado). Projections published on 3 October by Estadão/Quaest, as reported by O Povo, see it rising to about 25. Even then it would still depend on allies for 54 votes. Datafolha’s last Senate polls show four-way ties in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, clear leaders in Rio (Benedita da Silva, PT, 19%) and the Federal District (Michelle Bolsonaro, PL, 23%) and a two-way tie in Pernambuco (state-by-state numbers).

How strong is the left, how strong is the right

Add up the candidates in the polls and the blocs are almost level. In Datafolha’s valid votes, Lula has 45%. Flávio Bolsonaro, Caiado and Zema, the three right-of-centre names, have 44% together (40%, 3% and 1%). Cury and Renan Santos, who reject both camps, have 7%. In AtlasIntel’s valid votes the picture is the same: Lula 46.2%, the three right-of-centre candidates 45.8%, Cury and Santos 7.4%. The grouping of candidates into camps is our own.

The key battleground is Congress. In the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies the PL is the largest single party with roughly 100 seats, and the PT–PCdoB–PV federation has roughly 80. A loose group of centre-right parties, União Brasil, PSD, PP, Republicanos, MDB, Podemos and PSDB, holds the balance. Counts differ by source and date, because deputies switch parties.

That group is the “Centrão”, a shifting set of pragmatic parties that trade support for budget money, committee posts and ministries. It is not one party and it has no single leader. Lula says Congress has “kidnapped” presidential power by controlling budget amendments (our report). Any president will have to deal with it.

What holds the blocs together is largely personal. Lula’s coalition rests on his name, the Northeast and cash-transfer programmes. The right is held together by the Bolsonaro surname, evangelical and conservative voters and agribusiness. Both have seams. The left is split between PT and PDT candidates in Minas Gerais and Pernambuco. The right is split between the PL, the PSD’s Caiado and the Novo party’s Zema, whose voters could go either way in a runoff.

The mood of Brazilians

Brazilians are divided and tired of the fight. Datafolha found 48% approve of Lula’s work and 50% disapprove (poll of 15 to 17 September, reported by Poder360). On a different scale, 34% rate his government good or great, 23% regular and 42% bad or terrible. His approval is mixed, but it has not collapsed.

Rejection is the sharper number. In BTG/Nexus, 51% said they would never vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 48% never for Lula. Quaest put rejection at 56% and 54%. The two men are about equally disliked, so each needs to bring out his base and win over the undecided.

Fatigue is a risk. In Quaest the share saying they would vote blank, vote null or stay home rose from 7% to 10% in a week, and O Globo reported that analysts expect more “non-voting” than in 2022. The economy gives Lula something to point to. Unemployment fell to 5.3% in the quarter to August, the lowest for that period since the series began in 2012 (IBGE, 29 September). Inflation was 4.22% in the 12 months to August (IBGE). The central bank cut its Selic rate by a quarter point to 13.75% on 16 September, down from a peak of 15%.

Security worries voters more than the economy in some surveys. A Quaest/Pax poll published on 18 September had 28% naming violence as Brazil’s top problem, ahead of corruption (22%), the economy (19%) and health (15%). The tone of the campaign is rough: on 1 October Lula called Flávio a “mongrel” on a podcast (our report).

What is at stake

The economy and markets

Brazilian assets rallied into the vote. The Ibovespa rose 2.63% on Friday 2 October to 192,115 points, and the dollar ended the week at about R$5.22 (EODHD). In New York the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) gained 2.8% to US$38.19, Petrobras ADRs (PBR) 3.2% to US$21.65 and Vale ADRs (VALE) 2.3% to US$13.76. Speculators held a net long position of 60,538 real futures contracts on 29 September, up 6,337 in a week (CFTC). We could not confirm what drove the Friday jump; it may reflect positioning before the vote.

The candidates differ on fiscal policy. Lula’s government has already exempted workers earning up to R$5,000 a month (about US$957) from income tax. Flávio Bolsonaro’s SOS Brasil fund would draw on oil concessions, receivables and federal property to pay down debt (details). Markets will watch which one signals more spending restraint.

The United States, China and the world

The US is the central foreign-policy question. Since 22 July Brazilian goods face a 25% US tariff under Section 301, and since 24 July a second 12.5% “forced labour” tariff applies to most goods, so some exports pay up to 37.5%. The Section 301 case covered digital trade and electronic payments, ethanol market access, anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property and illegal deforestation, according to the US Trade Representative. A US trade court heard a challenge to the 12.5% layer on 30 September (our report).

China is Brazil’s largest export market. In 2025 Brazil sold China about US$100 billion of goods, or 28.7% of its exports, against US$37.7 billion, or 10.8%, to the United States (MDIC). Lula courts both, with BRICS at the centre of his foreign policy. Flávio Bolsonaro says he wants a close US relationship but an “economically pragmatic” China policy, as he told a rally in Natal on 21 September.

The European Union’s interim trade agreement with Mercosur has applied provisionally since 1 May 2026, and Brazil completed its own ratification in March. The European Parliament has not yet given its final consent.

The Amazon, security and the courts

Deforestation alerts in the Amazon fell 36.87% to 2,874 km² between August 2025 and July 2026, the lowest in the series, INPE said on 7 August. Lula’s plan targets zero net deforestation by 2030. Flávio Bolsonaro promises to end illegal deforestation by 2029, and critics say his positions favour agribusiness and mining.

On security, the United States announced in May that it would designate Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho gangs as terrorist groups. Brazil’s foreign ministry warned that this could open the door to military action on Brazilian soil. Lula’s government has called it a threat to sovereignty.

The courts are a campaign issue. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year coup sentence, reportedly at home in Brasília for health reasons, and his lawyers have asked the Supreme Court to suspend it (our report). Both Lula and many Senate candidates support fixed terms for Supreme Court justices, who now serve until 75.

Interference and the fight over the rules

This campaign has been fought in courtrooms as much as on television. What is documented:

Aparecida posts. A false claim that Flávio Bolsonaro wanted to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as Brazil’s patron saint spread across social media. TSE Justice André Mendonça ordered more than a thousand links removed on 25 September, with a daily fine of R$50,000 (about US$9,600) per platform for non-compliance. Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino reversed the order on 27 September, and Justice Luiz Fux restored it the next day. On 30 September the TSE plenary kept the removal of posts stating the claim as fact, while allowing satire and commentary (our report).

Debates and ads. TV Globo cancelled the last presidential debate on 1 October after the TSE barred an empty lectern for Lula, who had decided not to attend, and Flávio Bolsonaro withdrew, accusing the electoral court of censorship (our report). The TSE also suspended a Lula radio ad that linked his rival to a jailed banker, with the judge faulting its framing rather than its facts. Meta blocked Lula’s ad account on 23 September and says it works again.

Rules on artificial intelligence. TSE rules require clear labels on AI-made campaign content and, as we read them, ban new synthetic content using a candidate’s image or voice from 72 hours before the vote until 24 hours after. Platforms must obey takedown orders and block identical reposts.

The US consulates. The US embassy in Brasília and four consulates suspended in-person services on 2 October, citing security concerns, with no reopening date. The Federal Police searched two addresses over an alleged plan against US diplomatic sites. The police and the intelligence agency Abin deny reports of a “coup alert”. Lula’s campaign asked the TSE to add the closure to a foreign-interference case (our report).

What is not established: any proof that a foreign government changed votes, or that the consulate closure was linked to the election. The claims come from the campaigns and political actors, and we label them as such.

Lula or Bolsonaro: what changes for the United States and the world

Forecasting is not our job here. These are the documented positions and stakes under each outcome, not predictions.

If Lula wins a fourth term

Tariffs. Brazil’s government said on 23 July it would use its Reciprocity Law and take the US tariffs to the World Trade Organization. A Lula government would likely continue that track, and it has said it does not want to choose between Washington and Beijing.

China and BRICS. Brazil’s trade with China is large and Lula treats BRICS as central. Expect more of the same: Chinese investment pledges, trade in local currencies and a “multipolar” message.

Amazon and climate. Enforcement would continue and the zero net deforestation target stay in place, though Lula’s government also backs offshore oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon. Petrobras reported a second oil find there this week (our report).

If Flávio Bolsonaro wins

The United States. He has promised to seek a free-trade deal with Washington and deeper cooperation on security and critical minerals. He met Donald Trump at the White House on 26 May and told the US trade office’s tariff hearing in July that he wanted the tariff cancelled, not postponed, CNN Brasil reported. A deal is not guaranteed: Trump has so far declined to say whether he backs him.

China and BRICS. He criticises what he calls submission to China but has said his policy would be “economically pragmatic”. His written government plan does not mention BRICS.

Courts and platforms. His campaign accuses the electoral court of censorship, and press summaries of his plan say it proposes changes to the Supreme Court and an end to presidential re-election. US tech firms would watch whether Brazil keeps the Supreme Court’s 2025 ruling that makes platforms liable for some illegal content.

Amazon. His plan promises to end illegal deforestation by 2029 and proposes environmental licences that are granted automatically if agencies miss deadlines. Critics worry that this and his support for mining and farming in protected areas would weaken enforcement.

Either way, the EU–Mercosur interim trade agreement stays in force, and Argentina’s Javier Milei has said he hopes “his friend” Flávio wins (report).

Behind the scenes: how hard Washington and Beijing are pushing

Foreign pressure is the most heated claim in the campaign, so we separate what is documented from what is alleged.

Sources as linked at the end of the article. Our own report on the consulate closure is here.

The swing factors

Five things can decide a result this close.

Undecided and soft voters. A Meio/Ideia poll found 31.5% of voters could still switch candidates, though 68.5% said their choice was made. BTG/Nexus found only 12% still open (our report). Among the persuadable group, 45.1% said a new proposal could move them and 29.3% a late scandal.

Cury and Santos voters. The two outsiders have about 7% of valid votes combined. Their supporters reject both camps, so they may abstain in a runoff.

Rejection. With both front-runners rejected by about half of voters, the winner may be the one more voters can tolerate.

Southeast versus Northeast. Lula needs a big Northeast turnout to offset losses in the South and the farm belt. Flávio Bolsonaro needs to win or tie São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio.

Turnout. A higher abstention rate than in 2022 (20.95%) would change the arithmetic, and Quaest sees more blank and null voting.

The three weeks that decide everything (4 to 25 October)

If Sunday does not settle it, the runoff campaign runs 21 days. Four things will shape it.

Endorsements. Zema signalled he would back Flávio. Caiado and Renan Santos have refused to choose. Cury first left the door open to Flávio, then said he backs neither. Lula’s allies are seeking the neutrality of the PSD and a bridge to Cury, Diário de Pernambuco reported. These are reported manoeuvres, not signed deals.

Debates. TV Globo’s debate collapsed, so the runoff debates matter more. Band and Estadão have reserved Sunday 11 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time for a debate between the two finalists, and Record has pencilled in the same date at 9 p.m. These dates depend on the first-round result and could change.

Legal surprises. The Federal Police are examining a R$3.1 million (about US$590,000) BRB state-bank loan that helped Flávio Bolsonaro buy a Brasília house in 2021, O Globo and Valor reported. No charge has been filed (our report). Jair Bolsonaro’s lawyers have again asked the Supreme Court to suspend his sentence and annul the conviction; the petition was filed with the court’s president, Edson Fachin.

Policy fights. The Senate opens floor debate on ending the six-days-on, one-day-off work schedule on 6 October, though the vote may wait (our report). The US court ruling on the 12.5% tariff could also arrive at any time.

What it means for you

US investors. Expect a volatile Monday. Brazilian markets reopen on Monday, and US-listed ADRs such as Petrobras (PBR) and Vale (VALE) and the EWZ fund react in New York. Friday’s rally leaves room for a pullback if the result disappoints and for a further gain if it does not. A runoff would extend the uncertainty to 25 October. The real closed at R$5.22 per dollar on Friday.

Expats and travellers. Foreigners cannot vote, but the election shapes the weekend. There is no national alcohol ban, but states and cities can impose their own “dry law”, so check local notices. Party colours worn quietly are allowed, but rallies, loudspeakers and handing out campaign material are banned on election day. US citizens needing consular help should phone the embassy’s duty officer, since in-person visits are suspended.

Companies. The Section 301 tariffs, the pending court case and the EU–Mercosur agreement matter for exporters. A runoff means three more weeks before a policy direction is clear.

What is not known

We do not know how large the abstention will be, or whether late polls on Saturday evening from Quaest and Datafolha show a change. We do not know what the US security threat was, when consulates will reopen, or whether the endorsements will move voters. We cannot say which way the polls’ error, if any, will run.

Brazil’s politics are also a story about balance. A Lula win would test whether a divided Congress lets him govern. A Flávio Bolsonaro win would test whether his coalition holds without his father on the ballot. In both cases, the Senate arithmetic will shape the next four years.

What happens next

Sunday evening, our Brazil election results page shows official TSE numbers from 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. Brasília), updated every 20 minutes. If the race goes to a runoff, the candidates have 21 days to campaign. For background, see our election guide, poll tracker and runoff explainer. Profiles: Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro and Michelle Bolsonaro.

When do polls open and close, and when are results published?

Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time on Sunday 4 October, which is 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern Time. The TSE begins publishing results after 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET). Our results page shows official TSE figures from 4 p.m. ET.

Will there be a runoff?

A runoff is likely. A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes, and no major poll puts Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro above that. In Datafolha’s poll of 1 October, Lula had 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% of valid votes. If nobody passes 50%, the top two meet on Sunday 25 October.

Who is ahead in the polls?

Most national polls put Lula ahead in the first round, by roughly 3 to 5 points among all voters, while a few put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead. The runoff is a statistical tie: Datafolha had 48% to 45% for Lula, AtlasIntel 47.6% to 47.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and PoderData 50% each among valid votes.

Can foreigners vote, and what changes for visitors?

Foreign residents cannot vote, apart from Portuguese citizens with equal political rights under the bilateral treaty. Visitors should check local notices on alcohol sales, avoid rallies and the handing out of campaign material, which are banned on election day, and know that US consulates have suspended in-person services since 2 October.

How could the result affect US tariffs and investors?

Brazilian goods face a 25% Section 301 tariff and a 12.5% forced-labour tariff, so some exports pay up to 37.5%. Lula’s government is challenging them at the WTO, while Flávio Bolsonaro has promised to seek a free-trade deal with the United States. The Ibovespa closed at 192,115 on Friday and the real at R$5.22 per dollar, so a volatile Monday is possible.

Why does the Senate result matter?

Voters fill 54 of the 81 Senate seats. Only the Senate can try Supreme Court justices, and conviction needs 54 votes, two-thirds of the chamber. A larger PL bench would raise pressure on the court, but projections suggest the party would still need allies.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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