BRAZIL · PETROBRAS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is Latin America’s biggest economy, and its federal government controls Petrobras, the country’s largest oil company, with 50.26% of the voting shares.
- Why it matters Petrobras shares also trade in New York, and non-Brazilian investors hold 48.73% of the company’s capital, so Monday’s fall reached US holders directly.
- Why now Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term on Sunday 25 October 2026, and Petrobras entered Monday’s session near a record market value.
- What happened Petrobras’s market value fell from R$805.1 billion (US$159.8 billion) to R$745.9 billion (US$135.6 billion) in one session, down 7.4% in reais and 15.1% in dollars.
- The numbers Common shares fell 6.81% and preferred shares fell 8.18%, against 13.88% for the Ibovespa index, while the central bank’s official dollar rate rose 9.2% against the real.
- What it means for you The company’s value in dollars fell about twice as much as in reais, because the real weakened while the stock fell.
- Still open Whether the new government changes fuel pricing or the dividend policy, and how the shares trade on Tuesday.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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In Plain English
Petrobras has two kinds of listed shares: common shares (PETR3), which carry a vote, and preferred shares (PETR4), which carry priority on dividends. Market value is the number of shares of each class times its closing price, added together.
An ADR is a certificate traded in the United States that represents shares of a foreign company. JCP, short for juros sobre capital próprio or interest on equity, is a payout that Petrobras lists separately from ordinary dividends and pays with tax withheld.
PTAX is the Brazilian central bank’s daily average dollar rate, and the Ibovespa is the benchmark index of the most traded shares on the B3 exchange in São Paulo. The federal government is Petrobras’s controlling shareholder, because it holds the majority of the voting shares.
Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, ended Monday 26 October 2026 with a market value of R$745.9 billion (US$135.6 billion), down from R$805.1 billion (US$159.8 billion) on Friday, after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term. That is a 7.4% fall in reais and a 15.1% fall in dollars, or US$24.2 billion, because the real weakened as well, according to values calculated from B3’s official closing prices and Petrobras’s share count.
For US readers the gap matters because Petrobras shares also trade in New York as ADRs, and non-Brazilian investors hold 48.73% of the company’s capital, according to its investor-relations page. It also puts a number on the headline that the São Paulo exchange lost R$734 billion (US$133.4 billion at Monday’s rate) in one session, which Exame puts at 98.4% of Petrobras’s market value and which the Rio Times market report covers in full.
What Happened to the Shares
Values in dollars use the central bank’s PTAX selling rate, R$5.0377 per US$ on Friday 23 October and R$5.5007 per US$ on Monday 26 October, so the dollar rose 9.2% against the real between the two closes. Market value is the number of common and preferred shares times each class’s closing price, using the company’s 12,888,732,761 shares, none of them held in treasury.
Petrobras’s common shares, ticker PETR3, fell 6.81% to R$60.80 (US$11.05), and its preferred shares, ticker PETR4, fell 8.18% to R$53.88 (US$9.80), according to B3’s daily quotation file for 26 October. The Ibovespa index fell 13.88%, and Exame puts the fall in the exchange’s total market value at 12.91%, so Petrobras fell by less than the market.
Trading was heavy, with R$7.46 billion (US$1.36 billion) of PETR4 changing hands in the cash market on Monday against R$3.44 billion (US$682 million) on Friday. Exame lists much steeper falls elsewhere on the exchange, including Banco do Brasil at 29.33%, BTG Pactual at 24.83% and Magazine Luiza at 58.23%, figures that match B3’s closing prices, while those prices show the miner Vale up 4.01%.
From Record High to the First-Round Level
Petrobras said on 15 October that its market value passed R$800 billion (US$158.6 billion at the PTAX of 14 October) at the close on 14 October, the first time it had passed that level. B3’s files show a higher figure on 16 October, R$819.9 billion (US$161.3 billion), the highest close of any October session and the record InfoMoney also cites from Economatica data.
Monday’s value of R$745.9 billion is close to the R$751.0 billion (US$150.6 billion) that B3’s files give for 5 October, the session after the first round. The drop erased about 56% of the value Petrobras gained between 2 October, when it stood at R$700.1 billion (US$134.0 billion), and Friday 23 October.
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How Past Elections Treated the Stock
Economatica data cited by InfoMoney on 23 October show that Petrobras preferred shares fell an average of 4.5% in the first session after the runoff in the election years from 2002 to 2022. Monday’s 8.18% fall was well above that average, and it followed a 12.9% rise during the 2026 runoff campaign.
In 2006, when Lula won re-election, the shares rose 40.9% over the year, and in 2022, when he won back the presidency, they rose 47.2% including dividends, according to the same data. InfoMoney reads the data as suggesting that part of the gain comes before the election is decided, and Economatica says its figures are observed historical patterns, not causes.
What the Company and Government Said
Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard called the fall a “movimento especulativo” (speculative movement) that does not reflect the company’s fundamentals, in an interview with Reuters carried by Money Times on Monday 26 October. She added that Petrobras remains solid with a strong investment portfolio, and that “A hora é de comprar” (“It is time to buy”), before saying “Infelizmente não posso” (“Unfortunately I cannot”).
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said in an interview reported by Money Times on 23 October, two days before the runoff, that fuel subsidies could continue in 2027 if Brent crude stays at a very high level. He also warned that a possible return to import price parity under a Flávio Bolsonaro government, the model Petrobras used until 2023, would cause a sharp rise in fuel prices.
What Analysts Are Weighing
Bradesco BBI said in a report released the week before the runoff, covered by InfoMoney on 23 October, that the risk and reward on Petrobras remained favorable after the rally. Its scenarios put dividends at about US$12.5 billion in 2027 if current policies continue and about US$14.7 billion if policy changes, with downside of about 9% for B3 shares in the first case and upside of about 20% in the second.
Goldman Sachs estimated, in a report InfoMoney covered on 22 October, that Petrobras would need to raise diesel prices to distributors by about 50% if its gap to import prices closes after the election, with its realized diesel price about 21% below import parity once subsidies are counted. The earlier Rio Times report on that note has the details, and Goldman’s base case assumed no increase before the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley cut Brazil to equal-weight from overweight in its Latin America model portfolio on Monday, citing a high likelihood that current economic policies continue and higher fiscal risks, according to InfoMoney. The bank prefers exporters such as Vale, Embraer, JBS and Suzano, and the report lists energy among its favored sectors while giving Petrobras a relevant weight in the portfolio.
Who Owns Petrobras and Who Gets the Dividend
The federal government holds 50.26% of Petrobras’s voting shares and 29.02% of its total capital, and the development bank BNDES and its investment arm BNDESPar hold another 6.43%, according to the company’s ownership table headed September 2026. Non-Brazilian investors hold 48.73% of total capital, and the table shows a free float of 64.55%.
For the second quarter of 2026 Petrobras declared R$1.35 per share (US$0.25) before tax in interest on equity and dividends, payable on 23 November and 21 December to holders of record on 21 August. Across its 12.89 billion shares that comes to about R$17.4 billion (US$3.2 billion), of which about R$5.0 billion (US$0.9 billion) goes to the federal government.
What It Means for You
For US holders of Petrobras shares or ADRs, Monday’s loss in dollars was about twice the loss in reais, because the dollar rose 9.2% against the real between the two closes. The next dated events are the dividend payments on 23 November and 21 December, plus any decision on diesel pricing that the government and Petrobras take after the runoff.
Brazilian fuel buyers are the other group watching, since the diesel price and its subsidies depend on the same company and the same government. The Petrobras company profile and the Brazil section follow the story.
What Is Not Known
Tuesday’s closing prices are not yet available from B3, so it is not known whether Petrobras steadied or fell further after Monday. The company’s investor-relations and news pages also showed no statement on the share price beyond the chief executive’s interview.
It is not known whether the government will change Petrobras’s dividend policy or fuel pricing, because none of the sources reviewed describes a decision. The BBI and Goldman scenarios were written before the runoff, so they show what analysts considered before the result, not how they now see the company.
The market values here are calculated from B3’s official closing prices and the share counts on Petrobras’s investor page, which carries conflicting date labels, a September 2026 heading and an older update note. Exame attributes its R$734 billion (US$133.4 billion) total to Elos Ayta, and that figure was not recomputed.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much market value did Petrobras lose after Lula’s win?
Petrobras fell from R$805.1 billion (US$159.8 billion) on 23 October to R$745.9 billion (US$135.6 billion) on 26 October, calculated from B3 closing prices. That is 7.4% in reais and 15.1% in dollars.
How did Petrobras shares move on 26 October 2026?
The common shares (PETR3) fell 6.81% to R$60.80 (US$11.05) and the preferred shares (PETR4) fell 8.18% to R$53.88 (US$9.80), according to B3. The Ibovespa index fell 13.88%.
What did Petrobras’s chief executive say about the fall?
Magda Chambriard called it a “movimento especulativo” that does not reflect the company’s fundamentals, according to Money Times. She added that “A hora é de comprar” but that she cannot.
When does Petrobras pay its next dividends?
The next payments are scheduled for 23 November and 21 December 2026 to holders of record on 21 August, according to the company’s investor page. The second-quarter total is R$1.35 per share (US$0.25) before tax.
Who owns Petrobras?
The federal government holds 29.02% of total capital and 50.26% of the voting shares, according to the company’s investor page. Non-Brazilian investors hold 48.73% of total capital.
Sources: B3 daily quotation file, 26 October 2026; B3 daily quotation file, 23 October 2026; Petrobras investor relations, share ownership, September 2026; Petrobras investor relations, dividends and interest on equity; Agência Petrobras, 15 October 2026; Central Bank of Brazil PTAX rate, 26 October 2026; Central Bank of Brazil PTAX rate, 23 October 2026 (the same service gives the rates for 2, 5, 14 and 16 October); Exame, 26 October 2026; Money Times, 26 October 2026, interview with Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard (Reuters); Money Times, 23 October 2026; InfoMoney, 23 October 2026, Economatica data; InfoMoney, 23 October 2026, Bradesco BBI; InfoMoney, 22 October 2026, Goldman Sachs; InfoMoney, 26 October 2026, Morgan Stanley.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief