Brazil Poll: Flávio Bolsonaro Closes on Lula and Edges Ahead in Run-Off
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Key Facts
—What happened: A new Vox Brasil poll puts Lula at 37.1 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34.8 percent for the first round on 4 October.
—How close: The first-round gap fell seven points in a month and now sits inside the margin of error.
—The run-off twist: In a head-to-head, Flávio Bolsonaro edges Lula 45.1 percent to 44.5 percent, after trailing by 6.4 points in July.
—The catch: Both leads sit inside the 2.15-point margin of error, so neither is statistically safe.
—Who voters reject: Lula’s rejection rate rose to 52.7 percent, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s fell to 49.3 percent.
—The method: Vox Brasil interviewed 2,100 voters at home between 25 and 27 August, with the survey registered at the electoral court.
Brazil’s presidential race tightened sharply in August. The new poll, released on Saturday, shows Flávio Bolsonaro within the margin of error of Lula in the first round and numerically ahead in a run-off.
The first-round numbers
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Vox Brasil poll with 37.1 percent of voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 34.8 percent.
That is a gap of just 2.3 percentage points. The survey’s margin of error is 2.15 points, so the two frontrunners are in a technical tie.
A month ago the picture looked different. The gap between the two men has narrowed by seven points since the institute’s previous round in late July.
The first round of Brazil’s presidential election takes place on Sunday 4 October. A candidate wins outright only with more than half of the valid votes.
The run-off flips, numerically
The bigger surprise sits in the second-round simulation. Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 45.1 percent against Lula’s 44.5 percent in a direct clash.
It is the first time the senator has led that scenario in the Vox Brasil series. In July, Lula won the same matchup by 47.5 percent to 41.1 percent.
The distance between them fell from 6.4 points to 0.6 of a point. Within the margin of error, the run-off is also a technical tie.
Another 7.9 percent of voters said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot in that scenario. And 2.5 percent did not know or declined to answer.
Against the other candidates, Lula still leads
The Vox Brasil poll tested Lula against other possible runners-up as well. Against Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais, the president leads 45.5 percent to 39.3 percent.
Against Ronaldo Caiado, the former governor of Goiás, Lula leads 45.5 percent to 41.1 percent. Both gaps also narrowed compared with July.
The pattern is consistent across the scenarios. The president is slipping, and every challenger is either stable or rising.
Rejection moves in opposite directions
Rejection measures the share of voters who say they would never vote for a candidate. Lula holds the highest rate, at 52.7 percent.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s rejection stands at 49.3 percent. His rate fell three points from July, while Lula’s rose by 1.2 points.
Voters could name more than one rejected candidate, so the percentages do not add up to one hundred. Zema, Caiado and Renan Santos all sit between 25 and 31 percent.
High rejection matters most in a run-off, when voters must pick one of two. It is the main reason both campaigns talk about winning in the first round.
How the poll was conducted
The institute interviewed 2,100 voters in person, at their homes, between 25 and 27 August. The margin of error is 2.15 percentage points, with a 95 percent confidence level.
The survey was commissioned by the Vox Brasil institute itself. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court, known by its Portuguese initials TSE, under protocol BR-05519/2026.
Registration matters in Brazil. Polls that are not registered with the electoral court cannot legally be published during the campaign.
How Vox fits with the other pollsters
Other institutes tell a similar story with different numbers. BTG/Nexus, published on 24 August, gave Lula 41 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro 37 percent in the first round.
A series of Quaest state polls mapped the geography of the race this week. Lula leads across the Northeast, while Flávio Bolsonaro runs ahead in much of the South and Center-West.
In Minas Gerais, the classic swing state, Datafolha found Lula ahead 37 percent to 31 percent. The run-off there was also a technical tie.
Taken together, the polls describe a race that is closing. The question is no longer whether it will be competitive, but how competitive.
What to watch next
Both men say they expect to win outright in October. Flávio Bolsonaro repeated that claim on live television on Friday night.
Free campaign advertising began on Brazilian television on Friday. The next five weeks will show whether the money moves the numbers.
The next test is the debate calendar. The two frontrunners skipped the first one, but the pressure to face each other is growing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new Vox Brasil poll show?
Lula leads the first round with 37.1 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 34.8 percent, a technical tie within the margin of error. The gap between them narrowed by seven points in a month.
Who would win a run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead with 45.1 percent to Lula’s 44.5 percent. The difference is far inside the margin of error, so the scenario is also a technical tie.
How was the Vox Brasil poll conducted?
The institute interviewed 2,100 voters in person at home between 25 and 27 August 2026. The margin of error is 2.15 percentage points, and the survey is registered with the electoral court.
What is the rejection rate of the two frontrunners?
Lula has the highest rejection rate at 52.7 percent, up from July. Flávio Bolsonaro’s rejection fell to 49.3 percent, down three points in a month.
When is Brazil’s presidential election?
The first round takes place on Sunday 4 October 2026. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the two leaders meet in a run-off four weeks later.
Connected Coverage
The state-by-state picture is in Quaest State Polls Map Brazil’s Divide: Flávio Bolsonaro Takes the North’s Neighbors, Lula the Northeast. Flávio Bolsonaro’s big television night is in our report on his Globo interview, and the earlier statistical tie is in Brazil Presidential Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie. Follow the race on our Brazil hub.
Sources: Vox Brasil poll of 29 August 2026; CNN Brasil; Exame; Metrópoles; Jota; UOL; Brasil de Fato; Datafolha.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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