Israel Election Odds Split on Vote Day
Prediction Markets: Israel
Key Facts
- Prediction markets. Gadi Eizenkot, ex-army chief: 44% on Kalshi (down from 56%), 55% on Polymarket (about flat). 3:30 p.m. ET, 27 Oct 2026.
- Vote. Israelis elect a 120-seat parliament today; a coalition of 61 seats is needed to govern.
- New contract. Kalshi’s “No one” outcome, newly traded, sits at 40% and pulled the main candidates lower.
- Volume. Kalshi traded about 2.4 million contracts in 24 hours; Polymarket about US$7.9 million.
- Next. Official results, then the president picks who tries to form a government.
On the day Israel votes, two major prediction markets disagree about how likely a change of prime minister is.
Traders on Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, now give Gadi Eizenkot, a former army chief, a 44% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, down from 56% at its previous reference price. On Polymarket, a crypto-based platform with more volume, he is at 55%, almost unchanged on the day and up about 5 points on the week.
For US readers the gap matters because it shows how fragile a headline number can be on election day. Israel is a major recipient of US military aid, and who governs it shapes US policy on Gaza, Iran and the wider Middle East.
Two Platforms, Two Stories
Both platforms ask who will be Israel’s prime minister after today’s vote for the Knesset, the 120-seat parliament. Their rules differ in one way that matters tonight.
Kalshi’s list now includes a “No one” outcome, which trades at 40% and appears to have started trading within the last day. The main candidates lost ground at the same moment: Eizenkot fell 12 points, Benjamin Netanyahu 11 and Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, 8.
Polymarket has no such option, and its main market barely moved over 24 hours. Eizenkot is at about 55%, Netanyahu at about 27% and Bennett at about 10%.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prices are in US cents per US$1 contract, so 44 means a 44% implied probability. Thinly traded names can swing several points within minutes.
Readings were taken at 3:30 p.m. ET on 27 October 2026.
- Kalshi (regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC): Eizenkot 44%, Netanyahu 15%, “No one” 40%, Yossi Cohen (a former Mossad spy chief) 5%, Bennett 2%, Avigdor Lieberman (a veteran nationalist politician) 2%.
- Polymarket: Eizenkot 55%, Netanyahu 27%, Bennett 10%, Lieberman 2%.
- Trading: Kalshi had about 2.4 million contracts traded in 24 hours on this event, and Polymarket about US$7.9 million, from US$63.5 million overall.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
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Why the Odds Moved
No single trigger was reported for the Kalshi move.What the data does show is arithmetic.A new outcome that holds 40% takes probability from everyone else, so the fall in the named candidates is largely the “No one” contract appearing, not a sudden collapse in support.Kalshi’s rules resolve each candidate’s contract to Yes only if that person becomes prime minister through government formation before 27 October 2027.
Polymarket’s rules require the winner to be formally sworn in, and resolve to “Other” if nobody is by 31 December 2027.The race itself has been close.In recent weeks most polls put Eizenkot’s new Yashar party, a centrist list, level with or just ahead of Likud, Netanyahu’s ruling party, and Netanyahu has called the contest tied.
In Plain English
Eizenkot is a former chief of the Israeli army who leads the Yashar party. Netanyahu is the current prime minister and leads Likud, the ruling party.
The catch: voters choose parties, not a prime minister. The person who can build a majority of 61 seats gets the job, usually weeks later.
What It Means for US Readers
Do not read today’s Kalshi number as a verdict. Most of the drop comes from a new outcome entering the book, and the larger Polymarket market is steady.
Prediction markets guess who wins the vote, but the prime minister is decided later in coalition talks. Israel’s president asks one lawmaker to try to form a government, who normally has 28 days, with a possible extension of up to 14 days.
Washington’s dealings with Israel on military aid, Gaza and Iran will stay with the current government until a new one is sworn in.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Argentina’s President Javier Milei is a close ally of Netanyahu, so a change of government would be watched in Buenos Aires. Our earlier report covers that relationship.
Colombia broke diplomatic relations with Israel in 2024 and restored them under its new government this year. We found no prediction market that prices a change in either country’s stance, and none tied to an African country.
What Is Not Known
We do not know why Kalshi’s “No one” contract opened, who is trading it, or whether it will stay near 40%. Final results, turnout and exit polls were not available when we wrote this.
We also do not know which party leader the president will task first, or how long coalition talks will last. For deeper context, read our 2026 elections overview and our report on Israel-Iran ceasefire odds.
See all our market coverage on the Prediction Markets hub. Kalshi and Polymarket are third-party exchanges, and their prices are bets, not forecasts by The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favoured to be Israel's next prime minister, according to the markets?
Gadi Eizenkot, a former army chief, leads on both platforms at 3:30 p.m. ET on 27 October: 55% on Polymarket and 44% on Kalshi. Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister, is at about 27% and 15%.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different numbers?
They list different outcomes. Kalshi lists a “No one” contract, now 40%, which takes probability away from the main candidates, while Polymarket's market has no such option.
Does the election winner become prime minister tonight?
No. Israel's president asks one lawmaker to try to form a government, and that person normally has 28 days, with a possible extension of up to 14 days.
Are prediction markets the same as polls?
No. They are real-money bets, not surveys of voters, and they can be wrong or thinly traded. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator.
How many seats does a party bloc need to govern?
The Knesset, Israel's parliament, has 120 seats, so a coalition needs 61 for a majority.
Sources
Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 27 October 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET) · Knesset (knesset.gov.il) · Polymarket and Kalshi published contract rules
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief