Key Facts
—Stocks. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, closed down 13.88% at 176,608 points.
—Currency. The dollar ended at about 5.41 reais (R$5.41), up 8.4% from R$4.99 on Friday.
—Pause. B3 halted trading with a circuit breaker, the first since March 2020.
—Why. Markets had bet on a win by his rival; President Lula won re-election on Sunday.
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
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Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
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Brazil woke up on Monday to a stock market in free fall, a day after re-electing its president. By the closing bell, the Ibovespa had lost 13.88% of its value in a single session, its biggest daily fall since March 2020.
The index ended at 176,608 points, down from 205,082.56 on Friday. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated the conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, in Sunday’s runoff, an outcome many investors had not priced in; for the wider picture, see our guide to Brazil’s economy.
In Plain English
Ibovespa: the main gauge of Brazilian stocks, like the S&P 500 for Brazil. B3: the São Paulo exchange where Brazilian shares trade.
Circuit breaker: an automatic pause in trading after a steep fall, meant to stop panic selling. Real: Brazil’s currency.
How Bad Was the Day?
At its worst the index touched 169,516 points, a fall of 17.34% from Friday’s close. The losses were so fast that B3 triggered its circuit breaker, a step it had last used in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit markets.
The pause did not stop the slide for long. Shares recovered a little by midday and closed about 4% above the day’s low, but still far below where they started.
Friday’s close of 205,082.56 sat only a little below the index’s record close of 209,067 points on 9 October. Monday wiped out the rally of recent weeks in a few hours.
Who Lost Most, and Who Gained?
Banks and the state oil company took the heaviest blows. Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s largest private bank, fell by double digits, while Petrobras, the state-run oil giant, lost about 8%.
A few companies that earn dollars rose against the tide. Vale, the iron-ore miner, gained about 4%, and Suzano, a pulp and paper exporter, jumped about 10%.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-13.88%
176,608.23
-13.88%
69,647.80
-0.33%
10,575.59
-1.59%
3,017,221
—
2,505.04
-1.38%
57,093.72
+0.04%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,608.23 | -13.88% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Why Did the Real Sink Too?
The dollar peaked at R$5.60 during the day and closed near R$5.41. A weaker real makes imports and dollar debts costlier for Brazilian firms, while it helps exporters.
Stocks and the currency fell together, a pattern that often means investors are pulling money out. That double blow is what makes Monday’s move so painful for investors who hold Brazilian assets in dollars.
What It Means for US Readers
Americans who own Brazil through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), a fund tracking large Brazilian companies, saw it close down 19.8% at US$34.15 on Monday. Holders of Brazilian companies traded in New York as American depositary receipts face the same repricing, with the weaker real on top.
Measured in dollars, the Ibovespa lost roughly 20% on the day, by our calculation from R$4.99 on Friday and R$5.41 on Monday. That is the number a US investor actually felt.
Travellers and expats gain purchasing power. At R$5.41 per dollar, a R$500 hotel night costs about US$92, against about US$100 on Friday.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear whether the sell-off will extend on Tuesday or whether foreign investors return after the first shock. Nor is it known how the government or the central bank will respond.
Prices here are Monday’s closing levels, which may be revised by later data. This report covers market reaction; official election results come from the TSE, Brazil’s electoral court.
Background: Brazil Runoff: Lula Won 51.8%, Polls Had Flávio Ahead.
Background: Brazil Tax Reform 2026 Replaces Five Taxes With Two VATs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did the Ibovespa fall on Monday?
The Ibovespa closed down 13.88% at 176,608 points on 26 October. At its low it was down 17.34%.
What happened to the Brazilian real?
The dollar rose about 8.4% to roughly R$5.41, from R$4.99 on Friday. It touched R$5.60 earlier in the session.
Sources: B3 trading data and circuit-breaker rules · TSE (electoral court) results · market prices for the Ibovespa, the dollar, Itaú, Petrobras, Vale, Suzano and EWZ, 26 October
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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