Brazil Election Data Room: Poll Database, Charts and Embeds
This data room holds every national runoff poll published since Brazil’s first round on 4 October, 26 so far, in a form that journalists, researchers and other sites can download, embed and cite. Each row carries the pollster, release date, fieldwork dates, sample size, margin of error and the valid-vote shares for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
The numbers are rebuilt every hour from our own poll tracker and market feeds. For the story behind them, read our Brazil election polls tracker and the Brazil election 2026 runoff guide.
Key Facts
—Poll database. 26 national runoff polls from 14 pollsters since the first round on 4 October, with sample, margin and valid-vote shares for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
—Poll average. Flávio 51.1%, Lula 48.9% of valid votes, the latest poll of each of 14 pollsters, unweighted; Flávio leads in 23 of 26 polls.
—Free to use. Download the data as CSV or JSON, or embed two live cards, with a link back to this page.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices Flávio at 77% and Lula at 22.5%; Kalshi at 78% and 21% (11:40 a.m. ET on 20 October 2026).
—Updated. Poll files last changed 20 October 2026, 10:45 a.m. ET; markets refresh every 20 minutes.
Latest Poll Average
The average of the latest poll from 14 pollsters stands at Flávio 51.1% and Lula 48.9% of valid votes, a lead of 2.2 points for Flávio. Flávio leads in 23 of the 26 runoff polls, Lula in 2, and 1 are tied.
Download the Poll Data
Both files list one row per poll, newest first, with ISO dates (YYYY-MM-DD), UTF-8 text and a header row. Percentages are shares of valid votes unless a column name says all answers.
26 rows · poll files last changed 20 October 2026, 10:45 a.m. ET · CSV · JSON
Column guide
poll_id unique key · pollster, pollster_group (same institute under two names counts once) · description client or format · release_date, fieldwork_start, fieldwork_end ISO dates · sample_size, mode, margin_of_error_pts, confidence_level_pct · lula_valid_pct, flavio_valid_pct shares of valid votes, lead_flavio_pts their gap · lula_all_answers_pct, flavio_all_answers_pct shares including undecided where published · valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times true when we removed blank, spoiled and undecided answers · tse_registration registration number at the electoral court · report_url our report where one exists.
Runoff Poll Database
Polls are listed newest first, each with the pollster’s own fieldwork dates and its TSE registration number. Where a pollster published only figures for all answers, we removed blank, spoiled and undecided answers ourselves and mark the row.
Prediction Markets Snapshot
At 11:40 a.m. ET on 20 October 2026, Polymarket priced Flávio at 77% and Lula at 22.5%, with about US$188.9 million traded on the market. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, priced Flávio at 78% and Lula at 21%.
Prediction markets let traders buy contracts that pay US$1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 77 cents reads as a 77% chance. Prices move within minutes, so see our Brazil election odds page for the latest.
Embed the Charts on Your Site
Two free cards update on their own, so the numbers on your page stay current without any work from you. Copy the code, paste it into your page’s HTML and keep the “Data: The Rio Times” link that appears inside each card.
Poll Average and Latest Polls
This card shows the poll average and the five newest runoff polls. It is responsive from 360 to 800 pixels and follows the reader’s light or dark setting.
<iframe src="https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/rt-embed/br-poll-average.html" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;max-width:640px;" loading="lazy" title="Brazil runoff poll average and latest polls, data by The Rio Times"></iframe>
Live Results Card
This card shows the official count from the electoral court (TSE) once it starts. Until then it reads “Counting starts Sunday, 25 October, 4 p.m. ET”.
<iframe src="https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/rt-embed/br-live-results.html" width="100%" height="380" style="border:0;max-width:640px;" loading="lazy" title="Brazil runoff live results, data by The Rio Times"></iframe>
How the Poll Average Works
The poll average is the simple mean of the most recent national runoff poll from each pollster, expressed as shares of valid votes. Valid votes leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, which is how Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) counts the result.
A pollster that appears under two names, such as PoderData and PoderData/Aya, counts once, with only its newest poll used. A poll enters the average when we register it in the tracker, and the same pollster’s older poll then drops out.
Where a pollster published only figures for all answers, we recalculated valid-vote shares by removing the blank, spoiled and undecided answers, and the row says so. Sample sizes, margins and fieldwork dates come from each poll’s published release, and the TSE registration number is listed where we have it.
Limits of the Average
The average is not a forecast, and it does not weight pollsters by size, method or past accuracy. A small online poll and a large face-to-face poll count the same.
Polls differ in method, from phone and online panels to in-person interviews, and fieldwork can end days before release. The average therefore always lags events, including debates and news that came after the interviews.
In the first round on 4 October, the final polls placed Flávio two to five points below his official 47.03% of valid votes, and a similar error could repeat. Each poll carries a margin of error of one to three points, and averaging does not remove a bias that many polls share.
Cite This Data
Please credit The Rio Times and link to this page whenever you use the data, the charts or the embeds. The data is free to use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (CC BY 4.0).
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I use this Brazil election poll data for free?
Yes. You can download the CSV or JSON, or embed the cards, as long as you credit The Rio Times with a link to this page.
How often is the Brazil runoff poll database updated?
The files are rebuilt every hour, at 50 minutes past the hour, from our poll tracker. A poll appears once the tracker lists it, which can lag its release.
How is the Brazil runoff poll average calculated?
It is the simple mean of the latest national runoff poll from each pollster, in valid votes. Pollsters are not weighted, and the average is not a forecast.
More Brazil Election Coverage
For the story behind the numbers, read the Brazil election 2026 runoff guide, the Brazil election polls tracker and the Brazil election odds page. For timing and the count, see Brazil runoff date and results start and Brazil election results.