BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Poll released Friday, 23 October, around 5 p.m. ET · Source: Datafolha
Key Facts
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 55% of valid votes and Lula 45% in Brazil’s Federal District.
- What changed Flávio is up 2 points and Lula down 1 in raw totals since the previous Datafolha release for the district.
- Fieldwork 910 voters interviewed on 20–22 October, with a 3-point margin of error.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (23 October, 8:14 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 23% and 24%), as of 23 October, 10:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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A new Datafolha poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro 55% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45% among voters in Brazil’s Federal District. Datafolha released it on Friday 23 October, around 5 p.m. ET (6 p.m. in Brasília), two days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
The Federal District is the territory around the capital, Brasília, and this is a local survey, not a national one. It adds one more data point to our Brazil election polls tracker, which lists every survey.
What the Federal District Poll Found
Datafolha interviewed 910 voters in the Federal District on 20, 21 and 22 October, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points at 95% confidence, Metrópoles reported. Globo and Folha de S.Paulo commissioned the survey.
In raw totals, Flávio has 51% and Lula 42%, with 6% voting blank, null or for neither and 1% giving no answer, according to Jornal de Brasília. Setting those answers aside gives the 55% to 45% split in valid votes, the figure that matches how official results are counted.
How Voters Rate the Government
Half of Federal District voters, 50%, rate Lula’s government as bad or very bad, up 4 points from the previous survey, Metrópoles reported. Some 30% rate it excellent or good, and 19% call it regular.
On Lula’s work as president, 55% disapprove and 42% approve, against 52% and 45% in the earlier poll. The shift fits the small move in vote intention between the two Federal District surveys.
How This Compares With the National Picture
Datafolha’s latest national runoff survey showed a tie at 50% each in valid votes, Revista Factual reported. The Federal District result therefore leans more conservative than the country as a whole.
A state or district poll covers far fewer people than a national one, so its margin of error is wider. It describes one place, not the nationwide race that decides the presidency.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (23 October, 8:14 p.m. ET). The national market has drawn about US$193 million in bets, while a thinly traded side market on the Federal District, with only US$12,774 in bets, prices Flávio at 98.4% to finish first there.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new surveys. See our Brazil election odds page for the latest prices.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.9% · Lula 22.5% (US$194 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 24%
As of 23 October, 10:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, polls like this feed expectations before the vote. A local result that confirms a conservative lead matters less than the national average, which Datafolha puts at a tie.
For anyone tracking US-Brazil ties, the winner on Sunday will set the tone of relations with Washington for the next four years. Treat one district as a signal, not a forecast.
What Is Not Known
Datafolha’s coverage does not say how many Federal District voters might still change their minds before Sunday. The changes since the previous release are 2 points for Flávio and 1 point for Lula, within the margin of error.
It is also unknown how turnout in the Federal District will compare with the national average. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the Datafolha poll in Brazil’s Federal District?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 55% of valid votes against 45% for Lula. In raw totals it is 51% to 42%.
What is the Federal District?
It is the territory that contains Brasília, Brazil’s capital. It is not part of any of the 26 states.
What is the margin of error?
The margin is 3 percentage points at 95% confidence. Datafolha interviewed 910 voters on 20–22 October.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. See our Brazil runoff date guide for results timing.
Does this poll predict the national result?
No, it covers only the Federal District. The national race is far closer, with Datafolha showing a 50% tie in valid votes.
Sources: Metrópoles, 23 October 2026; Jornal de Brasília, 23 October 2026; Acorda DF, 23 October 2026; Soubrasilia, 23 October 2026; Revista Factual, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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